Ulrich Pilster
Biographic Data
| ID | 310080 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Ulrich Pilster |
| GIVEN NAMES | Ulrich |
| FAMILY NAME | Pilster |
| SIGNATURE | PILSTER U |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Essex |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 14 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 269 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 14 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2010 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2020 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
Afghanistan: Peace through Power-Sharing
After forty years of war, peace may finally be possible in Afghanistan. As of February 2020, US-Taliban talks are at the verge of a breakthrough. In those negotiations, the United States is seeking
Authoritarian regimes and civil–military relations: Explaining counterbalancing in autocracies
How do autocracies structure their civil–military relations? We contend that personalist dictators are more strongly associated with counterbalancing than other authoritarian regime types. Personalists are characterized by weak institutions and narrow support bases, a lack of unifying ideologies and informal links to the ruler. They thus have strong incentives to coup-proof and, as we contend, counterbalancing seems particularly attractive. Quant…
Pitfalls of Professionalism? Military Academies and Coup Risk
Military academies tend to be strongly linked to the professionalization of the armed forces. This explains why many countries in the world have created such institutions. The following article studies a potential negative externality stemming from military schools: increased coup risk. We argue that military academies may create, inculcate, and strengthen cohesive views that could conflict with incumbent policies, and that these schools establis…
Naval Forces and Civil-Military Relations
While the importance of navies for international affairs is widely documented, their influence in domestic politics remains less understood. This research offers a comparative account of how states’ naval forces affect civil-military relations. Does the navy matter for military attempts to seize government power? Urban populations, especially middle class elements in the capital city, are more capable (if willing) of creating opportunities for th…
Counterbalancing, Spatial Dependence, and Peer Group Effects
Previous studies identified several domestic factors that may influence a country’s level of structural coup-proofing, i.e., counterbalancing strategies that shall prevent internal groups from seizing power via acoup d’état. We suggest that a country’s level of counterbalancing is also affected by such policies in what we term countries’ “peer groups.” When deciding the appropriate level of counterbalancing, rulers may be affected by external inf…
The Differentiation of Security Forces and the Onset of Genocidal Violence
Which factors drive the onset of genocidal violence? While the previous literature identified several important influences, states' military capabilities for conducting mass-killings and the structure of their security forces have received surprisingly little attention so far. The authors take this shortcoming as a motivation for their research. A theoretical framework is developed, which argues that more differentiated security forces, that is, …
Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency
While there were several relatively short uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East during the Arab Spring, the dispute between the rebels and government forces in Syria has evolved into a full-scale civil war. We try to predict the length of the Syrian insurgency with a three-stage technique. Using out-of-sample techniques, we first assess the predictive capacity of 69 explanatory variables for insurgency duration. After determining the m…
The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes
Coup-proofing pertains to political leaders’ strategies that will prevent groups inside or outside the state apparatus from seizing power via a coup d’état. One particular form of these strategies divides a country’s military into rivaling organizations, thereby creating an artificial balance between and structural obstacles for the armed forces. Despite the general claim that this institutional coup-proofing is indeed effective, a recent empiric…
Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001
Several studies have claimed that changes in the political leadership of a country affect foreign policy decision making. The following paper systematically tests this in the context of states’ participation in military coalition operations. By building on previous theoretical models, the authors argue that new leaders may differ from their predecessors in that the former (i) have dissimilar preferences with regard to the involvement in military …
Do Democracies Engage Less in Coup-Proofing? On the Relationship between Regime Type and Civil-Military Relations 1: Regime Type and Coup-Proofing
The existing literature on military effectiveness established the robust claim that democracies are more successful and effective in winning interstate wars. One mechanism that explains this relationship heavily draws upon the underlying effect of regime type on civil-military relations. Still, this relationship has not yet been explored systematically, and rigorous empirical research on this issue remains surprisingly scarce. In order to address…
Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99
This study examines the influence of civil–military relations on military effectiveness. More specifically, we investigate how coup-proofing, that is, the strategies and tactics employed to prevent the military from seizing power, affects battlefield performance. The main argument claims that coup-proofing has a negative impact on soldiers’ leadership qualities, initiative, and the ability to coordinate different military units. Ultimately, the h…
Are Democracies the Better Allies? The Impact of Regime Type on Military Coalition Operations
This study asks which attributes make states the more valuable partners in military coalition operations. Due to the uncertainty inherent in combat in general and coalition operations in particular, successful military cooperation depends on the amount of discretion given to national armed forces. Since democracies usually have more harmonious civil-military relations, restricting the discretion of military agents is a relatively less attractive …
Book Notes
International Environmental Regimes: Legalisation, Flexibility and Effectiveness
