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Subnational population forecasts

Do users want to know about uncertainty

Bibliographic Data

ID2637409
AuthorsTom Wilson (0000-0001-8812-7556, The University of Melbourne, corresponding author), Fiona Shalley (0000-0001-5101-9949, Charles Darwin University)
Year2019
Volume41
Pages367-392
Publication date2019-07-26
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueDemographic Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1435-9871 • E-ISSN: 2363-7064
PublisherMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research (PUBLISHER • DE)
DOI10.4054/demres.2019.41.13
OpenAlexW2964543098
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited25

Subnational population forecasts form a key input to many significant investment and planning decisions, but these forecasts are often subject to considerable amounts of uncertainty, even in the short run. This uncertainty is rarely quantified at the subna

Actuarial science · Business · Econometrics · Economics · Investment Decisions · Political science · Population · Sociology · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Finance

  • Application of P-Topals for Smoothing Input Data for Population Projections ‘At the Edge’

    Open Access•Sigurd Dyrting, Andrew Taylor et al.•Population Research and Policy…•2024

  • Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model

    Open Access•Philip Rees, Tom Wilson•Population Research and Policy…•2023

  • A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas

    Open Access•David A Swanson, Jeff Tayman et al.•Population Research and Policy…•2025

  • Navigating Demographic Uncertainty

    Open Access•Jan Amcoff, Thomas Niedomysl et al.•Population Research and Policy…•2025

  • Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts

    Open Access•Tom Wilson, Irina Grossman et al.•Population Research and Policy…•2022

  • Forecasting Population in an Uncertain World

    Open Access•Ronald D Lee•Population and Development Review•2025

  • Population Forecast Errors

    Open Access•Stefan Rayer•Journal of Planning Education and…•2008

  • Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts

    Open Access•Stefan Rayer, Stanley K Smith•Journal of Planning Education and…•2010

  • Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries

    Open Access•Maarten Alders, Nico Keilman et al.•European Journal of Population /…•2007

  • Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts

    Open Access•Jeff Tayman•Population Research and Policy…•2011

  • Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

    Open Access•Stefan Rayer, Stanley K Smith et al.•Population Research and Policy…•2009

  • Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

    Open Access•Tom Wilson, Huw Brokensha et al.•Population Research and Policy…•2018

  • Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties

    Open Access•Stefan Rayer, Stanley K Smith•Population Research and Policy…•2014

  • Australia's Population Future

    Open Access•Martin Bell, Tom Wilson et al.•Geographical Research•2011

  • Completing the Demographic Transition

    Open Access•John Bongaarts, Rodolfo A Bulatao•Population and Development Review•1999

  • The Limits of Population Forecasting

    Nathan Keyfitz•Population and Development Review•1981

  • Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections

    Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C Sanderson et al.•Population and Development Review•1998

  • Uncertainty in population projections

    Open Access•Raquel Rangel De Meireles Guimarães•Revista Brasileira de Estudos de…•2014

  • Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway

    Open Access•Nico Keilman, Dinh Quang Pham et al.•Demographic Research•2002

Unique citing works6
Citations per year1,5
Citation span2022 - 2025 (4)
Citation velocityrecent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 6

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