Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4029183 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Joanne Mueller (0000-0002-7119-9227, Cato Institute), John Mueller (0000-0002-8569-8414, Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center for International Security Studies and Adjunct Professor of Political Science, both at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. Senior Fellow, Cato Institute, Washington, DC.), Mark G Stewart (0000-0001-6887-6533, Australian Research Council Professorial Fellow and Professor and Director, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, both at the University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia.) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 237-248 |
| Publication date | 2014-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965 |
| Publisher | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/jep.28.3.237 |
| OpenAlex | W2092211011 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 15 |
| References cited | 9 |
In this article, we present a simple back-of-the-envelope approach for evaluating whether counterterrorism security measures reduce risk sufficiently to justify their costs. The approach uses only four variables: the consequences of a successful attack, the likelihood of a successful attack, the degree to which the security measure reduces risk, and the cost of the security measure. After measuring the cost of a counterterrorism measure, we explore a range of outcomes for the costs of terrorist attacks and a range of possible estimates for how much risk might be reduced by the measure. Then working from this mix of information and assumptions, we can calculate how many terrorist attacks (and of what size) would need to be averted to justify the cost of the counterterrorism measure in narrow cost-benefit terms. To illustrate this approach, we first apply it to the overall increases in domestic counterterrorism expenditures that have taken place since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and alternatively we apply it to just the FBI's counterterrorism efforts. We then evaluate evidence on the number and size of terrorist attacks that have actually been averted or might have been averted since 9/11
Actuarial science · Business · Computer security · Economics · Estimation · Political science · Terrorism · Computer Science · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking
Unveiling drivers of successful terrorist incidents in the U.S
Critical terrorism studies and numbers
Critical terrorism studies and the far-right
Public opinion as a driver of the national security state
Rally post-terrorism
Interpol's Surveillance Network in Curbing Transnational Terrorism
British Voting Intentions and the far Reach of 9/11
More Is Not Always Better
Role of information and communication technologies on the war against terrorism and on the development of tourism
Gone with the wind
The Impact of Terrorism on Individual Well-Being
Paying Them to Hate US
Evaluating U.S. Counterterrorism Policy
Contemporary Policy Challenges in Protecting the Homeland
| Unique citing works | 15 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,15 |
| Citation span | 2013 - 2025 (13) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |