Jürgen Scheffran
Biographic Data
| ID | 227573 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jürgen Scheffran |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jürgen |
| FAMILY NAME | Scheffran |
| SIGNATURE | SCHEFFRAN J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Universität Hamburg |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7171-3062 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 71 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 249 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 67 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 4 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1970 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 10 |
Climate obstruction and nationalism: A conceptual map
Nationalism is notoriously an ideology that can fit opposite ideological and political necessities. Since 2020, an emerging literature exploring nationalism’s connections with climate change has developed. Yet, nationalism’s role in the decisive practice of climate obstruction has hitherto not been conceptually mapped. This integrative review inductively analyses various forms of nationalism, focusing on each form’s role in climate obstruction an…
Integrating broad and deep multiple-stressor research: A framework for translating across scales and disciplines
Publisher of over 50 scientific journals across the life, physical, earth, and health sciences, both independently and in partnership with scientific societies including Cell, Neuron, Immunity, Current Biology, AJHG, and the Trends Journals
Sustainable use of a smartphone and regulatory needs
The significance of information and communication technologies (ICT) for the Paris Climate Agreement is continuously increasing because of its growing energy consumption. Here we examine the question for the smartphone and extend the investigation to more aspects of sustainability. Critical issues are identified for ten UN Sustainable Development Goals. Measurements of smartphone energy consumption show that a significant savings potential can be…
Impact of Land Cover Changes on Reducing Greenhouse Emissions: Site Selection, Baseline Modeling, and Strategic Environmental Assessment of Redd + Projects
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is way key to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) while also protecting vulnerable forest ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to recognize suitable areas for REDD+ Programme projects and calculate the reduction in CO 2 emissions through the prevention of forest cover degradation in the Central Hyrcanian forests. For this purpose, the cover changes of the Central…
Social capital and farmers’ leadership in Iranian rural communities: Application of social network analysis
This study aimed to analyze the role of social capital and leadership in improving the adaptive capacity of Iranian pistachio farmers by using Social Network Analysis (SNA). The results indicate that the studied network is not a dense network, and there are few reciprocal and face-to-face relations among farmers. The findings also illustrate that in all cooperative links, there were no noticeable bridging links among the farmers and their tendenc…
National ecological conservation versus local development: The triggering effects of forest transition on urban shrinkage
Agricultural expansion and its impacts on climate change: Evidence from Iran
Agricultural land conversion and ecosystem services loss: A meta-analysis
Limits to the Anthropocene: Geopolitical conflict or cooperative governance
In the Anthropocene the world is facing an acceleration of human growth and its impact on nature. The expansionist world order which emerged from Europe since colonial times is reaching multiple limits (environmental, economic, social, political and scientific-technical), increasing marginal costs and risks which trigger multiple crises, conflicts and catastrophes that challenge this world order. Alternative futures range from a collapse of human…
Urban Planning of Coastal Adaptation under Sea-Level Rise: An Agent-Based Model in the Viable Framework
Coastal flood risk and sea-level rise require decisions on investment in coastal protection and, in some cases, the relocation of urban areas. Models that formalize the relations between flooding costs, protective investments, and relocation can improve the analysis of the processes and issues involved and help to support decision-making better. In this paper, an agent-based model of a coastal city is represented in NetLogo. This model is based o…
From a climate–security nexus to conflict-sensitive climate actions for peacebuilding and human security
The climate change and security nexus is an evolving area of research and policy. At the outset of work in this field, major research concentrated on how climate change is adversely impacting human well-being. However, in recent years, academics began to reflect critically on the social, cultural and political construction of vulnerabilities and developing understandings of climate change as a risk multiplier. Different aspects of the conflict–se…
Climate change and security nexus
This article was published open access under a CC BY licence: https://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0
Simulating exposure-related human mobility behavior at the neighborhood-level under Covid-19 in Porto Alegre, Brazil
Climate-related disasters and agricultural land conversion: Towards prevention policies
Climate-related disasters (CRDs) and hazards such as droughts, floods, and storms are the main patterns of natural events in long-term weather cycles which are potentially affected by climate change. Unsustainable use of land has contributed to the increase of vulnerability to natural disasters. Disasters and land use change have become major concerns all over the world. Agricultural land conversion (ALC) has been identified as one of the most si…
Sustainable agriculture in Northeastern India: How do tribal farmers perceive and respond to climate change
