A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6231273 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jack A Goldstone, Jack Α Goldstone (0000-0003-1524-6081, George Mason University), Robert H Bates (0000-0003-1926-8114, Harvard University), David Epstein (0000-0002-1164-6291), David L Epstein, David Mark Epstein (0000-0002-2275-0916, Columbia University), Ted Robert Gurr (University of Maryland, College Park), Michael B Lustik (0000-0002-8758-5341, Science Applications International Corporation (United States)), Monty G Marshall (George Mason University), Jay Ulfelder (Science Applications International Corporation (United States)), Mark Woodward (0000-0001-9800-5296, Arizona State University) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 54 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 190-208 |
| Publication date | 2010-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x |
| OpenAlex | W2167872858 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 290 |
| References cited | 44 |
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two‐year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21‐point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five‐category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability
Autocracy · Democracy · Econometrics · Economics · Instability · Measure (data warehouse · Physics · Political instability · Political science · Politics · Polity · Computer Science · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Religion and Society Interactions
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| Unique citing works | 290 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 17,06 |
| Citation span | 2009 - 2026 (18) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 288 |