Karl Derouen
Biographic Data
| ID | 325044 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Karl Derouen |
| GIVEN NAMES | Karl |
| FAMILY NAME | Derouen |
| SIGNATURE | DEROUEN K |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Alabama |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 50 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 718 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 50 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1993 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 14 |
Civil War and Intrastate Armed Conflict: Changing Dynamics in International Perspective
Civil wars and intrastate armed conflict are the predominant form of organized violence in the contemporary era. Beyond their direct devastating impact, they fundamentally change societies and are linked to broader global issues and challenges. Taking a thematic approach with a focus on conflict management and peacebuilding, this accessible textbook, written for post-graduate and senior undergraduate courses, engages with recent research and comp…
Are Non-Inclusive Peace Agreements Effective Counter-Insurgency Strategies
Civil wars are complex in ways that challenge effective resolution. Civil war actors tend to be dynamic in nature and often splinter then coalesce over time potentially evolving into multiple dyads pitted against their government. Previous work has demonstrated that when multiple rebel factions emerge, civil wars tend to be longer in duration as satisfying multiple factions tends to be more challenging. However, governments may choose to pursue d…
Civil War Conflict Resolution from the Perspectives of the Practitioner and the Academic
Civil wars are particularly challenging to resolve via mediated negotiations. Practitioners and policy makers employ a variety of approaches to help move warring actors from war to peace. To assist in this process, peace researchers have examined civil war peace processes from a variety of perspectives. In doing so, scholars assume their research will be useful beyond simply accumulating knowledge. It has become evident, however, that the researc…
The Roles of Design and Third Parties on Civil War Peace Agreement Outcomes
This article traces the contours of emerging social science research on the resolution of civil conflict, which has been one of the more prevalent threats to sustainable peace since the Cold War. We present findings from our own research on the design of peace agreements and civil conflict, by first examining whether more elaborate and comprehensive agreements are also more effective, then by looking at the effect of intervention on civil war pea…
Civil War Mediation and Rebel Use of Violence Against Civilians
Violence against civilians is portrayed as an antecedent of civil war, a cause, or both. Civil war creates opportune environments for planning and carrying out these acts that in turn can have detrimental effects on peace processes. Since not all civil war factions will see peace as beneficial, some actors may use violence to undermine the peace talks. The rebels may use indiscriminate violence to demonstrate their ability to exact costs on the g…
The viability of civil war peace agreements
Civil war peace agreements are prone to collapse. While some research suggests that multiple layers of power-sharing provisions lead to more viable agreements, others have suggested that negotiated settlements are not only more likely to return to violence, but that those cases will be more deadly as a result. We suggest here that previous research has failed to address the various ways that peace agreements emerge and that this context is crucia…
Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars
Is US Humanitarian Aid Based Primarily on Need or Self-Interest
The United States has made repeated public commitments to provide humanitarian aid based on need alone. However, some scholars suggest that US self-interest is a stronger predictor of US humanitarian assistance than need. We examine the tension between self-interest and need by studying the allocations made by the US Agency for International Development's Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance for more than 100 developing countries between 1989…
What Makes a State Stable and Peaceful? Good Governance, Legitimacy and Legal-Rationality Matter Even More for Low-Income Countries
This study explores state stability using various governance and development indicators. We find stability is associated with state capacity and public goods, the legal–rational state, legitimacy, good governance and corruption, income/capita and democracy and human rights. In particular, we show the importance of democracy, legitimacy, rule of law and secularity. Environmental degradation and debt dependency undermine stability. Revenue collecti…
Foreign Policy Votes and Presidential Support in Congress: Foreign Policy Votes and Presidential Support
This paper explores the role of foreign policy votes on presidential support in Congress. We postulate that a selection effect is inherent in this topic. Failing to consider that certain factors will influence whether a president takes a position on an issue in the first place can yield misleading results. For instance, presidents might not take positions during lame duck years or when their popularity is low. They might be more willing to take p…
