Jacob Schewe
Biographic Data
| ID | 4197530 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jacob Schewe |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jacob |
| FAMILY NAME | Schewe |
| SIGNATURE | SCHEWE J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9455-4159 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 23 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 23 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the ‘model evaluation and impact attribution’ part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive ev…
A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
BACKGROUNDInternational migration is influenced by economic and social factors that change over time.However, given the complexity of these relationships, global population scenarios to date include only stylized migration assumptions that do not account for changes in the drivers of migration.On the other hand, existing projection models of international migration do not resolve all demographic dimensions necessary to interact with the cohort-co…
Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa
Quantitative climate and conflict research has thus far considered the role of biophysical extreme weather impacts in conflict dynamics only to a limited extent. We do not fully understand if and if so how, extreme weather impacts can improve conflict predictions. Addressing this gap, we use the Generalized Random Forest (GRF) algorithm to evaluate whether detailed information on extreme weather impacts improves conflict forecasts made with well …
Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics
The major social and economic impacts of international migration have led to a strong interest in better understanding the drivers of cross-border movement. Quantitative models have sought to explain global migration patterns in terms of economic, social, climatic, and other variables, and future projections of these variables are increasingly being used to forecast international migration flows. An important implicit assumption in the most widel…
More people too poor to move
The observed temperature increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions has impacted economies worldwide. National income levels in origin and destination countries influence international migration. Emigration is relatively low not only from high income countries but also from very poor regions, which is explained in current migration theory by credit constraints and lower average education levels, among other reasons. These relationships sugges…
Groundswell Part 2
This sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 201…
Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods
Every year, millions of people around the world are being displaced from their homes due to climate-related disasters. River flooding is responsible for a large part of this displacement. Previous studies have shown that river flood risk is expected to change as a result of global warming and its effects on the hydrological cycle. At the same time, future scenarios of socio-economic development imply substantial population increases in many of th…
Evaluation of river flood extent simulated with multiple global hydrological models and climate forcings
Global flood models (GFMs) are increasingly being used to estimate global-scale societal and economic risks of river flooding. Recent validation studies have highlighted substantial differences in performance between GFMs and between validation sites. However, it has not been systematically quantified to what extent the choice of the underlying climate forcing and global hydrological model (GHM) influence flood model performance. Here, we investi…
Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints
Anticipating changes in international migration patterns is useful for demographic studies and for designing policies that support the well-being of those involved. Existing forecasting methods do not account for a number of stylized facts that emerge from
Groundswell
This report, which focuses on three regions—Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America that together represent 55 percent of the developing world’s population—finds that climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate within their countries by 2050. It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 2.8 percent of the population of these three regions—could be forced to m…
Magnitude and robustness associated with the climate change impacts on global hydrological variables for transient and stabilized climate states
Recent studies have assessed the impacts of climate change at specific global temperature targets using relatively short (30 year ) transient time-slice periods which are characterized by a steady increase in global mean temperature with time. The Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) provides trend-preserving bias-corrected climate model datasets over six centuries for four global climate models (GCMs) which th…
Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts
Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catch…
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks
The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives …
The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models
Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and d…
The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices
Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply–demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends…
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of …
Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change
Significance Humans alter the water cycle by constructing dams and through water withdrawals. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, model analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented. The results indicate that the impact of man-made reservoirs and water withdrawals on the long-term global terrestrial water balance is small. However, in some river basins…
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP)
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives an…
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forc…
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change
Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simu…
A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India
Indian monsoon rainfall is vital for a large share of the world’s population. Both reliably projecting India’s future precipitation and unraveling abrupt cessations of monsoon rainfall found in paleorecords require improved understanding of its stability properties. While details of monsoon circulations and the associated rainfall are complex, full-season failure is dominated by large-scale positive feedbacks within the region. Here we find that …
A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
