John Mueller
Biographic Data
| ID | 3620799 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John Mueller |
| GIVEN NAMES | John |
| FAMILY NAME | Mueller |
| SIGNATURE | MUELLER J |
| AFFILIATIONS | The Ohio State University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8569-8414 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 63 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 527 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 63 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1974 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 12 |
Is the decline of war a delusion? An exchange between researchers following the publication of Azar Gat’s article on the subject
Scénario catastrophe: Désordre Après La Guerre Froide
Alors que les problèmes majeurs qui ont tourmenté le monde au cours du dernier demi-siècle ont été résolus, la recherche de sujets d’inquiétude s’est poursuivie sans relâche. L’idée s’est répandue que les affaires internationales sont devenues, d’une manière ou d’une autre, particulièrement tumultueuses, instables et complexes. Pour parvenir à une telle conclusion, cinq techniques ont été appliquées : le passé a été simplifié, un biais eurocentri…
Public opinion as a driver of the national security state
Social Futuring, Modern and Ancient
This article reviews and compares two approaches to the new, holistic, and multidisciplinary concept “Social Futuring,” which are expressed in two indices based on this concept, entitled the “Social Futuring Index” and the “Human Flourishing Index” (HFI). Broadly speaking, the Social Futuring Index is indebted to the broader context of modern social sciences, while the Human Flourishing Index attempts to update the scholastic moral philosophy, wh…
Terrorism and Bathtubs: Comparing and Assessing the Risks
The likelihood that anyone outside a war zone will be killed by an Islamist extremist terrorist is extremely small. In the United States, for example, some six people have perished each year since 9/11 at the hands of such terrorists—vastly smaller than the number of people who die in bathtub drownings. Some argue, however, that the incidence of terrorist destruction is low because counterterrorism measures are so effective. They also contend tha…
Pax Americana” Is a Myth: Aversion to War Drives Peace and Order
On May 15, 1984, the countries in Europe had largely managed to remain at peace with each other for the longest continuous stretch of time since the days of the Roman Empire. 1 That rather amazing
Whatever Happened to Drama? A Configurational–Comparative Analysis of Genre Trajectory in American Cinema, 1946–2013
Although usually conceived of and studied as individual types, genres are frequently combined in practice. This research examines how genres are combined in popular American films, and how the popularity of particular combinations changed between 1946 and 2013. Distinguishing between “contextual genres” (which identify a film's subject matter) and “affective genres” (which identify a film's intent), we find marked differences between the postwar …
The curse of the Black Swan
When unexpected and emotion-engaging events become Black Swans and carry an 'extreme impact,' this derives not so much those qualities or from their intrinsic size or importance as from reaction, or overreaction, they generate; but one that is often as extreme and unpredictable as the event itself. Most consequential development in human history, however, stems not from such events, but from changes in thinking and behavior that are gradual and o…
Good-Bye to All That
Terrorism and counterterrorism in the US: The question of responsible policy-making
Officials serving the public are tasked at the most fundamental level to spend funds in a manner that most effectively and efficiently keeps people safe. To do otherwise is irresponsible and, because human lives are at stake, immoral. In the case of counterterrorism policy-making, it is important to evaluate the degree to which any gains in security afforded by counterterrorism measures have been great enough to justify their cost. Risk analysis …
Did History End? Assessing the Fukuyama Thesis
Journal Article Did History End? Assessing the Fukuyama Thesis Get access John Mueller John Mueller Ohio State University JOHN MUELLER is a political scientist at Ohio State University and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. His most recent books are War and Ideas and (with Mark Stewart) Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Benefits, Risks, and Costs of Homeland Security. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google S…
Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending
In this article, we present a simple back-of-the-envelope approach for evaluating whether counterterrorism security measures reduce risk sufficiently to justify their costs. The approach uses only four variables: the consequences of a successful attack, the likelihood of a successful attack, the degree to which the security measure reduces risk, and the cost of the security measure. After measuring the cost of a counterterrorism measure, we explo…
Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking: Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion
This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk-averse because of the catastrophic…
The Terrorism Delusion: America's Overwrought Response to September 11
The reaction of Americans to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, has been massively disproportionate to the actual threat posed by al-Qaida either as an international menace or as an inspiration or model for homegrown amateurs. An examination of the activities of international and domestic terrorist “adversaries” reveals that exaggerations and distortions of the threat have inspired a determined and expensive quest to ferret out, and eve…
Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security
In seeking to evaluate the efficacy of post-9/11 homeland security expenses—which have risen by more than a trillion dollars, not including war costs—the common query has been, "Are we safer?" This, however, is the wrong question. Of course we are "safer"—the posting of a single security guard at one building's entrance enhances safety. The correct question is, "Are any gains in security worth the funds expended?" This book applies risk and cost-…