In one of the first quantitative designs, we explore the impact of both legalisation and flexibility on regime effectiveness, using data on international environmental institutions. One of the main implications is that 'precision' is an important determinant of regime performance. If the rule and norm system is well defined, well understood and clear, then a regime tends to be more effective in addressing an environmental problem. We do not find …
Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99
This study examines the influence of civil–military relations on military effectiveness. More specifically, we investigate how coup-proofing, that is, the strategies and tactics employed to prevent the military from seizing power, affects battlefield performance. The main argument claims that coup-proofing has a negative impact on soldiers’ leadership qualities, initiative, and the ability to coordinate different military units. Ultimately, the h…
The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes
Coup-proofing pertains to political leaders’ strategies that will prevent groups inside or outside the state apparatus from seizing power via a coup d’état. One particular form of these strategies divides a country’s military into rivaling organizations, thereby creating an artificial balance between and structural obstacles for the armed forces. Despite the general claim that this institutional coup-proofing is indeed effective, a recent empiric…
Do Democracies Engage Less in Coup-Proofing? On the Relationship between Regime Type and Civil-Military Relations 1: Regime Type and Coup-Proofing
The existing literature on military effectiveness established the robust claim that democracies are more successful and effective in winning interstate wars. One mechanism that explains this relationship heavily draws upon the underlying effect of regime type on civil-military relations. Still, this relationship has not yet been explored systematically, and rigorous empirical research on this issue remains surprisingly scarce. In order to address…
Pitfalls of Professionalism? Military Academies and Coup Risk
Military academies tend to be strongly linked to the professionalization of the armed forces. This explains why many countries in the world have created such institutions. The following article studies a potential negative externality stemming from military schools: increased coup risk. We argue that military academies may create, inculcate, and strengthen cohesive views that could conflict with incumbent policies, and that these schools establis…
Authoritarian regimes and civil–military relations: Explaining counterbalancing in autocracies
How do autocracies structure their civil–military relations? We contend that personalist dictators are more strongly associated with counterbalancing than other authoritarian regime types. Personalists are characterized by weak institutions and narrow support bases, a lack of unifying ideologies and informal links to the ruler. They thus have strong incentives to coup-proof and, as we contend, counterbalancing seems particularly attractive. Quant…
Are Democracies the Better Allies? The Impact of Regime Type on Military Coalition Operations
This study asks which attributes make states the more valuable partners in military coalition operations. Due to the uncertainty inherent in combat in general and coalition operations in particular, successful military cooperation depends on the amount of discretion given to national armed forces. Since democracies usually have more harmonious civil-military relations, restricting the discretion of military agents is a relatively less attractive …
International Environmental Regimes: Legalisation, Flexibility and Effectiveness
In one of the first quantitative designs, we explore the impact of both legalisation and flexibility on regime effectiveness, using data on international environmental institutions. One of the main implications is that 'precision' is an important determinant of regime performance. If the rule and norm system is well defined, well understood and clear, then a regime tends to be more effective in addressing an environmental problem. We do not find …
Counterbalancing, Spatial Dependence, and Peer Group Effects
Previous studies identified several domestic factors that may influence a country’s level of structural coup-proofing, i.e., counterbalancing strategies that shall prevent internal groups from seizing power via acoup d’état. We suggest that a country’s level of counterbalancing is also affected by such policies in what we term countries’ “peer groups.” When deciding the appropriate level of counterbalancing, rulers may be affected by external inf…
Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001
Several studies have claimed that changes in the political leadership of a country affect foreign policy decision making. The following paper systematically tests this in the context of states’ participation in military coalition operations. By building on previous theoretical models, the authors argue that new leaders may differ from their predecessors in that the former (i) have dissimilar preferences with regard to the involvement in military …
The Differentiation of Security Forces and the Onset of Genocidal Violence
Which factors drive the onset of genocidal violence? While the previous literature identified several important influences, states' military capabilities for conducting mass-killings and the structure of their security forces have received surprisingly little attention so far. The authors take this shortcoming as a motivation for their research. A theoretical framework is developed, which argues that more differentiated security forces, that is, …
Naval Forces and Civil-Military Relations
While the importance of navies for international affairs is widely documented, their influence in domestic politics remains less understood. This research offers a comparative account of how states’ naval forces affect civil-military relations. Does the navy matter for military attempts to seize government power? Urban populations, especially middle class elements in the capital city, are more capable (if willing) of creating opportunities for th…
Afghanistan: Peace through Power-Sharing
After forty years of war, peace may finally be possible in Afghanistan. As of February 2020, US-Taliban talks are at the verge of a breakthrough. In those negotiations, the United States is seeking
Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency
While there were several relatively short uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East during the Arab Spring, the dispute between the rebels and government forces in Syria has evolved into a full-scale civil war. We try to predict the length of the Syrian insurgency with a three-stage technique. Using out-of-sample techniques, we first assess the predictive capacity of 69 explanatory variables for insurgency duration. After determining the m…
