Tom Wilson
Biographic Data
| ID | 3720658 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Tom Wilson |
| GIVEN NAMES | Tom |
| FAMILY NAME | Wilson |
| SIGNATURE | WILSON T |
| AFFILIATIONS | The University of Melbourne |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8812-7556 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 76 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 135 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 76 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1890 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
A review and evaluation of internal migration forecasting models
Recognizing that internal migration is an important source of error in population projections, we evaluate 21 forecasts from five classes of methods: (1) average of the most recent flows; (2) time-series econometric models with and without external factors; (3) machine-learning-based gradient boosting models; (4) multiplicative component and gravity-type models; and (5) average of all forecasts. We forecast bilateral interstate migration flows in…
Internal migration responses to housing dynamics before and after Covid-19 in Australia
Contrasting demographic trajectories in Northern New South Wales populations
In the contemporary academic literature, rural population decline has generally been regarded as a long‐running and almost natural phenomenon. This paper examines the complex temporal, spatial, and cultural dynamics of the population of an inland, largely agriculturally dependent rural region, the New South Wales New England and North West region (SA4 level) from the late 1990s to the 2021 Census. It investigates the key demographic processes tha…
New Household Projections for Australia: Geographical Variations, Decomposition of Growth, and Implications for Policy
In common with many other advanced economies, Australia is experiencing a crisis of worsening housing affordability. While some of the causes are longstanding, the crisis comes at a time of very high population growth driven by record high net immigration. This paper considers what the underlying demographic demand for housing, as expressed by the number of households, is likely to be over the next few years and then further ahead out to 2041. Pa…
Estimating and projecting the population living with dementia at the local area scale in Australia
As Australia’s population ages, the number of people living with dementia will grow considerably. Understanding local changes in the number of people living with dementia will facilitate suitable planning, costing, and service delivery for health and aged care services. To inform this task, this study presents estimates and projections from 2021 to 2036 of Australians living with dementia at the state and territory level, and at the finer regiona…
A proof-of-concept model of Australia’s overseas migration system: Projecting temporary and permanent populations, visa switching, and visa-specific migration flows
Changing Religious Affiliation Among Older Australians: Estimates and Projections to Mid-century
The purpose of this study was to investigate shifting religious affiliation of the older Australian population to mid-century. Projections were produced with a cohort-component model classified by both country/region of birth and religious affiliation and divided by sex and five-year age groups. By mid-century, we project a rapid increase in the percentage of people reporting ‘No religion’ (+ 82%, + 8.65 million), alongside a decrease in Christia…
Ageing of the Australian LGBQ population: Estimates and Projections to Mid-Century
Although evidence on aspects of individual ageing of LGBTQI (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer and/or intersex) people is mounting, there is a poor understanding of the macro aspects of population ageing within the LGBTQI population itself. This paper seeks to address this lacuna through an examination of structural and numerical ageing of the Australian LGBQ population. Drawing upon new data sources, alongside recent advances in demogra…
A Practitioner-Oriented Evaluation of Mortality Forecasting Methods: The Case of Australia
Practitioners seeking a suitable mortality model for forecasting population by age and sex are presented with many possible choices from the large and growing academic literature on mortality forecasting. Despite this abundance, there is relatively little practical guidance on selecting the most appropriate models for their needs. This study evaluates the accuracy of mortality forecasting methods and provides guidance on model selection. The eval…
Development and evaluation of probabilistic forecasting methods for small area populations
Planning and development decisions in both the government and business sectors often require small area population forecasts. Unfortunately, current methods often produce forecasts that are inaccurate, particularly for remote areas and those with smaller populations. Such inaccuracy necessitates the development and evaluation of methods to forecast and communicate forecast uncertainty, however, little research has been conducted in this domain fo…
Retaining Permanent and Temporary Immigrants in Rural Australia: Place‐Based and Individual Determinants
In many low‐fertility countries, immigration is increasingly seen a solution to the twin problem of rural depopulation and skill shortages. In Australia, this takes the form of regional visa schemes that require both skilled and humanitarian migrants to reside initially in nonmetropolitan regions for a minimum of 2 years. In the absence of nationally representative longitudinal data, the efficacy of this policy is yet to be assessed. Applying sur…
Can reliable sub-state emigration estimates be obtained from an administrative population dataset? The case of the Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA) of Australia
Application of P-Topals for Smoothing Input Data for Population Projections ‘At the Edge’
Sparsely populated areas of developed countries are regions of great demographic diversity and dynamism. While they remain strategically and economically important, trends in urbanization and technology have increased their relative sparsity and isolation making centralized government, service delivery and planning a challenge. Populations of their sub-jurisdictions are small and often exhibit significant heterogeneity in key demographic characte…
