Brad Lockerbie
Biographic Data
| ID | 4122632 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Brad Lockerbie |
| GIVEN NAMES | Brad |
| FAMILY NAME | Lockerbie |
| SIGNATURE | LOCKERBIE B |
| AFFILIATIONS | East Carolina University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4761-7019 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 32 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 286 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 32 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1987 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
The Challenge of Forecasting the 2024 Presidential and House Elections: Economic Pessimism and Election Outcomes
Using a forecasting model based on economic pessimism and recognizing the difficulties of making such a forecast in such atypical times, the forecasting model predicts a narrow loss for the incumbent presidential party and a loss of 12 seats in the House of Representatives. Even with the unusual nature of politics in the United States over the past decade, this model does a good job of predicting election outcomes. The more pessimistic people are…
Economic Pessimism and the 2022 Election: A Postmortem
Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment in 2020
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Maybe it Is More Than a Joke: Satire, Mobilization, and Political Participation
Objective The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between viewing late night political humor and political participation. Methods We used various measures of viewership of late night talk shows and political participation in the 2012 American National Election Studies (ANES) data set. Results We show that viewership of “Late Night with David Letterman,” a simple form of political comedy, seems to be unrelated to political part…
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes
At its most basic level, this forecast of the 2012 presidential election performed successfully. The model forecasted the reelection of President Obama. With 53.8% of the two-party vote; he ended up with 51.8% (as of November 28, 2012), yielding an error of 2.0 percentage points. Prior to 2012 the average out-of-sample forecasting error was 3.34 points. Here, the model does better than the average of the previous years by almost a point. Running …
Race and Religion: Voting Behavior and Political Attitudes
Objectives The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between religion and voting behavior and political attitudes. Moreover, this work examines the distinction between black and white evangelicals. Methods This article makes use of regression and logit analysis of the American National Election Studies of 1992 through 2008. Results Identification with a particular tradition is important, along with attitudes concerning the author…
Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes: The Presidency and the House in 2012
Do our models of political behavior bear any resemblance to reality? Forecasting elections is one opportunity to assess whether our models of voting behavior are accurate. Over the past few decades, political scientists have been willing to put themselves out there to forecast elections. Explaining a past event allows us the ability to retrofit our models before we make them available to the broader community. In short, forecasting elections prov…
A Retrospective on the Prospective Model: Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. At its most basic level, the Economic Expectations and Time-for-a-Change Model performed well in that it successfully forecast a Barack Obama victory. It was in estimating the two-party vote that the model underperformed. The point estimate was …
Framing Effects on Public Opinion During Prewar and Major Combat Phases of the U.S. Wars with Iraq
Objectives. Our purpose was to develop and test several hypotheses concerning the impact of poll‐question wording on aggregate public support for war. We drew on general insights from framing theory and specific insights from various theories of public support for war. Methods. Our database consisted of two collections of aggregate poll results drawn from the prewar and major combat phases of the Gulf War (1990–1991) and the Second War with Iraq …
Election Forecasting: The Future of the Presidency and the House
This article is about a simple two-variable equation forecasting presidential election outcomes and a three-variable equation forecasting seat change in House elections. Over the past two decades a cottage industry of political forecasting has developed (Lewis-Beck and Rice 1992; Campbell and Garand 2000). At the 1994 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, several participants offered their forecasts of the upcoming midterm House …
After the Vote: Evaluating a Prospective Forecasting Model of Presidential Elections
There are two components to my model of presidential election forecasting: Given the enormous amount of work on voting behavior that finds prospective assessments of the economy to be strongly related to vote choice (e.g., Abramowitz 1985; Kuklinski and West 1981; Lewis-Beck 1988; Lockerbie 1992), I make use of a prospective economic item from the Survey of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior that asks if the next year will be better, worse, or the s…
A Look to the Future: Forecasting the 2004 Presidential Election
Forecasting provides the opportunity to put one's self to the test. Are our models of voting behavior accurate? It is easy to retrofit an explanation for what has happened in the past. Taking a chance on a forecast that can go wrong does not afford us that luxury. Forecasting can also teach a lesson in humility. Over the last decade, political scientists have been willing to gamble on their models. We have had some success. Everyone on the foreca…