BACKGROUNDInternational migration is influenced by economic and social factors that change over time.However, given the complexity of these relationships, global population scenarios to date include only stylized migration assumptions that do not account for changes in the drivers of migration.On the other hand, existing projection models of international migration do not resolve all demographic dimensions necessary to interact with the cohort-co…
A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India
Indian monsoon rainfall is vital for a large share of the world’s population. Both reliably projecting India’s future precipitation and unraveling abrupt cessations of monsoon rainfall found in paleorecords require improved understanding of its stability properties. While details of monsoon circulations and the associated rainfall are complex, full-season failure is dominated by large-scale positive feedbacks within the region. Here we find that …
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change
Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simu…
Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change
Significance Humans alter the water cycle by constructing dams and through water withdrawals. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, model analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented. The results indicate that the impact of man-made reservoirs and water withdrawals on the long-term global terrestrial water balance is small. However, in some river basins…
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP)
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives an…
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forc…
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of …
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks
The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives …
The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models
Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and d…
The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices
Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply–demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends…
Groundswell
This report, which focuses on three regions—Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America that together represent 55 percent of the developing world’s population—finds that climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate within their countries by 2050. It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 2.8 percent of the population of these three regions—could be forced to m…
Magnitude and robustness associated with the climate change impacts on global hydrological variables for transient and stabilized climate states
Recent studies have assessed the impacts of climate change at specific global temperature targets using relatively short (30 year ) transient time-slice periods which are characterized by a steady increase in global mean temperature with time. The Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) provides trend-preserving bias-corrected climate model datasets over six centuries for four global climate models (GCMs) which th…
Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts
Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catch…
Groundswell Part 2
This sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 201…
Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods
Every year, millions of people around the world are being displaced from their homes due to climate-related disasters. River flooding is responsible for a large part of this displacement. Previous studies have shown that river flood risk is expected to change as a result of global warming and its effects on the hydrological cycle. At the same time, future scenarios of socio-economic development imply substantial population increases in many of th…
Evaluation of river flood extent simulated with multiple global hydrological models and climate forcings
Global flood models (GFMs) are increasingly being used to estimate global-scale societal and economic risks of river flooding. Recent validation studies have highlighted substantial differences in performance between GFMs and between validation sites. However, it has not been systematically quantified to what extent the choice of the underlying climate forcing and global hydrological model (GHM) influence flood model performance. Here, we investi…
Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints
Anticipating changes in international migration patterns is useful for demographic studies and for designing policies that support the well-being of those involved. Existing forecasting methods do not account for a number of stylized facts that emerge from
Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics
The major social and economic impacts of international migration have led to a strong interest in better understanding the drivers of cross-border movement. Quantitative models have sought to explain global migration patterns in terms of economic, social, climatic, and other variables, and future projections of these variables are increasingly being used to forecast international migration flows. An important implicit assumption in the most widel…
More people too poor to move
The observed temperature increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions has impacted economies worldwide. National income levels in origin and destination countries influence international migration. Emigration is relatively low not only from high income countries but also from very poor regions, which is explained in current migration theory by credit constraints and lower average education levels, among other reasons. These relationships sugges…
Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa
Quantitative climate and conflict research has thus far considered the role of biophysical extreme weather impacts in conflict dynamics only to a limited extent. We do not fully understand if and if so how, extreme weather impacts can improve conflict predictions. Addressing this gap, we use the Generalized Random Forest (GRF) algorithm to evaluate whether detailed information on extreme weather impacts improves conflict forecasts made with well …
Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the ‘model evaluation and impact attribution’ part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive ev…
A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
BACKGROUNDInternational migration is influenced by economic and social factors that change over time.However, given the complexity of these relationships, global population scenarios to date include only stylized migration assumptions that do not account for changes in the drivers of migration.On the other hand, existing projection models of international migration do not resolve all demographic dimensions necessary to interact with the cohort-co…
Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Science (15 works) · Climate change (14 works) · Geography (13 works) · Climatology (12 works) · Climate variability and models (8 works) · Ecology (8 works) · Economics (8 works) · Geology (8 works) · Global warming (8 works) · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies (8 works)