Introducing the Civil Wars Mediation (CWM) dataset
Mediation is one of the few mechanisms the international community can deploy that will affect civil wars. This article introduces the dataset on mediation in civil wars - termed the Civil War Mediation (CWM) dataset. This is the first dataset to focus solely on civil war mediation. These data contribute to the present state of quantitative research on mediation in three important respects: the data are collected for the period of 1946-2004, are …
Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making
Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a psychological approach to foreign policy decision making. This approach focuses on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples, which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, Un…
Politics, Early Warning Systems, and Credit Rating Agencies: Politics, Early Warning Systems, and Credit Rating Agencies
Journal Article Politics, Early Warning Systems, and Credit Rating Agencies Get access Glen Biglaiser, Glen Biglaiser Texas Tech University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Karl DeRouen, Jr., Karl DeRouen, Jr. The University of Alabama Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Candace C. Archer Candace C. Archer Bowling Green State University Search for other works by this aut…
Civil war peace agreement implementation and state capacity
Negotiated civil war terminations differ from their interstate war counterparts in that one side must disarm and cease to exist as a fighting entity. While termination through military victory provides a relatively more enduring peace, many civil wars end with peace agreements signed after negotiations. However, research has shown that the implementation of civil war peace agreements is difficult and prone to collapse. Often these failures are fo…
The Interdependence of U.S. Troop Deployments and Trade in the Developing World
The relationship between political conflict and trade has contributed to a riveting discussion in international relations about whether trade produces conflict, or whether conflict itself reduces trade. Most studies proxy “the flag” using militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). However, extensions of “the flag” might well obtain in environments short of MIDs. A more general way to proxy the flag is troop deployments. The deployment of military tr…
Duration of Peace and Recurring Civil Wars in Southeast Asia and the Pacific
Civil wars in Southeast Asia and the Pacific are perhaps the most intractable in the world and thus merit special attention. We adopt a regional approach for our analysis of the duration of peace after civil war terminations. Our contribution is three-fold: First, we capture all dyads (rebel versus government) rather than lumping multiple dyads into one war. This is appropriate in a region where there are multiple conflicts in a country at any on…
The Duration of Civil War Peace Agreements
The focus of this article is civil war peace agreement duration from 1989 to 2005. Recent work by Hartzell and Hoddie (2003, 2007) has argued that power-sharing provisions have a cumulative impact. In other words, the more power-sharing provisions there are built into an agreement, the greater the prospects for peace. Our basic theoretical premise is that power-sharing provisions that are costlier to government and more difficult to implement wil…
Enduring Internal Rivalries: A New Framework for the Study of Civil War
The enduring rivalry (ER) framework was developed for studying the long-term dynamics of serious conflicts between pairs of states. Here, the logic and structure of that framework is applied to civil wars. Many civil wars are very long and recur often. A new way of thinking of about these long and seemingly interminable internal conflicts emphasizes a dyadic perspective and enduring internal rivalry (EIR). Within this framework, the article demon…
The Link between Protracted Refugee Situations and Civil War in Africa: Encouraging a New Direction for Research
Most of the refugees in the world today are mired in protracted refugee situations (PRS). While PRS around the world last for years with no apparent solution on the horizon, the problem is especially prominent in Africa where traditional refugee protection approaches and solutions are not working. This study applies an innovative framework recently developed to study civil war to the analysis of PRS. The enduring rivalry framework was developed f…
Following the Flag: Troop Deployment and U.S. Foreign Direct Investment
In contrast to the 19th and early 20th centuries, the effects of security factors on foreign direct investment (FDI) have received limited interest in the post-Cold War era. Using panel data for 126 developing countries between 1966 and 2002, and controlling for macroeconomic conditions, economic reforms, and level of democratization, this essay tests the effects of “follow the flag” variables on U.S. FDI. Security factors can affect FDI in two s…
Sovereign Bond Ratings and Neoliberalism in Latin America
The importance of credit rating agencies (CRAs) in rating sovereign bonds has grown as developing countries increasingly issue bonds to attract foreign capital. Although in their methodologies CRAs claim that the initiation of neoliberal reforms influences bond ratings, given the secrecy surrounding ratings, it is unclear what impact reforms actually have on CRAs. Controlling for macroeconomic and political determinants, we use statistical analys…