India’s monsoon dependent agriculture is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and inadequate policies contribute to socio-economic difficulties in farming communities. Many current policies and strategies to combat climate change impacts are focused on technical aspects of adaptations whereas little research is done to understand the socio-economic dimensions, particularly the perspectives of farmers. To address this gap, we conduc…
Migration and the 2030 Agenda
L’(in)sécurité planétaire vue par le réseau de la Planetary Security Initiative: Une approche critique de l’expertise face à l’Anthropocène
Dans la quête de la sécurité planétaire comme réponse aux défis de l’Anthropocène, nous contribuons à rapprocher la théorie et la pratique par le biais d’une évaluation critique de la Planetary Security Initiative – l’Initiative pour la sécurité planétaire (PSI), un consortium d’experts composé de cinq instituts. La PSI vise à améliorer la prise de conscience politique, à renforcer l’interface entre la connaissance et la politique, et à créer une…
One year of the Covid-19 pandemic in the Global South: Uneven vulnerabilities in Brazilian cities
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil provided one of the most severe examples of its impacts on health and society. The country had death rates above the global average and acute impacts in increased unemployment, poverty, and threats to food security marked along ethnic and social lines. This study asks how different degrees of vulnerability between Brazilian cities lead to varying survival probabilities of their population in the p…
Unequal Landscapes: Vulnerability Traps in Informal Settlements of the Jacuí River Delta (Brazil)
How just are risk responses that worsen vulnerability in the long term? Should the urban poor be left with self-reliance when facing hazards in the Anthropocene? This research investigates urban development and vulnerability in the Anthropocene. While it is known that informal settlements face greater hazards than most urbanized areas, there are different landscapes of risk. The analysis explores divergent risk-response strategies among household…
A Two-Period Model of Coastal Urban Adaptation Supported by Climate Services
Coastal zones are experiencing rapid urbanization at unprecedented rates. At the same time, coastal cities are the most prone to climate-related vulnerability, including impacts of sea-level rise and climate-related coastal hazards under the present and projected future climate. Decision making about coastal urban climate adaptation can be informed by coastal climate services based on modeling tools. We develop a two-period coastal urban adaptati…
Analyzing forest residents' perception and knowledge of forest ecosystem services to guide forest management and biodiversity conservation
Functional transition of cultivated ecosystems: Underlying mechanisms and policy implications in China
Resilience of human settlements against landslide risk: The case of Kurdistan Province, Iran
This study aimed to identify the problems and challenges facing the resilience of landslide areas using the strategic approach of futures studies (futurology) and its scenarios. Methodologically, this study is novel as it applied the mixed‐method (qualitative‐quantitative) analysis based on the futures studies approach to explore the efficient resilience scenarios of human settlements against landslide risks in the Kurdistan Province, Iran. This …
Disaggregated validation of disaster-resilience indicators using household survey data: A case study of Hong Kong
Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: Cascading effects and telecoupling
The Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping elements. Physical and social forces can lead to tipping points and cascading effects via feedbacks and telecoupling, but the current generation of climate-economy models do not generally take account of these interactions and fee…
Cooperation and Co-Existence Between Farmers and Herders in the Midst of Violent Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Ghana
Despite periodic violent conflict between farmers and Fulani herders in many parts of Ghana, cooperative relations between them remain strong. They are "cultural neighbors" who cooperate both in times of violent conflict and during periods of no conflict. Cooperation between them is expressed through everyday interactions, cattle entrustment, resource sharing, trade, friendship, intermarriages, visitations, exchanges, communal labor, and social s…
Adaptation to climate change and its impacts on food productivity and crop income: Perspectives of farmers in rural Pakistan
Securitization of media reporting on climate change? A cross-national analysis in nine countries
Security implications of climate change have been highlighted by various political and advisory bodies, as well as non-governmental organizations (NGOs), in recent years. It is unclear, however, whether such a ‘securitization’ of climate change can also be found beyond institutionalized politics in the public realm, and beyond Western countries. This article addresses these questions by investigating mass media coverage in nine countries over a p…
Vulnerability of informal settlements in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change
Rapid urbanization and climate change together increase the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards, undermining urban resilience. It is therefore critical to identify and deepen our understanding of the main variables, and the complex interactions between them, producing and shaping the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards. Identifying factors that challenge or support the efforts of these communities in …
Impacts of changing urban land-use structure on sustainable city growth in China: A population-density dynamics perspective
On climate, conflict and cumulation: Suggestions for integrative cumulation of knowledge in the research on climate change and violent conflict
