Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549151 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Pui Man Kam (0000-0002-6374-4969, ETH Zurich, corresponding author), Gabriela Aznar–Siguán (0000-0002-1947-4703, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss), Gabriela Aznar-Siguan, Jacob Schewe (0000-0001-9455-4159, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), L J Milano (0000-0003-1563-640X), Justin Ginnetti, Sven Willner (0000-0001-6798-6247, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Jamie W McCaughey (0000-0003-1490-5022, ETH Zurich), David N Bresch (0000-0002-8431-4263, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 044026-044026 |
| Publication date | 2021-03-24 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/abd26c |
| OpenAlex | W3137328924 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 17 |
| References cited | 40 |
Every year, millions of people around the world are being displaced from their homes due to climate-related disasters. River flooding is responsible for a large part of this displacement. Previous studies have shown that river flood risk is expected to change as a result of global warming and its effects on the hydrological cycle. At the same time, future scenarios of socio-economic development imply substantial population increases in many of the areas that presently experience disaster-induced displacement. Here we show that both global warming and population change are projected to lead to substantial increases in flood-induced displacement risk over the coming decades. We use a global climate-hydrology-inundation modelling chain, including multiple alternative climate and hydrological models, to quantify the effect of global warming on displacement risk assuming either current or projected future population distributions. Keeping population fixed at present levels, we find roughly a 50% increase in global displacement risk for every degree of global warming. Adding projected population changes further exacerbates these increases globally and in most world regions, with the relative global flood displacement risk is increasing by roughly 350% at the end of the 21st century, compared to an increase of 150% without the contribution of population change. While the resolution of the global models is limited, the effect of global warming is robust across greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, climate models and hydrological models. These findings indicate a need for rapid action on both climate mitigation and adaptation agendas in order to reduce future risks to vulnerable populations
Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Economics · Effects of global warming · Flood myth · Flooding (psychology · Geography · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Natural resource economics · Population · Water cycle · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Ecology · Geology
Climate change effects on riverbank erosion Bait community flood-prone area of Punjab, Pakistan
China’s growing human displacement risk caused by floods under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming and beyond
‘Prepare’ yourself
Examining the mismatch between regulatory flood boundaries and actual flood extent
Health and livelihood impacts of flood hazards on internally displaced persons in Pakistan
A multicriteria decision model to improve emergency preparedness
Nationwide evaluation of changes in fluvial and pluvial flood damage and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Japan under population decline
Enabling pathways for sustainable livelihoods in planned relocation
Bridging the adaptation finance gap
Climate change and migration
Displacement risk
Population exposure to flooding in Small Island Developing States under climate change
Choosing to protect
Unknown risk
Climate change flood risks and post-flood agricultural and non-agricultural economic losses in flood-prone Bait households Muzaffargarh district of Punjab, Pakistan
Climate change vulnerability and multidimensional poverty in flood prone rural areas of Punjab, Pakistan
Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh
Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system
The representative concentration pathways
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Assessing flood risk at the global scale
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Socio-economic consequences of post-disaster reconstruction in hazard-exposed areas
Climate-related displacement, impoverishment and healthcare accessibility in mainland Bangladesh
The SSP4
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
Disaster vulnerability, displacement, and infectious disease
Choice and Constraints in Floodplain Occupation
| Unique citing works | 17 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,25 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 16 |