Capitalism, Peace, and the Historical Movement of Ideas
A logical and causal exploration of the growing acceptance of capitalism and peace, or war aversion, is part of what Robert Dahl has called “the historical movement of ideas.” Although war aversion and the acceptance of free-market capitalism have undergone parallel and substantially overlapping historical trajectories, support for capitalism does not on its own logically or necessarily imply war aversion or support for peace. Not only must capit…
Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland
Some general parameters are proposed for evaluating homeland security measures that seek to make potential targets notably less vulnerable to terrorist attack, and these are then applied to specific policy considerations. Since the number of targets is essentially unlimited, since the probability that any given target will be attacked is near zero, since the number and competence of terrorists is limited, since target‐selection is effectively a n…
War Has Almost Ceased to Exist: An Assessment
Journal Article War Has Almost Ceased to Exist: An Assessment Get access John Mueller John Mueller JOHN MUELLER is a professor of political science at Ohio State University. His most recent books are The Remnants of War, Overblown, and the forthcoming Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 124, Issue 2, Summer 2009,…
Security, Muscularity and Morality: Three Comments on Etzioni
Democracy has become increasingly accepted over the last two centuries, but the process has mostly been one of persuasion, fashion leadership, and luck, not forceful evangelism. Although democracy can sometimes be established by force, this has generally not worked well when favorable conditions are absent. Intervention for the purpose of restoring basic security where it is severely threatened or under attack is unlikely to happen much, held bac…
Misdiagnosis [with Reply]
Is There Still a Terrorist Threat: The Myth of the Omnipresent Enemy
Force, legitimacy, success, and Iraq
Having apparently abandoned war as a device for settling their own quarrels, developed countries, in the wake of the Cold War, have had an opportunity to cooperate to deal with the two chief remaining sources of artificial or human-made death: civil war and vicious regimes. In addition, international law has evolved to allow them to do so, variously conferring legitimacy on most international policing measures even when they involve the use of mi…
No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States
Six Rather Unusual Propositions about Terrorism
The costs of terrorism very often come mostly from the fear and consequent reaction (or overreaction) it characteristically inspires (qualities stoked by the terrorism industry), not from its direct effects which are usually comparatively limited. Therefore, policies designed to deal with terrorism should focus more on reducing fear and anxiety as inexpensively as possible than on objectively reducing the rather limited dangers terrorism is likel…
The Iraq Syndrome
AMERICAN TROOPS have been sent into harm's way many times since 1945, but in only three cases-Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq-have they been drawn into sustained ground combat and suffered more than 300 deaths in action. American public opinion became a key factor in all three wars, and in each one there has been a simple association: as casualties mount, support decreases. Broad enthusiasm at the out set invariably erodes. The only thing remarkable abo…
The Banality of “Ethnic War
July 01 2000 The Banality of "Ethnic War" John Mueller John Mueller Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Author and Article Information John Mueller Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University. Online ISSN: 1531-4804 Pr…
The Iraq Syndrome
AMERICAN TROOPS have been sent into harm's way many times since 1945, but in only three cases-Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq-have they been drawn into sustained ground combat and suffered more than 300 deaths in action. American public opinion became a key factor in all three wars, and in each one there has been a simple association: as casualties mount, support decreases. Broad enthusiasm at the out set invariably erodes. The only thing remarkable abo…
Trends in Political Tolerance
Some researchers find a substantial increase in political tolerance since the 1950s, while others find the increase to be "illusory"—the public is more tolerant now of leftists, but has simply found other targets on which to vent its intolerance. Reanalysis and the addition of more extensive trend data from 1940 to 1985 suggest that the shift does seem primarily to reflect increased tolerance of leftists, but that the public has not found other g…
The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World
Democracy and Ralph's Pretty Good Grocery: Elections, Equality, and Minimal Human Being
This article makes three arguments in an effort to help explain the remarkable growth of democracy over the last two centuries. It argues, first, that democracy is really quite a simple idea, that it can come into existence quite naturally, and that even elections are not necessary for it to take effect. Second, it holds that democracy has been able to become established and accepted because, despite the assertions of many of its advocates, in pr…
The Terrorism Delusion: America's Overwrought Response to September 11
The reaction of Americans to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, has been massively disproportionate to the actual threat posed by al-Qaida either as an international menace or as an inspiration or model for homegrown amateurs. An examination of the activities of international and domestic terrorist “adversaries” reveals that exaggerations and distortions of the threat have inspired a determined and expensive quest to ferret out, and eve…
Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War
