Monty G Marshall
Biographic Data
| ID | 698691 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Monty G Marshall |
| GIVEN NAMES | Monty G |
| FAMILY NAME | Marshall |
| SIGNATURE | MARSHALL M G |
| AFFILIATIONS | George Mason University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 7 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 278 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 7 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1999 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2023 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Societal-System Analytics and the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging (and Declining) Democracies
For over twenty years the U.S. Government's Political Instability Task Force (PITF; originally known as the State Failure Task Force) conducted extensive analysis and modeling of political instability and democratic transition events.The two most recent phases of this research have identified the Polity indicator of 'factionalism' (PARCOMP=3) to be the most statistically powerful, precursive condition in modeling the onsets of serious political i…
Demographic growth in dangerous places: Concentrating conflict risks
If one merely counts countries becoming democratic, progress in the international system looks impressive. However, more relevant for future stability is whether countries—whether democratic or not—are fragile, having ineffective and/or illegitimate governments. Moreover, the size of fragile countries, not merely their number, will be important for the future. Recent data shows that fertility has stalled at very high levels in many fragile states…
The Measurement of Democracy and the Means of History
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two‐year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors…
Polity Iv, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen
Polity IV, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen
Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two‐year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors…
Polity IV, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen
Polity Iv, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen
Demographic growth in dangerous places: Concentrating conflict risks
If one merely counts countries becoming democratic, progress in the international system looks impressive. However, more relevant for future stability is whether countries—whether democratic or not—are fragile, having ineffective and/or illegitimate governments. Moreover, the size of fragile countries, not merely their number, will be important for the future. Recent data shows that fertility has stalled at very high levels in many fragile states…
Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics
Polity Iv, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen
Polity IV, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two‐year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors…
The Measurement of Democracy and the Means of History
Demographic growth in dangerous places: Concentrating conflict risks
If one merely counts countries becoming democratic, progress in the international system looks impressive. However, more relevant for future stability is whether countries—whether democratic or not—are fragile, having ineffective and/or illegitimate governments. Moreover, the size of fragile countries, not merely their number, will be important for the future. Recent data shows that fertility has stalled at very high levels in many fragile states…
Societal-System Analytics and the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging (and Declining) Democracies
For over twenty years the U.S. Government's Political Instability Task Force (PITF; originally known as the State Failure Task Force) conducted extensive analysis and modeling of political instability and democratic transition events.The two most recent phases of this research have identified the Polity indicator of 'factionalism' (PARCOMP=3) to be the most statistically powerful, precursive condition in modeling the onsets of serious political i…
Political science (7 works) · Politics (6 works) · Law (4 works) · Sociology (4 works) · Computer Science (3 works) · Democracy (3 works) · Economics (3 works) · Law (3 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (3 works) · Polity (3 works)