Party Identification: Constancy and Change
Party identification has long been thought to be the unmoved mover of political evaluations. The research presented here shows that party identification is changeable. In fact, over a 2-year period (1990-1992), we can see that there is a substantively important amount of movement. MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson argue that expectations, not retrospections, lie at the core of political economy. This work takes that logic and shows that the individua…
Forecast 2000: An Afterthought
The Partisan Component to the Incumbency Advantage: 1956-1996
The Partisan Component to the Incumbency Advantage: 1956-1996
The power of incumbency in congressional elections is widely accepted. Is there a partisan component to the incumbency advantage? The theories of divided government push in two directions. Jacobson's argument would lead one to believe that the Democrats should be advantaged. Fiorina's argument would lead one to believe that there should be no difference between the parties. Using the American National Election Studies of 1956 through 1996, one ca…
An Integrative Approach to Modeling Presidential Success in Congress
We propose and test an integrative multivariate model predicting aggregate annual presidential success on House and Senate roll calls from 1953 to 1994. We incorporate presidency-centered, Congress-centered, agenda, and timing variables in our analysis. Our results show that there are important similarities and dissimilarities across legislative chambers. For both chambers, the percentage of co-partisans of the president and when they came into o…
The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War
The conventional wisdom of national elections suggests that there are electoral costs associated with opposing declarations of war. However, an alternative literature contends that the negative electoral consequences of waging war may be borne by legislators who supported war, especially those members of the majority party. The authors test this assumption by examining the electoral consequences of supporting or opposing the declarations of war f…
The Sophomore Surge: Conversion, Mobilization, or Abstention
The Sophomore Surge: Conversion, Mobilization, or Abstention
The incumbency advantage and its cause(s) is a question that political scientists have addressed for several years. This article looks at one piece of the puzzle: the sophomore surge. Using the American National Election Panel Studies of 1956-1960 and 1972-1976, I examine three possible scenarios for the sophomore surge: conversion, mobilization, and absten tion. The evidence presented herein supports the argument that first-term incumbents are a…
Party Contacting and Political Participation, 1952-90
Although the role of political parties in structuring vote choice has become considerably weaker in the last 30 years, we find that parties continue to be active organizations and contact one-fifth to one-quarter of the electorate, an activity that has important consequences. Specifically, when contacted by the parties, individuals have a greater propensity to vote and to engage in other political activities. We also find that each of the two maj…
Economic dissatisfaction and political alienation in Western Europe
Using Euro‐Barometers 20 and 21, this research examines the role of economic discontent in promoting disenchantment with democracy in Great Britain, France, West Germany, and Italy. Both cognitive and affective economic evaluations have a strong effect on one's level of political alienation. Those who believe the government will have a negative effect on the economy in the future and those who are angry over their government's management of the e…
Making Choices about Choice: House Support for Abortion Funding
Party Contacting and Political Participation, 1952-90
Although the role of political parties in structuring vote choice has become considerably weaker in the last 30 years, we find that parties continue to be active organizations and contact one-fifth to one-quarter of the electorate, an activity that has important consequences. Specifically, when contacted by the parties, individuals have a greater propensity to vote and to engage in other political activities. We also find that each of the two maj…
Economics, Votes, Protests: Western European Cases
In Western European studies, general investigations of mass political participation are an established tradition. However, these efforts have not drawn from the vigorous current of research on economics and politics. Specifically for Western Europe, there exists no systematic work on economic conditions and political participation (conventional or unconventional). Here we integrate these economic arguments into general explanations of both partic…
Economic dissatisfaction and political alienation in Western Europe
Using Euro‐Barometers 20 and 21, this research examines the role of economic discontent in promoting disenchantment with democracy in Great Britain, France, West Germany, and Italy. Both cognitive and affective economic evaluations have a strong effect on one's level of political alienation. Those who believe the government will have a negative effect on the economy in the future and those who are angry over their government's management of the e…
An Integrative Approach to Modeling Presidential Success in Congress
We propose and test an integrative multivariate model predicting aggregate annual presidential success on House and Senate roll calls from 1953 to 1994. We incorporate presidency-centered, Congress-centered, agenda, and timing variables in our analysis. Our results show that there are important similarities and dissimilarities across legislative chambers. For both chambers, the percentage of co-partisans of the president and when they came into o…