Sovereign Bonds and the “Democratic Advantage: Does Regime Type Affect Credit Rating Agency Ratings in the Developing World
The importance of sovereign bond ratings has grown recently as assessments by credit rating agencies (CRAs) influence the cost of capital. Understanding how CRAs determine country ratings is difficult based on the secretive nature of these agencies. Controlling for the common explanations in the literature, we use panel data and interviews to investigate the role of the “democratic advantage” and other determinants on bond ratings set by Moody's …
Economic Reforms and Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America
This paper seeks to explain the effect of different economic reforms for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America. Controlling for macroeconomic and good governance factors, we find that governments that implement economic reforms are not always more likely to attract FDI inflows. Instead, attempts to minimize expropriation risk complement domestic financial and trade reforms, which enhances foreign investor interest. Elements …
Arab Behaviour Towards Israel: Strategic Avoidance or Exploiting Opportunities
Scholars often observe that the foreign policies of states are not made in a vacuum but rather are determined or moulded to a significant degree by the external and internal actions of rivals. Domestic unrest is often considered a potential impetus for changing strategic behaviour. Leaders may be tempted to employ force externally to divert attention away from domestic unrest. The intended result is a ‘rally round the flag’ effect that culminates…
The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948-1998: The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior
Rivalry-related issues tend to dominate the foreign policy agenda of states in enduring rivalries. Thus, the enduring rivalry research program provides an important framework for foreign policy analysis. This paper probes the domestic elements of strategic interaction in the three main Middle Eastern rivalries: Israel–Egypt, Israel–Jordan, and Israel–Syria. The empirical tests probe whether the number of parties represented in Israel's cabinet an…
The Indirect Link: Politics, the Economy, and the Use of Force
This study ascertains the extent to which domestic politics and the state of the national economy are relevant factors to U.S. presidents faced with the decision to use force during international crises. The author tests a diversionary theory of the use of force that treats the relationship between politics and the use of force as nonrecursive and that considers both the incentives and the constraints faced by the president. To analyze the politi…
Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note
This study represents an attempt at further developing the diversionary theory of force. The analysis covers the period 1949 to 1994 using a simultaneous system of equations that treat presidential approval and force as endogenous variables. After controlling for opportunities and Soviet/Russian crisis behavior, the model reveals a rally effect and that unemployment has a positive effect on force levels. I discuss how presidential decisions to di…
Following the Flag: Troop Deployment and U.S. Foreign Direct Investment
In contrast to the 19th and early 20th centuries, the effects of security factors on foreign direct investment (FDI) have received limited interest in the post-Cold War era. Using panel data for 126 developing countries between 1966 and 2002, and controlling for macroeconomic conditions, economic reforms, and level of democratization, this essay tests the effects of “follow the flag” variables on U.S. FDI. Security factors can affect FDI in two s…
Sovereign Bonds and the “Democratic Advantage: Does Regime Type Affect Credit Rating Agency Ratings in the Developing World
The importance of sovereign bond ratings has grown recently as assessments by credit rating agencies (CRAs) influence the cost of capital. Understanding how CRAs determine country ratings is difficult based on the secretive nature of these agencies. Controlling for the common explanations in the literature, we use panel data and interviews to investigate the role of the “democratic advantage” and other determinants on bond ratings set by Moody's …
The Duration of Civil War Peace Agreements
The focus of this article is civil war peace agreement duration from 1989 to 2005. Recent work by Hartzell and Hoddie (2003, 2007) has argued that power-sharing provisions have a cumulative impact. In other words, the more power-sharing provisions there are built into an agreement, the greater the prospects for peace. Our basic theoretical premise is that power-sharing provisions that are costlier to government and more difficult to implement wil…
Introducing the Civil Wars Mediation (CWM) dataset
Mediation is one of the few mechanisms the international community can deploy that will affect civil wars. This article introduces the dataset on mediation in civil wars - termed the Civil War Mediation (CWM) dataset. This is the first dataset to focus solely on civil war mediation. These data contribute to the present state of quantitative research on mediation in three important respects: the data are collected for the period of 1946-2004, are …