Policing the Remnants of War
Certain standard, indeed classic, varieties of war have become so rare and unlikely that they could well be considered to be obsolescent, if not obsolete. Moreover, much, but not all, of what remains of war is substantially opportunistic predation waged by packs of criminals, bandits, and thugs who engage in warfare in much the same way as they often did in medieval and early modern Europe: as mercenaries recruited or dragooned by weak (or even d…
Sanctions of Mass Destruction
With the demise of the Cold War, virtually all the major problems that afflicted great power relations over the last half-century have been resolved. Many argue, however, that new dangers such as those posed by rogue and terrorism have emerged to re place the old ones of conventional or nuclear war. As part of this shift in how threats are constructed and perceived, old worries about nuclear have been subsumed under the new con cept of weapons of…
War Has Almost Ceased to Exist: An Assessment
Journal Article War Has Almost Ceased to Exist: An Assessment Get access John Mueller John Mueller JOHN MUELLER is a professor of political science at Ohio State University. His most recent books are The Remnants of War, Overblown, and the forthcoming Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 124, Issue 2, Summer 2009,…
Misdiagnosis [with Reply]
Changing Attitudes Towards War: The Impact of the First World War
After the First World War the belief became substantially widespread among developed countries that the venerable institution of war should be abandoned from their affairs. It was an idea whose time had come. Historically, the war does not seem to have been all that unusual in its duration, destructiveness, grimness, political pointlessness, economic consequences or breadth. It does seem to have been unique in that (1) it was the first major war …
Quiet Cataclysm: Reflections on the Recent Transformation of World Politics
War, peace and the trouble in the aftermath of the quiet cataclysm realism and the Cold War arms races - postitive and negative expanding deterrence the essential irrelevance of nuclear weapons enough rope - overextension versus containment reassessing Pearl Harbour war - natural, but not necessary the historical movement of ideas - the rise of war aversion and the retreat from Doomsday the historical movement of ideas - the rise of democracy. Ap…
The Catastrophe Quota: Trouble after the Cold War
As the major problems that have bedeviled the world over the last half century have been resolved, the quest for things to worry about has continued unabated. The notion has taken hold that international affairs have somehow now become especially tumultuous, unstable, and complex. To arrive at such a conclusion, five techniques have been applied: the past has been simplified, a Eurocentric bias has been introduced, definitions have been changed, …
Is There Still a Terrorist Threat: The Myth of the Omnipresent Enemy
The perfect enemy: Assessing the gulf war
Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland
Some general parameters are proposed for evaluating homeland security measures that seek to make potential targets notably less vulnerable to terrorist attack, and these are then applied to specific policy considerations. Since the number of targets is essentially unlimited, since the probability that any given target will be attacked is near zero, since the number and competence of terrorists is limited, since target‐selection is effectively a n…
Six Rather Unusual Propositions about Terrorism
The costs of terrorism very often come mostly from the fear and consequent reaction (or overreaction) it characteristically inspires (qualities stoked by the terrorism industry), not from its direct effects which are usually comparatively limited. Therefore, policies designed to deal with terrorism should focus more on reducing fear and anxiety as inexpensively as possible than on objectively reducing the rather limited dangers terrorism is likel…
A Review: American Public Opinion and the Gulf War: Some Polling Issues
Journal Article AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION AND THE GULF WAR: SOME POLLING ISSUES Get access JOHN MUELLER JOHN MUELLER professor of political science The University of Rochester Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 57, Issue 1, Spring 1993, Pages 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1086/269356 Published: 01 January 1993
Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending
In this article, we present a simple back-of-the-envelope approach for evaluating whether counterterrorism security measures reduce risk sufficiently to justify their costs. The approach uses only four variables: the consequences of a successful attack, the likelihood of a successful attack, the degree to which the security measure reduces risk, and the cost of the security measure. After measuring the cost of a counterterrorism measure, we explo…
Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking: Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion
This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk-averse because of the catastrophic…
Capitalism, Peace, and the Historical Movement of Ideas
A logical and causal exploration of the growing acceptance of capitalism and peace, or war aversion, is part of what Robert Dahl has called “the historical movement of ideas.” Although war aversion and the acceptance of free-market capitalism have undergone parallel and substantially overlapping historical trajectories, support for capitalism does not on its own logically or necessarily imply war aversion or support for peace. Not only must capit…
Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War
Journal Article Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War. By John Mueller. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994. xviii, 379pp. Cloth, $55.00, ISBN 0-226-54564-4. Paper, $19.95, ISBN 0-22654565-2.) Get access Edward P. Morgan Edward P. Morgan Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Volume 82, Issue 2, September 1995, Pages 856–857, https://doi…
A New Concert of Europe
Policy Principles for Unthreatened Wealth-Seekers