Prospective Economic Voting in U. S. House Elections, 1956-88
Why the Democrat-Republican Partisanship Gap Varies From Poll to Poll
Polls taken in late 1980 and 1984 varied by up to 20 points in the spread they reported between Democratic and Republican identifiers. We found three systematic and sizable differences across polls: polls that sample only voters, polls that emphasize “today” or the present in their question wording, and polls that are taken close to election day (at least in circumstances like those of 1984) tend to favor the party currently advantaged in the pre…
Race and Religion: Voting Behavior and Political Attitudes
Objectives The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between religion and voting behavior and political attitudes. Moreover, this work examines the distinction between black and white evangelicals. Methods This article makes use of regression and logit analysis of the American National Election Studies of 1992 through 2008. Results Identification with a particular tradition is important, along with attitudes concerning the author…
Question Wording and Public Support for Contra Aid, 1983-1986
How does question wording affect the results of polls? How can we distinguish question wording effects from genuine change? In this analysis, we make use of a series of polls concerning President Reagan's policy toward Nicaragua. We identify five variations in wording in the survey items that have been used on this topic, and we find evidence that these are responsible for variations in support for the Contras. If the ideological nature of the Sa…
The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War
The conventional wisdom of national elections suggests that there are electoral costs associated with opposing declarations of war. However, an alternative literature contends that the negative electoral consequences of waging war may be borne by legislators who supported war, especially those members of the majority party. The authors test this assumption by examining the electoral consequences of supporting or opposing the declarations of war f…
The Sophomore Surge: Conversion, Mobilization, or Abstention
The incumbency advantage and its cause(s) is a question that political scientists have addressed for several years. This article looks at one piece of the puzzle: the sophomore surge. Using the American National Election Panel Studies of 1956-1960 and 1972-1976, I examine three possible scenarios for the sophomore surge: conversion, mobilization, and absten tion. The evidence presented herein supports the argument that first-term incumbents are a…
The influence of levels of information on the use of prospective evaluations
Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes: The Presidency and the House in 2012
Do our models of political behavior bear any resemblance to reality? Forecasting elections is one opportunity to assess whether our models of voting behavior are accurate. Over the past few decades, political scientists have been willing to put themselves out there to forecast elections. Explaining a past event allows us the ability to retrofit our models before we make them available to the broader community. In short, forecasting elections prov…
Framing Effects on Public Opinion During Prewar and Major Combat Phases of the U.S. Wars with Iraq
Objectives. Our purpose was to develop and test several hypotheses concerning the impact of poll‐question wording on aggregate public support for war. We drew on general insights from framing theory and specific insights from various theories of public support for war. Methods. Our database consisted of two collections of aggregate poll results drawn from the prewar and major combat phases of the Gulf War (1990–1991) and the Second War with Iraq …
The temporal pattern of economic evaluations and vote choice in Senate elections
Getting Inside the Beltway: Perceptions of Presidential Skill and Success in Congress
Different methodological approaches sometimes lead to different substantive conclusions. Nowhere is this more evident than in studies relating assessments of presidential skill to legislative success. Scholars of the historical, traditionalist school of presidency research argue that presidents who are perceived to be adept at getting what they want are more likely to achieve their legislative goals than are those perceived as less adept. Neustad…
Maybe it Is More Than a Joke: Satire, Mobilization, and Political Participation
Objective The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between viewing late night political humor and political participation. Methods We used various measures of viewership of late night talk shows and political participation in the 2012 American National Election Studies (ANES) data set. Results We show that viewership of “Late Night with David Letterman,” a simple form of political comedy, seems to be unrelated to political part…
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Election Forecasting: The Future of the Presidency and the House
This article is about a simple two-variable equation forecasting presidential election outcomes and a three-variable equation forecasting seat change in House elections. Over the past two decades a cottage industry of political forecasting has developed (Lewis-Beck and Rice 1992; Campbell and Garand 2000). At the 1994 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, several participants offered their forecasts of the upcoming midterm House …
Party Identification: Constancy and Change