Israeli Military Actions and Internalization-externalization Processes
As a manifestation of its self-reliance doctrine, the state of Israel has acted unilaterally in the military realm throughout its history. Several scholars have also linked Israeli actions to elections and the economy in the context of diversionary theory. Hypotheses derived from earlier empirical work on internalization-externalization linkages and additional causal hypotheses are tested to enhance diversionary theory. Vector autoregression (VAR…
Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory
Poliheuristic (PH) theory models foreign policy decisions using a two-stage process. The first step eliminates alternatives on the basis of a simplifying heuristic. The second step involves a selection from amongthe remaining alternatives and can employ a more rational and compensatory means of processing information. The PH model posits that strategic/realist factors are more important in the second step of the process. The model is tested for t…
The political incentive explanation of “democratic peace”: Evidence from experimental research
In this paper, we summarize a series of experimental studies that show that democracies don't fight each other because their leaders have very few political incentives to do so. The use of force against other democracies is perceived by the public and by leaders of democratic states as a failure of foreign policy. The reliance of democratic leaders on public support decreases therefore the likelihood of the use of force against other democracies
Civil war peace agreement implementation and state capacity
Negotiated civil war terminations differ from their interstate war counterparts in that one side must disarm and cease to exist as a fighting entity. While termination through military victory provides a relatively more enduring peace, many civil wars end with peace agreements signed after negotiations. However, research has shown that the implementation of civil war peace agreements is difficult and prone to collapse. Often these failures are fo…
The Dynamics of Diversion: The Domestic Implications of Presidential Use of Force
Several studies report evidence of diversionary behavior by presidents, while others dispute findings that suggest domestic politics are part of the use of force decision calculus. We argue that previous studies of U.S. force short of war have failed to articulate what diversion actually means. We approach this important debate from a perspective that brings to bear presidential agenda-setting theory. Rather than treating the use of force solely …
Is US Humanitarian Aid Based Primarily on Need or Self-Interest
The United States has made repeated public commitments to provide humanitarian aid based on need alone. However, some scholars suggest that US self-interest is a stronger predictor of US humanitarian assistance than need. We examine the tension between self-interest and need by studying the allocations made by the US Agency for International Development's Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance for more than 100 developing countries between 1989…
Sovereign Bond Ratings and Neoliberalism in Latin America
The importance of credit rating agencies (CRAs) in rating sovereign bonds has grown as developing countries increasingly issue bonds to attract foreign capital. Although in their methodologies CRAs claim that the initiation of neoliberal reforms influences bond ratings, given the secrecy surrounding ratings, it is unclear what impact reforms actually have on CRAs. Controlling for macroeconomic and political determinants, we use statistical analys…
The Expansion of Neoliberal Economic Reforms in Latin America
This article seeks to explain why most Latin American countries have expanded market-oriented reforms since the 1980s despite their generally disappointing economic results. To explain deepening liberal economic reform, we test panel data for 15 Latin American countries from 1980 to 1995, using Beck and Katz' panel-corrected standard errors regression. Controlling for several competing explanations, we find that, except under fragmented party sys…
Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation
This paper looks at how violent ethnic conflicts are managed. The paper separates ethnic civil wars from the more general class of ethnic conflicts. More specifically, we examine these conflicts, and seek to understand the extent to which mediation can play an effective role in managing such conflicts, and which factors have the most impact on its performance and effectiveness. We set up a theoretical framework from which we derive several propos…
Enduring Internal Rivalries: A New Framework for the Study of Civil War
The enduring rivalry (ER) framework was developed for studying the long-term dynamics of serious conflicts between pairs of states. Here, the logic and structure of that framework is applied to civil wars. Many civil wars are very long and recur often. A new way of thinking of about these long and seemingly interminable internal conflicts emphasizes a dyadic perspective and enduring internal rivalry (EIR). Within this framework, the article demon…
Military Expenditures, Technological Change, and Economic Growth in the East Asian NICs