The pitfalls and benefits of using administrative data for internal migration research: An evaluation of Australia's Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA)
BACKGROUNDTo enhance its data capability, Australia recently set up a longitudinal administrative micro-dataset, the Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA). OBJECTIVETo ensure that users in both scholarly and applied settings understand how PLIDA can be reliably used, we assess its Combined Location Module, which provides place of residence by combining three administrative datasets since 2006. METHODSUsing descriptive statistics and regressi…
No Longer Indigenous
Investigating individual level-Indigenous identification change by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians has been enabled through the linkage of census data across time. This study focusses on the population who moved from an identification of Indigenous in the 2011 census to not Indigenous in the 2016 census. We calculated transition probabilities for a range of personal characteristics to investigate the influence of broad life-cour…
Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model: A Case Study of England
The preparation of forecasts for small and local area populations involves many challenges. Standard cohort-component models are problematic because of small numbers, which make estimation of rates unreliable. Because of this, the Synthetic Migration Population Projection (SYMPOPP) model was designed to forecast local populations without need for detailed area-specific information. This model had been used successfully for small area forecasts in…
The Impact of Demographic and Economic Change on the Australian Generational Economy: Financial Sustainability, Intergenerational Inequality, and Material Living Standards
The generational economy—which is that aspect of the economy that pertains to the economic activities of, and the economic relationships between, different ages and generations—can be evaluated on the basis of a number of different criteria. The most critical of these include the financial sustainability of the generational economy, the intergenerational inequality that the generational economy creates, and the material living standards associate…
Can machine learning improve small area population forecasts? A forecast combination approach
Demography and Covid-19: Risks, responses and impacts
Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs
La démographie des mariages de même sexe en Australie: Résultats De La Première Année Après Leur Légalisation
Fin 2017, l'Australie a été le 27 e pays à légaliser le mariage de couples de même sexe, mais on sait peu de choses sur les caractéristiques des conjoints. Pour établir le profil démographique de ces couples, un jeu de données sans équivalent concernant tous les mariages australiens en 2018 a été constitué à partir des informations figurant dans les registres des États et des Territoires. Les estimations de la population représentée par ces minor…
Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data
Cohort-component models incorporating directional migration are conceptually robust demographic models which are widely employed to forecast the populations of large subnational regions. However, they are difficult to apply at the local area scale. Simpler
The Changing Migrant Composition of Australia’s Population: Past, Present and Future
How will Covid-19 impact Australia's future population? A scenario approach
English Language Proficiency Among Older Migrants in Australia, 2016–2046
Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections
Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts
Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs
Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks
This paper proposes an extension of the standard parameterized model migration schedule to account for highly age-concentrated student migration. Many age profiles of regional migration are characterized by sudden 'spiked' increases in migration intensities in the late teenage years, which are related to leaving school, and, in particular, to entry into higher education. The standard model schedule does not appear to be effective in describing th…
The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia
Concern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This pa…
A Multistate Model for Projecting Regional Populations by Indigenous Status: An Application to the Northern Territory, Australia
The author presents a multistate model for projecting regional populations by Indigenous status. Previous methods employed to project the Australian Indigenous population did not model interaction between the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, in large part because of serious data deficiencies. Improvements in data coverage and quality, particularly in the Northern Territory, now permit the effective use of conceptually preferable multist…
Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty
Subnational population forecasts form a key input to many significant investment and planning decisions, but these forecasts are often subject to considerable amounts of uncertainty, even in the short run. This uncertainty is rarely quantified at the subna
Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts
The Sources and Diversity of Immigrant Population Change in Australia, 1981–2011
Australia has one of the largest percentages of immigrant populations in the developed world with a highly regulated system of immigration control and regular censuses to track their changes over time. However, the ability to explain the population change through the demographic components of immigration, emigration, and death by age and sex is complicated because of differences in measurement and sources of information. In this article, we explo…
Australia's Population Future: Probabilistic Forecasts Incorporating Expert Judgement
Projections of future population are essential for planning in both the public and private sectors but conventional approaches provide little guidance as to the uncertainties associated with published projections. Moreover, history suggests that forecasters are generally slow in responding to new trends in key demographic processes. These limitations come into sharp relief at times of high public interest, such as occasioned by the unprecedented …