Party identification has long been thought to be the unmoved mover of political evaluations. The research presented here shows that party identification is changeable. In fact, over a 2-year period (1990-1992), we can see that there is a substantively important amount of movement. MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson argue that expectations, not retrospections, lie at the core of political economy. This work takes that logic and shows that the individua…
The Partisan Component to the Incumbency Advantage: 1956-1996
The power of incumbency in congressional elections is widely accepted. Is there a partisan component to the incumbency advantage? The theories of divided government push in two directions. Jacobson's argument would lead one to believe that the Democrats should be advantaged. Fiorina's argument would lead one to believe that there should be no difference between the parties. Using the American National Election Studies of 1956 through 1996, one ca…
Making Choices about Choice: House Support for Abortion Funding
Forecast 2000: An Afterthought
The Challenge of Forecasting the 2024 Presidential and House Elections: Economic Pessimism and Election Outcomes
Using a forecasting model based on economic pessimism and recognizing the difficulties of making such a forecast in such atypical times, the forecasting model predicts a narrow loss for the incumbent presidential party and a loss of 12 seats in the House of Representatives. Even with the unusual nature of politics in the United States over the past decade, this model does a good job of predicting election outcomes. The more pessimistic people are…
Economic Pessimism and the 2022 Election: A Postmortem
Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment in 2020
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Why the Democrat-Republican Partisanship Gap Varies From Poll to Poll
Polls taken in late 1980 and 1984 varied by up to 20 points in the spread they reported between Democratic and Republican identifiers. We found three systematic and sizable differences across polls: polls that sample only voters, polls that emphasize “today” or the present in their question wording, and polls that are taken close to election day (at least in circumstances like those of 1984) tend to favor the party currently advantaged in the pre…
Economics, Votes, Protests: Western European Cases
In Western European studies, general investigations of mass political participation are an established tradition. However, these efforts have not drawn from the vigorous current of research on economics and politics. Specifically for Western Europe, there exists no systematic work on economic conditions and political participation (conventional or unconventional). Here we integrate these economic arguments into general explanations of both partic…
Getting Inside the Beltway: Perceptions of Presidential Skill and Success in Congress
Different methodological approaches sometimes lead to different substantive conclusions. Nowhere is this more evident than in studies relating assessments of presidential skill to legislative success. Scholars of the historical, traditionalist school of presidency research argue that presidents who are perceived to be adept at getting what they want are more likely to achieve their legislative goals than are those perceived as less adept. Neustad…
Question Wording and Public Support for Contra Aid, 1983-1986
How does question wording affect the results of polls? How can we distinguish question wording effects from genuine change? In this analysis, we make use of a series of polls concerning President Reagan's policy toward Nicaragua. We identify five variations in wording in the survey items that have been used on this topic, and we find evidence that these are responsible for variations in support for the Contras. If the ideological nature of the Sa…
The temporal pattern of economic evaluations and vote choice in Senate elections
Prospective Economic Voting in U. S. House Elections, 1956-88
The influence of levels of information on the use of prospective evaluations
Economic dissatisfaction and political alienation in Western Europe
Using Euro‐Barometers 20 and 21, this research examines the role of economic discontent in promoting disenchantment with democracy in Great Britain, France, West Germany, and Italy. Both cognitive and affective economic evaluations have a strong effect on one's level of political alienation. Those who believe the government will have a negative effect on the economy in the future and those who are angry over their government's management of the e…
Making Choices about Choice: House Support for Abortion Funding
The Sophomore Surge: Conversion, Mobilization, or Abstention
The Sophomore Surge: Conversion, Mobilization, or Abstention
The incumbency advantage and its cause(s) is a question that political scientists have addressed for several years. This article looks at one piece of the puzzle: the sophomore surge. Using the American National Election Panel Studies of 1956-1960 and 1972-1976, I examine three possible scenarios for the sophomore surge: conversion, mobilization, and absten tion. The evidence presented herein supports the argument that first-term incumbents are a…
Party Contacting and Political Participation, 1952-90
Although the role of political parties in structuring vote choice has become considerably weaker in the last 30 years, we find that parties continue to be active organizations and contact one-fifth to one-quarter of the electorate, an activity that has important consequences. Specifically, when contacted by the parties, individuals have a greater propensity to vote and to engage in other political activities. We also find that each of the two maj…
The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War