In the last 30 years the East Asian NICs (Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand) have experienced significant economic and technological expansion alongside increases in military spending. We derive a production function model that is sensitive to both technological progress and the defense sector. We employ the model to assess the relationship between military spending, economic growth, and technological change in the East Asian…
The Interdependence of U.S. Troop Deployments and Trade in the Developing World
The relationship between political conflict and trade has contributed to a riveting discussion in international relations about whether trade produces conflict, or whether conflict itself reduces trade. Most studies proxy “the flag” using militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). However, extensions of “the flag” might well obtain in environments short of MIDs. A more general way to proxy the flag is troop deployments. The deployment of military tr…
Putting the Numbers to Work: Implications for Violence Prevention
By analysing international crisis behaviour from 1918 to 1994, this study seeks a better understanding of the factors that make interstate and intrastate crises endure and escalate into violence. Observations are crisis actors drawn from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset. The analysis indicates that an actor is more likely to use violence in a crisis if there is social unrest in that country; if it is contiguous to its main adversar…
Defense Contracting and Domnestic Politics
Scholars have investigated the relationship between defense spending and domestic political constraints. Because of a two-year time lag, however, it is difficult to make a theoretical link between the aggregate defense budget and domestic politics. We focus on defense contract awards because of their rapid turn-around. We advance the referendum model to account for variations in the timing of defense contracts within administrations. The referend…
What Makes a State Stable and Peaceful? Good Governance, Legitimacy and Legal-Rationality Matter Even More for Low-Income Countries
This study explores state stability using various governance and development indicators. We find stability is associated with state capacity and public goods, the legal–rational state, legitimacy, good governance and corruption, income/capita and democracy and human rights. In particular, we show the importance of democracy, legitimacy, rule of law and secularity. Environmental degradation and debt dependency undermine stability. Revenue collecti…
The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948-1998: The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior
Rivalry-related issues tend to dominate the foreign policy agenda of states in enduring rivalries. Thus, the enduring rivalry research program provides an important framework for foreign policy analysis. This paper probes the domestic elements of strategic interaction in the three main Middle Eastern rivalries: Israel–Egypt, Israel–Jordan, and Israel–Syria. The empirical tests probe whether the number of parties represented in Israel's cabinet an…
Mediation in Internationalized Ethnic Conflicts: Assessing the Determinants of a Successful Process
This article examines how internationalized ethnic conflicts, traditionally the most difficult form of conflict, can be managed and resolved. The case is made that mediation is particularly relevant in such contexts of intractable conflicts. The paper develops a framework of mediation and presents the significant features that may affect its outcome by examining an original data set on international mediation events. The findings from an analysis…
Defense spending and economic growth in Latin America: The externalities effects
In an early study of the impact of defense spending on economic growth in Latin America, it was suggested that the military burden hampered growth (Lieuwen, 1962). Recent studies, however, have found the relationship to be positive (Biswas and Ram, 1986; Frederiksen and Looney, 1983). The present study differs from those by considering the relationship between “guns and growth” over time, and by looking at both the overall and externality effects…
Arab Behaviour Towards Israel: Strategic Avoidance or Exploiting Opportunities
Scholars often observe that the foreign policies of states are not made in a vacuum but rather are determined or moulded to a significant degree by the external and internal actions of rivals. Domestic unrest is often considered a potential impetus for changing strategic behaviour. Leaders may be tempted to employ force externally to divert attention away from domestic unrest. The intended result is a ‘rally round the flag’ effect that culminates…
The political incentive explanation of “democratic peace”: Evidence from experimental research
In this paper, we summarize a series of experimental studies that show that democracies don't fight each other because their leaders have very few political incentives to do so. The use of force against other democracies is perceived by the public and by leaders of democratic states as a failure of foreign policy. The reliance of democratic leaders on public support decreases therefore the likelihood of the use of force against other democracies
Defense spending and economic growth in Latin America: The externalities effects
