Matthew D Cebul
Biographic Data
| ID | 4375034 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Matthew D Cebul |
| GIVEN NAMES | Matthew D |
| FAMILY NAME | Cebul |
| SIGNATURE | CEBUL M D |
| AFFILIATIONS | United States Institute of Peace |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1579-837X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 6 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 32 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 6 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2021 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments
How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? Armed rebellions are often sustained by outside sympathy and support, which conditions global coordination to end intrastate conflict. Studies on reducing such support largely neglect how the emergence of alternative, nonviolent resistance groups impacts international support for violent resistance. Nonviolent alternatives could plausibly increase support for ar…
Can Religious Reinterpretations Bridge the Secular-Religious Divide? Experimental Evidence from Tunisia
Domestic politics around the globe have become increasingly polarized along secular-religious lines. Recent literature suggests that one way to ease secular-religious tension and gridlock is for religious leaders to offer progressive reinterpretations of religious texts, that might convince religious conservatives to compromise from their seemingly-fixed policy positions. But can everyday citizens deploy religious reinterpretations themselves? We…
Mediated Audience Costs: Jordan–Israeli Diplomacy before the 1967 Arab–Israeli War
Audience cost theory remains prominent in scholarship on international crises. However, the theory suffers from several weaknesses, including a lack of historical evidence and concerns about the visibility of audience costs to foreign adversaries. This article engages with both concerns. I theorize that third-party diplomacy can help leaders signal their audience costs by corroborating their vulnerability to domestic punishment. I illustrate this…
Military Conscription and Nonviolent Resistance
Nonviolent campaigns against repressive regimes often turn on the military’s decision to either defend the ruler or make common cause with the ruled. Yet surprisingly little scholarship investigates opposition expectations for the military’s likely response to mass protest. We theorize that some determinants of the military’s willingness to repress are more observable to activists than others. In particular, we identify conscription as a highly s…
Coercion and the Credibility of Assurances
What makes coercion succeed? For most international relations scholars, the answer is credible threats. Yet scholars have neglected a second key component of successful coercion: credible assurances. This article makes two contributions to our understanding of coercion and credible assurances. First, we offer a theoretical framework exploring the causes and consequences of assurance credibility. In order to coerce the target, a challenger must is…
Reputations for Resolve and Higher-Order Beliefs in Crisis Bargaining
Reputations for resolve are said to be one of the few things worth fighting for, yet they remain inadequately understood. Discussions of reputation focus almost exclusively on first-order belief change— A stands firm, B updates its beliefs about A’s resolve. Such first-order reputational effects are important, but they are not the whole story. Higher-order beliefs—what A believes about B’s beliefs, and so on—matter a great deal as well. When A co…
Coercion and the Credibility of Assurances
What makes coercion succeed? For most international relations scholars, the answer is credible threats. Yet scholars have neglected a second key component of successful coercion: credible assurances. This article makes two contributions to our understanding of coercion and credible assurances. First, we offer a theoretical framework exploring the causes and consequences of assurance credibility. In order to coerce the target, a challenger must is…
Military Conscription and Nonviolent Resistance
Nonviolent campaigns against repressive regimes often turn on the military’s decision to either defend the ruler or make common cause with the ruled. Yet surprisingly little scholarship investigates opposition expectations for the military’s likely response to mass protest. We theorize that some determinants of the military’s willingness to repress are more observable to activists than others. In particular, we identify conscription as a highly s…
Can Religious Reinterpretations Bridge the Secular-Religious Divide? Experimental Evidence from Tunisia
Domestic politics around the globe have become increasingly polarized along secular-religious lines. Recent literature suggests that one way to ease secular-religious tension and gridlock is for religious leaders to offer progressive reinterpretations of religious texts, that might convince religious conservatives to compromise from their seemingly-fixed policy positions. But can everyday citizens deploy religious reinterpretations themselves? We…
Reputations for Resolve and Higher-Order Beliefs in Crisis Bargaining
Reputations for resolve are said to be one of the few things worth fighting for, yet they remain inadequately understood. Discussions of reputation focus almost exclusively on first-order belief change— A stands firm, B updates its beliefs about A’s resolve. Such first-order reputational effects are important, but they are not the whole story. Higher-order beliefs—what A believes about B’s beliefs, and so on—matter a great deal as well. When A co…
Mediated Audience Costs: Jordan–Israeli Diplomacy before the 1967 Arab–Israeli War
Audience cost theory remains prominent in scholarship on international crises. However, the theory suffers from several weaknesses, including a lack of historical evidence and concerns about the visibility of audience costs to foreign adversaries. This article engages with both concerns. I theorize that third-party diplomacy can help leaders signal their audience costs by corroborating their vulnerability to domestic punishment. I illustrate this…
Coercion and the Credibility of Assurances
What makes coercion succeed? For most international relations scholars, the answer is credible threats. Yet scholars have neglected a second key component of successful coercion: credible assurances. This article makes two contributions to our understanding of coercion and credible assurances. First, we offer a theoretical framework exploring the causes and consequences of assurance credibility. In order to coerce the target, a challenger must is…
Reputations for Resolve and Higher-Order Beliefs in Crisis Bargaining
Reputations for resolve are said to be one of the few things worth fighting for, yet they remain inadequately understood. Discussions of reputation focus almost exclusively on first-order belief change— A stands firm, B updates its beliefs about A’s resolve. Such first-order reputational effects are important, but they are not the whole story. Higher-order beliefs—what A believes about B’s beliefs, and so on—matter a great deal as well. When A co…
Mediated Audience Costs: Jordan–Israeli Diplomacy before the 1967 Arab–Israeli War
Audience cost theory remains prominent in scholarship on international crises. However, the theory suffers from several weaknesses, including a lack of historical evidence and concerns about the visibility of audience costs to foreign adversaries. This article engages with both concerns. I theorize that third-party diplomacy can help leaders signal their audience costs by corroborating their vulnerability to domestic punishment. I illustrate this…
Military Conscription and Nonviolent Resistance
Nonviolent campaigns against repressive regimes often turn on the military’s decision to either defend the ruler or make common cause with the ruled. Yet surprisingly little scholarship investigates opposition expectations for the military’s likely response to mass protest. We theorize that some determinants of the military’s willingness to repress are more observable to activists than others. In particular, we identify conscription as a highly s…
Can Religious Reinterpretations Bridge the Secular-Religious Divide? Experimental Evidence from Tunisia
Domestic politics around the globe have become increasingly polarized along secular-religious lines. Recent literature suggests that one way to ease secular-religious tension and gridlock is for religious leaders to offer progressive reinterpretations of religious texts, that might convince religious conservatives to compromise from their seemingly-fixed policy positions. But can everyday citizens deploy religious reinterpretations themselves? We…
Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments
How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? Armed rebellions are often sustained by outside sympathy and support, which conditions global coordination to end intrastate conflict. Studies on reducing such support largely neglect how the emergence of alternative, nonviolent resistance groups impacts international support for violent resistance. Nonviolent alternatives could plausibly increase support for ar…
Law (6 works) · Political science (6 works) · Law (5 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (5 works) · Sociology (5 works) · Psychology (4 works) · Politics (3 works) · Scholarship (3 works) · Social Psychology (3 works) · Social Psychology (3 works)