The conventional wisdom of national elections suggests that there are electoral costs associated with opposing declarations of war. However, an alternative literature contends that the negative electoral consequences of waging war may be borne by legislators who supported war, especially those members of the majority party. The authors test this assumption by examining the electoral consequences of supporting or opposing the declarations of war f…
An Integrative Approach to Modeling Presidential Success in Congress
We propose and test an integrative multivariate model predicting aggregate annual presidential success on House and Senate roll calls from 1953 to 1994. We incorporate presidency-centered, Congress-centered, agenda, and timing variables in our analysis. Our results show that there are important similarities and dissimilarities across legislative chambers. For both chambers, the percentage of co-partisans of the president and when they came into o…
The Partisan Component to the Incumbency Advantage: 1956-1996
The Partisan Component to the Incumbency Advantage: 1956-1996
The power of incumbency in congressional elections is widely accepted. Is there a partisan component to the incumbency advantage? The theories of divided government push in two directions. Jacobson's argument would lead one to believe that the Democrats should be advantaged. Fiorina's argument would lead one to believe that there should be no difference between the parties. Using the American National Election Studies of 1956 through 1996, one ca…
Forecast 2000: An Afterthought
Party Identification: Constancy and Change
Party identification has long been thought to be the unmoved mover of political evaluations. The research presented here shows that party identification is changeable. In fact, over a 2-year period (1990-1992), we can see that there is a substantively important amount of movement. MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson argue that expectations, not retrospections, lie at the core of political economy. This work takes that logic and shows that the individua…
A Look to the Future: Forecasting the 2004 Presidential Election
Forecasting provides the opportunity to put one's self to the test. Are our models of voting behavior accurate? It is easy to retrofit an explanation for what has happened in the past. Taking a chance on a forecast that can go wrong does not afford us that luxury. Forecasting can also teach a lesson in humility. Over the last decade, political scientists have been willing to gamble on their models. We have had some success. Everyone on the foreca…
After the Vote: Evaluating a Prospective Forecasting Model of Presidential Elections
There are two components to my model of presidential election forecasting: Given the enormous amount of work on voting behavior that finds prospective assessments of the economy to be strongly related to vote choice (e.g., Abramowitz 1985; Kuklinski and West 1981; Lewis-Beck 1988; Lockerbie 1992), I make use of a prospective economic item from the Survey of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior that asks if the next year will be better, worse, or the s…
Framing Effects on Public Opinion During Prewar and Major Combat Phases of the U.S. Wars with Iraq
Objectives. Our purpose was to develop and test several hypotheses concerning the impact of poll‐question wording on aggregate public support for war. We drew on general insights from framing theory and specific insights from various theories of public support for war. Methods. Our database consisted of two collections of aggregate poll results drawn from the prewar and major combat phases of the Gulf War (1990–1991) and the Second War with Iraq …
Election Forecasting: The Future of the Presidency and the House
This article is about a simple two-variable equation forecasting presidential election outcomes and a three-variable equation forecasting seat change in House elections. Over the past two decades a cottage industry of political forecasting has developed (Lewis-Beck and Rice 1992; Campbell and Garand 2000). At the 1994 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, several participants offered their forecasts of the upcoming midterm House …
A Retrospective on the Prospective Model: Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. At its most basic level, the Economic Expectations and Time-for-a-Change Model performed well in that it successfully forecast a Barack Obama victory. It was in estimating the two-party vote that the model underperformed. The point estimate was …
Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes: The Presidency and the House in 2012
Do our models of political behavior bear any resemblance to reality? Forecasting elections is one opportunity to assess whether our models of voting behavior are accurate. Over the past few decades, political scientists have been willing to put themselves out there to forecast elections. Explaining a past event allows us the ability to retrofit our models before we make them available to the broader community. In short, forecasting elections prov…
Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes
At its most basic level, this forecast of the 2012 presidential election performed successfully. The model forecasted the reelection of President Obama. With 53.8% of the two-party vote; he ended up with 51.8% (as of November 28, 2012), yielding an error of 2.0 percentage points. Prior to 2012 the average out-of-sample forecasting error was 3.34 points. Here, the model does better than the average of the previous years by almost a point. Running …
Political science (31 works) · Law (27 works) · Politics (27 works) · Economics (21 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (21 works) · Law (17 works) · Political economy (15 works) · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy (10 works) · Presidential system (10 works) · Voting (9 works)