In an early study of the impact of defense spending on economic growth in Latin America, it was suggested that the military burden hampered growth (Lieuwen, 1962). Recent studies, however, have found the relationship to be positive (Biswas and Ram, 1986; Frederiksen and Looney, 1983). The present study differs from those by considering the relationship between “guns and growth” over time, and by looking at both the overall and externality effects…
Mathematical models of foreign policy decision-making: Compensatory vs. noncompensatory
Arab-Israeli Defense Spending and Economic Growth
Research on the nexus between defense spending and economic growth in the Third World has generated discrepant findings. This debate takes on added relevance in the wake of recent substantive moves toward peace in the Middle East. This study considers the relationship between defense spending and economic growth over time in the Middle East. It also addresses the externality effects defense spending has on the economies. Contextual factors such a…
The Indirect Link: Politics, the Economy, and the Use of Force
This study ascertains the extent to which domestic politics and the state of the national economy are relevant factors to U.S. presidents faced with the decision to use force during international crises. The author tests a diversionary theory of the use of force that treats the relationship between politics and the use of force as nonrecursive and that considers both the incentives and the constraints faced by the president. To analyze the politi…
Carter and Arms Sales. Joanna Spear
Military Expenditures, Technological Change, and Economic Growth in the East Asian NICs
In the last 30 years the East Asian NICs (Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand) have experienced significant economic and technological expansion alongside increases in military spending. We derive a production function model that is sensitive to both technological progress and the defense sector. We employ the model to assess the relationship between military spending, economic growth, and technological change in the East Asian…
Defense Contracting and Domestic Politics
Defense Contracting and Domnestic Politics
Scholars have investigated the relationship between defense spending and domestic political constraints. Because of a two-year time lag, however, it is difficult to make a theoretical link between the aggregate defense budget and domestic politics. We focus on defense contract awards because of their rapid turn-around. We advance the referendum model to account for variations in the timing of defense contracts within administrations. The referend…
Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note
This study represents an attempt at further developing the diversionary theory of force. The analysis covers the period 1949 to 1994 using a simultaneous system of equations that treat presidential approval and force as endogenous variables. After controlling for opportunities and Soviet/Russian crisis behavior, the model reveals a rally effect and that unemployment has a positive effect on force levels. I discuss how presidential decisions to di…
The Guns-Growth Relationship in Israel
Israel has one of the highest defense burdens in the world because of security threats and the related need for domestic defense production in the face of uncertain suppliers. Its vote-conscious leaders also react to the domestic political implications of economic performance. Leaders must maintain a healthy growth rate while guarding against inflation. This milieu of sometimes competing phenomena operates in one of the most volatile regions in t…
U.S. Foreign Policy in the Korean Peninsula
Presidents and Defense Contracting, 1953-1992
We analyze the politics of the U.S. defense budget from 1953 to 1992. Institutional factors make it impractical for the president to use aggregate defense spending politically. For this reason, we focus on defense prime contract awards (PCA) because they are removed from public opinion, do not require congressional approval and can be precisely timed. We assess differences in contracting behavior between presidential administrations. The model we…
Modernization and the Military in Latin America
In the 1950s modernization began to be an important paradigm for Latin American development. Early modernization theory depicted the economies of Latin America as traditional and underdeveloped. The theme of technological progress runs consistently through the modernization model. The purpose of this article is to assess an important question raised by Latin American development studies: that large allocations for the military sector are conduciv…
The Dynamics of Diversion: The Domestic Implications of Presidential Use of Force
Several studies report evidence of diversionary behavior by presidents, while others dispute findings that suggest domestic politics are part of the use of force decision calculus. We argue that previous studies of U.S. force short of war have failed to articulate what diversion actually means. We approach this important debate from a perspective that brings to bear presidential agenda-setting theory. Rather than treating the use of force solely …
Israeli Military Actions and Internalization-externalization Processes