International Environmental Regimes: Legalisation, Flexibility and Effectiveness
In one of the first quantitative designs, we explore the impact of both legalisation and flexibility on regime effectiveness, using data on international environmental institutions. One of the main implications is that 'precision' is an important determinant of regime performance. If the rule and norm system is well defined, well understood and clear, then a regime tends to be more effective in addressing an environmental problem. We do not find …
Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99
This study examines the influence of civil–military relations on military effectiveness. More specifically, we investigate how coup-proofing, that is, the strategies and tactics employed to prevent the military from seizing power, affects battlefield performance. The main argument claims that coup-proofing has a negative impact on soldiers’ leadership qualities, initiative, and the ability to coordinate different military units. Ultimately, the h…
Are Democracies the Better Allies? The Impact of Regime Type on Military Coalition Operations
This study asks which attributes make states the more valuable partners in military coalition operations. Due to the uncertainty inherent in combat in general and coalition operations in particular, successful military cooperation depends on the amount of discretion given to national armed forces. Since democracies usually have more harmonious civil-military relations, restricting the discretion of military agents is a relatively less attractive …
Book Notes
Do Democracies Engage Less in Coup-Proofing? On the Relationship between Regime Type and Civil-Military Relations 1: Regime Type and Coup-Proofing
The existing literature on military effectiveness established the robust claim that democracies are more successful and effective in winning interstate wars. One mechanism that explains this relationship heavily draws upon the underlying effect of regime type on civil-military relations. Still, this relationship has not yet been explored systematically, and rigorous empirical research on this issue remains surprisingly scarce. In order to address…
Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001
Several studies have claimed that changes in the political leadership of a country affect foreign policy decision making. The following paper systematically tests this in the context of states’ participation in military coalition operations. By building on previous theoretical models, the authors argue that new leaders may differ from their predecessors in that the former (i) have dissimilar preferences with regard to the involvement in military …
Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency
While there were several relatively short uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East during the Arab Spring, the dispute between the rebels and government forces in Syria has evolved into a full-scale civil war. We try to predict the length of the Syrian insurgency with a three-stage technique. Using out-of-sample techniques, we first assess the predictive capacity of 69 explanatory variables for insurgency duration. After determining the m…
The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes
Coup-proofing pertains to political leaders’ strategies that will prevent groups inside or outside the state apparatus from seizing power via a coup d’état. One particular form of these strategies divides a country’s military into rivaling organizations, thereby creating an artificial balance between and structural obstacles for the armed forces. Despite the general claim that this institutional coup-proofing is indeed effective, a recent empiric…
The Differentiation of Security Forces and the Onset of Genocidal Violence
Which factors drive the onset of genocidal violence? While the previous literature identified several important influences, states' military capabilities for conducting mass-killings and the structure of their security forces have received surprisingly little attention so far. The authors take this shortcoming as a motivation for their research. A theoretical framework is developed, which argues that more differentiated security forces, that is, …
Naval Forces and Civil-Military Relations
While the importance of navies for international affairs is widely documented, their influence in domestic politics remains less understood. This research offers a comparative account of how states’ naval forces affect civil-military relations. Does the navy matter for military attempts to seize government power? Urban populations, especially middle class elements in the capital city, are more capable (if willing) of creating opportunities for th…
Counterbalancing, Spatial Dependence, and Peer Group Effects
Previous studies identified several domestic factors that may influence a country’s level of structural coup-proofing, i.e., counterbalancing strategies that shall prevent internal groups from seizing power via acoup d’état. We suggest that a country’s level of counterbalancing is also affected by such policies in what we term countries’ “peer groups.” When deciding the appropriate level of counterbalancing, rulers may be affected by external inf…
Authoritarian regimes and civil–military relations: Explaining counterbalancing in autocracies
How do autocracies structure their civil–military relations? We contend that personalist dictators are more strongly associated with counterbalancing than other authoritarian regime types. Personalists are characterized by weak institutions and narrow support bases, a lack of unifying ideologies and informal links to the ruler. They thus have strong incentives to coup-proof and, as we contend, counterbalancing seems particularly attractive. Quant…
Pitfalls of Professionalism? Military Academies and Coup Risk
Military academies tend to be strongly linked to the professionalization of the armed forces. This explains why many countries in the world have created such institutions. The following article studies a potential negative externality stemming from military schools: increased coup risk. We argue that military academies may create, inculcate, and strengthen cohesive views that could conflict with incumbent policies, and that these schools establis…
Afghanistan: Peace through Power-Sharing
After forty years of war, peace may finally be possible in Afghanistan. As of February 2020, US-Taliban talks are at the verge of a breakthrough. In those negotiations, the United States is seeking
Political science (13 works) · Law (12 works) · Law (12 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (10 works) · Politics (9 works) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (8 works) · Sociology (8 works) · Political economy (7 works) · Psychology (5 works) · Argument (complex analysis (4 works)