The geography of Australia's Marriage Law Postal Survey outcome
After years of public debate about same‐sex marriage, the Australian Government put the issue to the electorate in the “Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey” in late 2017. The survey asked voters whether the law should be changed to allow same‐sex couples to marry. Nationally, 61.6% of voters responded “Yes.” But there were marked variations by electoral division, with the proportion of “Yes” votes varying from 26.1% to 83.7%. The aim of this pa…
New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts
At the small area scale simple methods for forecasting total populations are often employed because of a lack of data for cohort‐component models, concerns about the reliability of these models for forecasting small population totals, and resource constraints. To date, a select number of authors have assessed the forecast accuracy of several individual, averaged, and composite models. This paper extends this stream of work by evaluating a large n…
Indigenous Australian population projections: Problems and prospects
The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections
Will the Covid-19 pandemic affect population ageing in Australia
Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia
Attitudes to sexual minorities have undergone a transformation in many Western countries in recent decades. With much greater public acceptance, and an increase in policies and legislation to support equality and outlaw discrimination, the need for populat
ScreenAble: Breast Cancer Screening among Women with Disabilities from Community Identified Challenges to Community-Based Programs
Long-term sustained partnerships between academic, disability, and clinical partners are needed to address the complex issues that perpetuate breast cancer screening disparities among women with disabilities
The sequential propensity household projection model
The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the â propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsisten
Retaining Permanent and Temporary Immigrants in Rural Australia: Place‐Based and Individual Determinants
In many low‐fertility countries, immigration is increasingly seen a solution to the twin problem of rural depopulation and skill shortages. In Australia, this takes the form of regional visa schemes that require both skilled and humanitarian migrants to reside initially in nonmetropolitan regions for a minimum of 2 years. In the absence of nationally representative longitudinal data, the efficacy of this policy is yet to be assessed. Applying sur…
The pitfalls and benefits of using administrative data for internal migration research: An evaluation of Australia's Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA)
BACKGROUNDTo enhance its data capability, Australia recently set up a longitudinal administrative micro-dataset, the Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA). OBJECTIVETo ensure that users in both scholarly and applied settings understand how PLIDA can be reliably used, we assess its Combined Location Module, which provides place of residence by combining three administrative datasets since 2006. METHODSUsing descriptive statistics and regressi…
La démographie des mariages de même sexe en Australie: Résultats De La Première Année Après Leur Légalisation
Fin 2017, l'Australie a été le 27 e pays à légaliser le mariage de couples de même sexe, mais on sait peu de choses sur les caractéristiques des conjoints. Pour établir le profil démographique de ces couples, un jeu de données sans équivalent concernant tous les mariages australiens en 2018 a été constitué à partir des informations figurant dans les registres des États et des Territoires. Les estimations de la population représentée par ces minor…
The future of Australia's Indigenous Population, 2011-61
Existing projections of Australia's Indigenous Population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting that population that better represents the demographic processes at work, and that makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented that expl…
Australia's uncertain demographic future
The techniques of probabilistic population forecasting are increasingly being recognised as a profitable means of overcoming many of the limitations of conventional deterministic variant population forecasts. This paper applies these techniques to pres
No Longer Indigenous
Investigating individual level-Indigenous identification change by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians has been enabled through the linkage of census data across time. This study focusses on the population who moved from an identification of Indigenous in the 2011 census to not Indigenous in the 2016 census. We calculated transition probabilities for a range of personal characteristics to investigate the influence of broad life-cour…
Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model: A Case Study of England
The preparation of forecasts for small and local area populations involves many challenges. Standard cohort-component models are problematic because of small numbers, which make estimation of rates unreliable. Because of this, the Synthetic Migration Population Projection (SYMPOPP) model was designed to forecast local populations without need for detailed area-specific information. This model had been used successfully for small area forecasts in…
The Smithsonian Institution and Its Anthropologic Work
was an Englishman, the illegitimate son of one of the noble and powerful families of Englaud.He never visited America.His father seems to have made for him a provision which enabled him, with his retired and simple habits, to accuImulate the fortu-ne which he bequeathed to the United States.He was educated at Oxford, taking an honorary degree in 1786, and using his mother's name until a few years after he had left the University, when he took the…
The Swastika. The Earliest-known Symbol and its Migrations. With Observations on the Migration of Certain Industries in Prehistoric Times
Worldwar2 #wwii #nationalsocialism #thirdreich #nsdap #jwo #nwo #communismkills #whitegenocide #music #EuropeanPride #Wehrmacht #WorldWar1 #wwi #TreatyofVersailles #jewworldorder #betterdeadthanred #newworldorder #greatestally