As a manifestation of its self-reliance doctrine, the state of Israel has acted unilaterally in the military realm throughout its history. Several scholars have also linked Israeli actions to elections and the economy in the context of diversionary theory. Hypotheses derived from earlier empirical work on internalization-externalization linkages and additional causal hypotheses are tested to enhance diversionary theory. Vector autoregression (VAR…
A Nested Game Approach to Political and Economic Liberalization in Democratizing States: The Case of South Korea
South Korea enjoyed high rates of economic growth until the mid-1990s. However in mid-1997 the country went into a severe economic crisis which ultimately resulted in a request for an IMF bailout. Leading up to the crisis, the government had embarked upon democratic liberalization but not much economic liberalization. This research explores why the government would lay the foundation for political reform with-out creating institutions capable of …
The Decision Not to Use Force at Dien Bien Phu: A Poliheuristic Perspective
The foreign policy decision-making literature has largely ignored nonevents. However, the study of nonevents can make decision-making theory richer by broadening its explanatory powers. Nonevent emphasis will provide valuable information for, as Holsti (1992, 453) asserts, "[s]olid evidence about contemporary non-events is, to understate the case, rather hard to come by." One means of probing nonevents is through the case study. The main merit of…
Analysis
The modernisation model of economic development assumed that foreign capital was a necessary catalyst for transforming societies. Dependency theorists, however, often point to its detrimental effects, especially in regard to economic domination. Much of the quantitative dependency literature has tended to focus on US foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America. Maintaining that line of inquiry, this article assesses the role of FDI in relati…
Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory
Poliheuristic (PH) theory models foreign policy decisions using a two-stage process. The first step eliminates alternatives on the basis of a simplifying heuristic. The second step involves a selection from amongthe remaining alternatives and can employ a more rational and compensatory means of processing information. The PH model posits that strategic/realist factors are more important in the second step of the process. The model is tested for t…
The Expansion of Neoliberal Economic Reforms in Latin America
This article seeks to explain why most Latin American countries have expanded market-oriented reforms since the 1980s despite their generally disappointing economic results. To explain deepening liberal economic reform, we test panel data for 15 Latin American countries from 1980 to 1995, using Beck and Katz' panel-corrected standard errors regression. Controlling for several competing explanations, we find that, except under fragmented party sys…
Mediation in Internationalized Ethnic Conflicts: Assessing the Determinants of a Successful Process
This article examines how internationalized ethnic conflicts, traditionally the most difficult form of conflict, can be managed and resolved. The case is made that mediation is particularly relevant in such contexts of intractable conflicts. The paper develops a framework of mediation and presents the significant features that may affect its outcome by examining an original data set on international mediation events. The findings from an analysis…
The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948-1998: The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior
Rivalry-related issues tend to dominate the foreign policy agenda of states in enduring rivalries. Thus, the enduring rivalry research program provides an important framework for foreign policy analysis. This paper probes the domestic elements of strategic interaction in the three main Middle Eastern rivalries: Israel–Egypt, Israel–Jordan, and Israel–Syria. The empirical tests probe whether the number of parties represented in Israel's cabinet an…
Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation
This paper looks at how violent ethnic conflicts are managed. The paper separates ethnic civil wars from the more general class of ethnic conflicts. More specifically, we examine these conflicts, and seek to understand the extent to which mediation can play an effective role in managing such conflicts, and which factors have the most impact on its performance and effectiveness. We set up a theoretical framework from which we derive several propos…
Presidential Mandates and the Dynamics of Senate Advice and Consent, 1885-1996
We examine the dynamics of Senate advice and consent for executive branch nominations from 1885 to 1996 using multinomial logit and hazard analysis. We add to the literature by considering the importance of elections on the process. In particular, we assess how presidential mandates might influence the duration and success of nominations to the executive branch. The analysis captures political nuances previously unconsidered that follow from the …
Political science (49 works) · Law (37 works) · Economics (36 works) · Politics (32 works) · Law (27 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (21 works) · Political economy (20 works) · Sociology (16 works) · Development economics (13 works) · Spanish Civil War (13 works)