Michael B Lustik
Biographic Data
| ID | 4372248 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Michael B Lustik |
| GIVEN NAMES | Michael B |
| FAMILY NAME | Lustik |
| SIGNATURE | LUSTIK M B |
| AFFILIATIONS | Science Applications International Corporation (United States) |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8758-5341 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 2 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 182 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 2 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2007 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2010 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two‐year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors…
Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy
This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections f…
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two‐year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors…
Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy
This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections f…
Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy
This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections f…
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two‐year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors…
Democracy (2 works) · Law (2 works) · Law (2 works) · Political science (2 works) · Politics (2 works) · Autocracy (1 works) · Computer Science (1 works) · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies (1 works) · Econometrics (1 works) · Economics (1 works)