Possible links between climate change and intra-state violent conflict have received major scholarly attention in recent years. But with few exceptions there is still a low level of consensus in this research field. The article argues that one reason for this disagreement is a lack of integrative cumulation of knowledge. Such an integrative cumulation is prevented by three obstacles, which have until now hardly been discussed in the literature. T…
Violent climate or climate of violence? Concepts and relations with focus on Kenya and Sudan
Addressing deficits of current research on the link between climate change and violent conflict, this article aims to contribute to a more systematic understanding of the violence concept in the context of environmental change. We present a theoretical framework and potential pathways between climate change and violence and an agent-based approach to assess the interplay between capabilities and motivations for violence and the conditions for con…
On exposure, vulnerability and violence: Spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda
Disentangling the Climate-conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways
Recent research has provided new insights into the relationship between climate change and violent conflict. In this review we compare the results, methodologies, and data applied in the peer-reviewed literature to recap the current state of the debate. While long-term historical studies suggest a coincidence between climate variability and armed conflict, empirical findings are less conclusive for recent periods. Disentangling the climate-confli…
Conceptualizing ConflictSpace: Toward a Geography of Relational Power and Embeddedness in the Analysis of Interstate Conflict
The concept of ConflictSpace facilitates the systematic analysis of interstate conflict data. Building on relational theories of power, we identify the spatiality of conflict as a combination of territorial and network embeddedness. The former is modeled through spatial analysis and the latter by social network analysis. A brief empirical example of the spread of World War I illustrates how the position of states within physical and network space…
Resilience and environmental security: Towards joint application in peacebuilding
Resilience is a widely used concept among development, environmental, security and peacebuilding organizations. However, resilience has rarely been applied in conjunction with the potentially complementary concept of environmental security. Therefore, this paper explores how the concepts of resilience and environmental security can be jointly applied by non-governmental organizations working to implement peacebuilding projects in developing count…
The ConflictSpace of Cataclysm: The International System and the Spread of War 1914-1917
Social network analysis is used to show that underlying systemic structuremade war more likely to spread in 1914 than earlier in the century.The changing network density of three diffusion processes is seenas crucial--alliances, interstate rivalries, and territorial disputes.The findings show that the density of each of these factors increasedin the system in varying degrees from 1900 to the end of 1913. Howthe three diffusion processes interacte…
Functional transition of cultivated ecosystems: Underlying mechanisms and policy implications in China
Methods for Long-Term Environmental Policy Challenges
This article provides a concise overview of methods for analyzing policy choices that have been used in the study of long-term environmental challenges. We open with an overview of the broad classes of methods used for long-term policy analysis, and subsequent sections will describe in depth three particular methods. They are: statistical models, such as employed in the debate on the environmental Kuznets curve, which infer past patterns from dat…
Pathways to water conflict during drought in the Mena region
As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1996 and 2009. It is also the firs…
Diversity and Multiple Drivers of Pastoral Fulani Migration to Ghana
The relationship between environmental change and migration has generated considerable scholarly debate. In part the literature suggests that climate change in the Sahel is ‘forcing’ pastoralist groups (mainly Fulani) to migrate to semi-arid West African countries, including Ghana, due to resource scarcity and climatic conditions. Using interviews, focus-group discussions and observations, this article argues that beyond theoretical postulations …
A social network analysis of internally displaced communities in northeast Nigeria: Potential conflicts with host communities in the Lake Chad region
In this study, we aim to analyze social networks in which internally displaced persons (IDPs) are involved in northeast Nigeria, after they have been displaced by the insurgency of the Boko Haram group. While IDPs usually resettle in camps operated by the government, contacts with host communities are common. We further analyze the potential that such contacts may lead to conflicts between IDPs and their host communities in the Lake Chad region. …
Agricultural land fragmentation in Iran: Application of game theory
Resilience of small-scale societies: A View From Drylands
Balbo, A. L., E. Gómez-Baggethun, M. Salpeteur, A. Puy, S. Biagetti, and J. Scheffran. 2016. Resilience of small-scale societies: a view from drylands. Ecology and Society 21(2):53.http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08327-210253
Analyzing forest residents' perception and knowledge of forest ecosystem services to guide forest management and biodiversity conservation
A local to global perspective on oil and wind exploitation, resource governance and conflict in Northern Kenya
In north-western Kenya, significant oil reserves have been discovered and the first oil trucks have left Turkana County in June 2018. On the east side of Lake Turkana, the largest wind power project on the African continent was completed in mid-2017. This article applies a local to global perspective to explore the benefits and externalities for the local communities living in close proximity to the oil and wind exploitation sites. A particular f…
An Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulating Human Exposure to Environmental Stresses in Urban Areas
Several approaches have been used to assess potential human exposure to environmental stresses and achieve optimal results under various conditions, such as for example, for different scales, groups of people, or points in time. A thorough literature review in this paper identifies the research gap regarding modeling approaches for assessing human exposure to environment stressors, and it indicates that microsimulation tools are becoming increasi…
Limits to the Anthropocene: Geopolitical conflict or cooperative governance
In the Anthropocene the world is facing an acceleration of human growth and its impact on nature. The expansionist world order which emerged from Europe since colonial times is reaching multiple limits (environmental, economic, social, political and scientific-technical), increasing marginal costs and risks which trigger multiple crises, conflicts and catastrophes that challenge this world order. Alternative futures range from a collapse of human…
Urban Planning of Coastal Adaptation under Sea-Level Rise: An Agent-Based Model in the Viable Framework
Coastal flood risk and sea-level rise require decisions on investment in coastal protection and, in some cases, the relocation of urban areas. Models that formalize the relations between flooding costs, protective investments, and relocation can improve the analysis of the processes and issues involved and help to support decision-making better. In this paper, an agent-based model of a coastal city is represented in NetLogo. This model is based o…
A Two-Period Model of Coastal Urban Adaptation Supported by Climate Services
Coastal zones are experiencing rapid urbanization at unprecedented rates. At the same time, coastal cities are the most prone to climate-related vulnerability, including impacts of sea-level rise and climate-related coastal hazards under the present and projected future climate. Decision making about coastal urban climate adaptation can be informed by coastal climate services based on modeling tools. We develop a two-period coastal urban adaptati…
Climate Change, Security Risks, and Violent Conflicts: Essays from Integrated Climate Research in Hamburg
Research on security-related aspects of climate change is an important element of climate change impact assessments. Hamburg has become a globally recognized center of pertinent analysis of the climate-conflict-nexus. The essays in this collection present a sample of the research conducted from 2009 to 2018 within an interdisciplinary cooperation of experts from Universität Hamburg and other institutions in Hamburg related to the research group "…
New Rules in Outer Space: Options and Scenarios
Agent-Based Computational Modelling
Microsimulation of household cycles.- Agent-Based Computational Modelling: An Introduction.- Socio-Economics.- Agent-Based Modelling - A Methodology for the Analysis of Qualitative Development Processes.- On the Analysis of Asymmetric Directed Communication Structures in Electronic Election Markets.- Population and Demography.- The Role of Assortative Mating on Population Growth in Contemporary Developed Societies.- An Agent-Based Simulation Mode…
Agent-Based Computational Modelling: Applications in Demography, Social, Economic and Environmental Sciences (Contributions to Economics)
Ecological and economic sustainability in fishery management: A multi-agent model for understanding competition and cooperation
Methods for Long-Term Environmental Policy Challenges
This article provides a concise overview of methods for analyzing policy choices that have been used in the study of long-term environmental challenges. We open with an overview of the broad classes of methods used for long-term policy analysis, and subsequent sections will describe in depth three particular methods. They are: statistical models, such as employed in the debate on the environmental Kuznets curve, which infer past patterns from dat…
Conceptualizing ConflictSpace: Toward a Geography of Relational Power and Embeddedness in the Analysis of Interstate Conflict
The concept of ConflictSpace facilitates the systematic analysis of interstate conflict data. Building on relational theories of power, we identify the spatiality of conflict as a combination of territorial and network embeddedness. The former is modeled through spatial analysis and the latter by social network analysis. A brief empirical example of the spread of World War I illustrates how the position of states within physical and network space…
Security Risks of Climate Change: Vulnerabilities, Threats, Conflicts and Strategies
The ConflictSpace of Cataclysm: The International System and the Spread of War 1914-1917
Social network analysis is used to show that underlying systemic structuremade war more likely to spread in 1914 than earlier in the century.The changing network density of three diffusion processes is seenas crucial--alliances, interstate rivalries, and territorial disputes.The findings show that the density of each of these factors increasedin the system in varying degrees from 1900 to the end of 1913. Howthe three diffusion processes interacte…
Forum on the Spread of War, 1914-1917: A Dialogue between Political Scientists and Historians
The First World War has been the most studied war of any in human history. In part this has been because of its impact and in part because of the complicated and rich theoretical questions it raised. It would seem that little could be said that has not been said before. This is hardly the case, as new evidence still comes to light and new methodologies arise that have not yet been applied. This forum hopes to add to our insights about the First W…
Climate Change and Violent Conflict
Current debates over the relation between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena.
Migration as a contribution to resilience and innovation in climate adaptation: Social networks and co-development in Northwest Africa
Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict: Challenges for Societal Stability
Severe droughts, damaging floods and mass migration: Climate change is becoming a focal point for security and conflict research and a challenge for the world’s governance structures. But how severe are the security risks and conflict potentials of climate change? Could global warming trigger a sequence of events leading to economic decline, social unrest and political instability? What are the causal relationships between resource scarcity and v…
Disentangling the Climate-conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways
Recent research has provided new insights into the relationship between climate change and violent conflict. In this review we compare the results, methodologies, and data applied in the peer-reviewed literature to recap the current state of the debate. While long-term historical studies suggest a coincidence between climate variability and armed conflict, empirical findings are less conclusive for recent periods. Disentangling the climate-confli…
One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict
A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analys…
Migration as an Adaptation Strategy and its Gendered Implications: A Case Study From the Upper Indus Basin
Natural resource-dependent isolated mountain communities are highly vulnerable to climatic and environmental stresses, and migration is often the most important livelihood diversification strategy for insuring a household against shocks. In this paper, we present some key results from a study conducted in the West Karakoram region of Pakistan to assess the influence of environmental shocks on migration and the effect of remittances on the adaptiv…
On climate, conflict and cumulation: Suggestions for integrative cumulation of knowledge in the research on climate change and violent conflict
Possible links between climate change and intra-state violent conflict have received major scholarly attention in recent years. But with few exceptions there is still a low level of consensus in this research field. The article argues that one reason for this disagreement is a lack of integrative cumulation of knowledge. Such an integrative cumulation is prevented by three obstacles, which have until now hardly been discussed in the literature. T…
Violent climate or climate of violence? Concepts and relations with focus on Kenya and Sudan
Addressing deficits of current research on the link between climate change and violent conflict, this article aims to contribute to a more systematic understanding of the violence concept in the context of environmental change. We present a theoretical framework and potential pathways between climate change and violence and an agent-based approach to assess the interplay between capabilities and motivations for violence and the conditions for con…
On exposure, vulnerability and violence: Spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda
Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: The case of Punjab province, Pakistan
Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the countries negatively affected by climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data from 450 households collected from three districts in…
Securitization of media reporting on climate change? A cross-national analysis in nine countries
Security implications of climate change have been highlighted by various political and advisory bodies, as well as non-governmental organizations (NGOs), in recent years. It is unclear, however, whether such a ‘securitization’ of climate change can also be found beyond institutionalized politics in the public realm, and beyond Western countries. This article addresses these questions by investigating mass media coverage in nine countries over a p…
Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan
Change in Environmental Benefits of Urban Land Use and Its Drivers in Chinese Cities, 2000–2010
Driven by rising income and urban population growth, China has experienced rapid urban expansion since the 1980s. Urbanization can have positive effects on the urban environment; however, improvement of urban environment quality, especially its divergence between relatively developed and undeveloped cities in China, is currently a rather rudimentary and subjective issue. This study analyzed urban environmental benefits among China's prefectural c…
Adaptation to climate change and its impacts on food productivity and crop income: Perspectives of farmers in rural Pakistan
Resilience of small-scale societies: A View From Drylands
Balbo, A. L., E. Gómez-Baggethun, M. Salpeteur, A. Puy, S. Biagetti, and J. Scheffran. 2016. Resilience of small-scale societies: a view from drylands. Ecology and Society 21(2):53.http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08327-210253
Geography (44 works) · Economics (43 works) · Climate change (32 works) · Ecology (30 works) · Political science (30 works) · Business (29 works) · Environmental resource management (27 works) · Computer Science (23 works) · Environmental Science (20 works) · Sociology (19 works)