Pathways to water conflict during drought in the Mena region
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3915939 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Tobias Ide (0000-0001-8401-2372, University of Melbourne & and Murdoch University, corresponding author), Miguel Rodríguez Lopez (0000-0003-0573-0689, Universität Hamburg), Juan Miguel Rodriguez Lopez (0000-0003-4409-2173, Universität Hamburg), Christian Fröhlich (0000-0002-1802-0419, German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), corresponding author), Jürgen Scheffran (0000-0002-7171-3062, Universität Hamburg) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 58 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 568-582 |
| Publication date | 2021-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343320910777 |
| OpenAlex | W3038275008 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 22 |
| References cited | 80 |
As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1996 and 2009. It is also the first such analysis that focuses on small-scale conflicts involving little or no physical violence, such as protests or demonstrations. These nonviolent conflicts are politically relevant, yet understudied in the literature on climate change and conflict, environmental security, and political instability. We employ the method of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to integrate quantitative and qualitative data at various scales (national, regional, local) for a sample of 34 cases (17 of which experienced conflict onset). Our findings show that pre-existing cleavages and either autocratic political systems or cuts of the public water supply are relevant predictors of nonviolent, water-related conflict onset during droughts. Grievances deeply embedded into socio-economic structures in combination with a triggering event like a drought or water cuts are hence driving such water-related conflicts, especially in the absence of proper political institutions. We thus argue that drought-conflict links are highly context-dependent even for nonviolent, local conflicts, hence challenging determinist narratives that claim direct interlinkages between climate change, hydro-meteorological disasters and conflict
Autocracy · Climate change · Conflict resolution · Conflict resolution research · Context (archaeology) · Democracy · Geography · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Regime change · Sociology · Water resources · Water security · Ecology · Hydropower, Displacement, Environmental Impact · Political Conflict and Governance · Transboundary Water Resource Management
Qualitative Comparative Analysis
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Disasters triggered by natural hazards and terrorism
Contention, cooperation, and context
Unraveling the spatial patterns of water conflicts in Africa through a multi-scale lens
Arid fields where conflict grows
Pathways to instability
Gender in the Climate-Conflict Nexus
The forest policy outputs of regional regimes
How climate volatility influences human rights
Climate change and Australia’s national security
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Storms, floods, landslides and elections in India's growing metropolises
Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints
QCA in International Relations
A critical review of the state-of-the-art on social policy, conflict and peace in the Middle East and North Africa region
Water conflicts under climate change
Barking up the tree wrongly? How national security strategies frame climate and other environmental change as security issues
Sudden weather disasters as triggers for ethnic protest in autocracies
Climatic extremes, violent conflicts, and population change in China in 1741-1910
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Social Media and the Organization of Collective Action
Climate Change and Violent Conflict
The Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Qualitative Comparative Analysis using Fuzzy Sets (fsQCA)
How Dictatorships Work
Why civil resistance works
Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria
Set-Theoretic Methods for the Social Sciences
Power in Movement
Beyond greed and grievance
Climate Wars? A Systematic Review of Empirical Analyses on the Links between Climate Change and Violent Conflict
The Multiple Layers of Environmental Injustice in Contexts of (Un)natural Disasters
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Research methods for exploring the links between climate change and conflict
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Toward a constructivist understanding of socio-environmental conflicts
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Climate shocks and political violence
Flood-Induced Displacement and Civil Conflict
Natural Disasters
Why Civil Resistance Works
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The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising
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The Political Ecology of Peasant-Herder Conflicts in the Northern Ivory Coast
Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions
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Conditions for Peace and Conflict
A Two-Stage Approach to Civil Conflict
Trends and triggers
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Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hell and high water
Making sense of violence in civil war
Security and discourse
Social media in the 2011 Egyptian uprising
How are they othered? Globalisation, identity and violence in an Indian city
Disasters, climate change, and securitisation
War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993-2009
Does environmental peacemaking between states work? Insights on cooperative environmental agreements and reconciliation in international rivalries
Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa
Conflict ecologies
Mapping the frontiers and front lines of global environmental justice
Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya's drylands
Prio-Grid
Collecting data on nonviolent action
Don't blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict
Weathering unrest
From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet
The Kilosa Killings
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
Often Trusted but Never (Properly) Tested
Combining QCA and Process Tracing in Set-Theoretic Multi-Method Research
The Comparative Advantages of fsQCA and Regression Analysis for Moderately Large-N Analyses
Assessing the Robustness of Crisp-set and Fuzzy-set QCA Results
Standards of Good Practice in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Fuzzy-Sets
Framing Processes and Social Movements
| Unique citing works | 22 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,4 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 22 |