New Film Catelog American Ballet Theatre: A Close-Up in Time
Categories for Exchange Analysis in Small Groups: With an Illustration from Group Psychotherapy
Longabaugh's category system for coding interpersonal behavior in mother-child dyads as social exchange is revised for use in small group analysis by using a more comprehensive set of content categories based on Parsonian functional (AGIL) theory. The notation for exchange analysis is illustrated with an extract from a group psychotherapy session
Is Giselle a virgin
In his book The Ballet Called Giselle, Cyril W. Beaumont expresses a degree of puzzlement over an important plot development, one which has also bothered other observers: Giselle's remarkably sudden descent into fatal on discovering she has been deceived by Albrecht. Quick temper and poor health might explain her frenzy and her tears, he observes, but what should cause madness to result from what at worst is no more than a bitter disappointment? …
Fred Astaire and the Integrated Musical
A considerable literature has grown in the quest for the ideally integrated musical-a musical where song, dance, and story are artfully blended to produce a combined effect. The two parts of this paper seek to add to this literature.l The first part sets out a series of distinctions, suggesting a method for distinguishing the plot relevance of various sorts of musical numbers. The second focuses on the role of dance in the development of the inte…
The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World
Trends in Political Tolerance
Some researchers find a substantial increase in political tolerance since the 1950s, while others find the increase to be "illusory"—the public is more tolerant now of leftists, but has simply found other targets on which to vent its intolerance. Reanalysis and the addition of more extensive trend data from 1940 to 1985 suggest that the shift does seem primarily to reflect increased tolerance of leftists, but that the public has not found other g…
A New Concert of Europe
Is War Obsolete: A Review Essay
Polls and Surveys: Understanding What They Tell Us
Pearl Harbor: Military Inconvenience, Political Disaster
Changing Attitudes Towards War: The Impact of the First World War
After the First World War the belief became substantially widespread among developed countries that the venerable institution of war should be abandoned from their affairs. It was an idea whose time had come. Historically, the war does not seem to have been all that unusual in its duration, destructiveness, grimness, political pointlessness, economic consequences or breadth. It does seem to have been unique in that (1) it was the first major war …
Quiet Cataclysm: Some Afterthoughts about World War III
Democracy and Ralph's Pretty Good Grocery: Elections, Equality, and Minimal Human Being
This article makes three arguments in an effort to help explain the remarkable growth of democracy over the last two centuries. It argues, first, that democracy is really quite a simple idea, that it can come into existence quite naturally, and that even elections are not necessary for it to take effect. Second, it holds that democracy has been able to become established and accepted because, despite the assertions of many of its advocates, in pr…
A Review: American Public Opinion and the Gulf War: Some Polling Issues
Journal Article AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION AND THE GULF WAR: SOME POLLING ISSUES Get access JOHN MUELLER JOHN MUELLER professor of political science The University of Rochester Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 57, Issue 1, Spring 1993, Pages 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1086/269356 Published: 01 January 1993
Policy and opinion in the Gulf War
William H. Riker
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button
The Catastrophe Quota: Trouble after the Cold War
As the major problems that have bedeviled the world over the last half century have been resolved, the quest for things to worry about has continued unabated. The notion has taken hold that international affairs have somehow now become especially tumultuous, unstable, and complex. To arrive at such a conclusion, five techniques have been applied: the past has been simplified, a Eurocentric bias has been introduced, definitions have been changed, …
Minorities and the Democratic Image
Realism and the End of the Cold War
Quiet Cataclysm: Reflections on the Recent Transformation of World Politics
War, peace and the trouble in the aftermath of the quiet cataclysm realism and the Cold War arms races - postitive and negative expanding deterrence the essential irrelevance of nuclear weapons enough rope - overextension versus containment reassessing Pearl Harbour war - natural, but not necessary the historical movement of ideas - the rise of war aversion and the retreat from Doomsday the historical movement of ideas - the rise of democracy. Ap…
Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War
Journal Article Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War. By John Mueller. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994. xviii, 379pp. Cloth, $55.00, ISBN 0-226-54564-4. Paper, $19.95, ISBN 0-22654565-2.) Get access Edward P. Morgan Edward P. Morgan Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Volume 82, Issue 2, September 1995, Pages 856–857, https://doi…
The perfect enemy: Assessing the gulf war
Scénario catastrophe: Désordre après la guerre froide. Partie 1
Scnario catastrophe : dsordre aprs la guerre froide. Partie 1
Scénario catastrophe: Désordre après la guerre froide. Partie 2
1 Dans le sillage de la guerre froide, pour susciter et justifier l'inquitude, les "identificateurs de troubles" ont ingnieusement chang le sens de certains mots-cl. L'un d'eux est "stabilit". Durant la Guerre Froide, l'instabilit tait clairement associe au risque de guerre nuclaire entre les Etats Unis et l'Union Sovitique. Il n'est peuttre pas inutile de rappeler ce propos qu'il y a encore quelques annes, bien des gens taient profondment inquie…
Policy Principles for Unthreatened Wealth-Seekers
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