Ulster and Eire
Keynesian Economics
The Means to Full Employment
Journal Article The Means to Full Employment Get access The Means to Full Employment. By G. D. H. Cole. (London : Gollancz, 1943. Pp. 175. 6s.) Tom Wilson Tom Wilson London Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 54, Issue 214, 1 June 1944, Pages 224–226, https://doi.org/10.2307/2225914 Published: 01 June 1944
Modern Capitalism and Economic Progress
Ulster and Eire
Approaches to Information Management in County Planning Authorities in England and Wales
The paper describes the findings of a survey of information management in the 54 country planning authorities of England and Wales. They indicate the extent to which current county planning practice is directed towards economic regeneration and the degree to which monitoring activities are still regarded as evolving despite the long time interval that has elapsed in many cases since the initial submission of the County structure plans. They show …
The Anglo-Irish Problem: A Matter of Which Question
Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman and David A. Swanson, State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis
Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections
Australia's uncertain demographic future
The techniques of probabilistic population forecasting are increasingly being recognised as a profitable means of overcoming many of the limitations of conventional deterministic variant population forecasts. This paper applies these techniques to pres
Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review
In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for ‘what if?’ analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments…
The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections
A Multistate Model for Projecting Regional Populations by Indigenous Status: An Application to the Northern Territory, Australia
The author presents a multistate model for projecting regional populations by Indigenous status. Previous methods employed to project the Australian Indigenous population did not model interaction between the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, in large part because of serious data deficiencies. Improvements in data coverage and quality, particularly in the Northern Territory, now permit the effective use of conceptually preferable multist…
Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks
This paper proposes an extension of the standard parameterized model migration schedule to account for highly age-concentrated student migration. Many age profiles of regional migration are characterized by sudden 'spiked' increases in migration intensities in the late teenage years, which are related to leaving school, and, in particular, to entry into higher education. The standard model schedule does not appear to be effective in describing th…
Australia's Population Future: Probabilistic Forecasts Incorporating Expert Judgement
Projections of future population are essential for planning in both the public and private sectors but conventional approaches provide little guidance as to the uncertainties associated with published projections. Moreover, history suggests that forecasters are generally slow in responding to new trends in key demographic processes. These limitations come into sharp relief at times of high public interest, such as occasioned by the unprecedented …
Ramadan in Liverpool
This article addresses the way in which Muslim children negotiate the Christianity they encounter in an Anglican Primary School in Liverpool. The title picks up the two focal points of the discussion: the writing of Tariq Ramadan and the impact of fasting during the month of Ramadan on the life of the school. With regard to Tariq Ramadan's writing, the article first evaluates his opposition to ‘tolerance’ and ‘integration’. Second, it sets out Ra…
Indigenous Australian population projections: Problems and prospects
The sequential propensity household projection model
The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the â propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsisten
Understanding the Growth of Australia’s Very Elderly Population, 1976 to 2012
New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts
At the small area scale simple methods for forecasting total populations are often employed because of a lack of data for cohort‐component models, concerns about the reliability of these models for forecasting small population totals, and resource constraints. To date, a select number of authors have assessed the forecast accuracy of several individual, averaged, and composite models. This paper extends this stream of work by evaluating a large n…
Estimating Historical Total Fertility Rates for Australia and Its States
Australian Bureau of Statistics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics are available from 1921 for Australia, and for census years between 1947 and 1966 for the states, and then on an annual basis from 1971. Using historical, statistical publications, annual TFRs for Australia and the states dating back to federation in 1901 were calculated directly in years where data are available and estimated indirectly via the standardized fertility ratio in …
It’s a bit cool and awesome”: Using Liverpool’s Muslim Heritage to Help Muslim Pupils Learn how to “Translate” their Faith in the Liverpool of Today
Contrary to the stereotype of conflict between Christians and Muslims, St Aidan’s Church of England Primary School in inner-city Liverpool is a place where as one pupil said, “We are all united together,” arguably a remarkable achievement for an Anglican school with approximately two-thirds Muslim pupils. This article is based on my ethnographic fieldwork with Muslim pupils in St Aidan’s and examines the role of education and the Muslim heritage …
Spatially consistent local area population estimates for Australia, 1986–2011
Sociology (52 works) · Population (49 works) · Geography (44 works) · Demography (43 works) · Economics (34 works) · demographic modeling and climate adaptation (28 works) · Demography (27 works) · Computer Science (26 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (24 works) · Political science (20 works)