Luke Kemp
Biographic Data
| ID | 4425072 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Luke Kemp |
| GIVEN NAMES | Luke |
| FAMILY NAME | Kemp |
| SIGNATURE | KEMP L |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Cambridge |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7447-4335 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 10 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 25 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 10 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Exploring futures for the science of global risk
Past Answers to Present Concerns. The Relevance of the Premodern Past for 21st Century Policy Planners: Comments on the State of the Field
How is history relevant to the present, or indeed the future? Governments around the world have used history to inform planning and decision‐making in various fields for years, but more recently it has taken on a renewed importance as governments grapple with increasingly complex challenges arising from the impacts of climatic change. Yet identifying “lessons from the past” is not straightforward. Especially in the case of big questions about his…
Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst‐case scenarios of climate change
Many now argue that we should think about the previously unthinkable risks of climate change, including societal collapses and human extinction. Calamitous images of the future are not pathological or counterproductive: it is both necessary and valuable to imagine the worst‐case scenarios of climate change. Critics of climate catastrophe often group together all visions of disastrous futures under labels like doomism or pessimism. This is unhelpf…
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extre…
Betting on the best case: Higher end warming is underrepresented in research
We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected
Assessing climate change’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Fragmentation and the Future: Investigating Architectures for International AI Governance
The international governance of artificial intelligence (AI) is at a crossroads: should it remain fragmented or be centralised? We draw on the history of environment, trade, and security regimes to identify advantages and disadvantages in centralising AI governance. Some considerations, such as efficiency and political power, speak for centralisation. The risk of creating a slow and brittle institution, and the difficulty of pairing deep rules wi…
Learning from the Climate Change Debate to Avoid Polarisation on Negative Emissions
This paper identifies critical lessons from the climate change experience to guide how communications and engagement on negative emissions can be conducted to encourage functional public and policy discourse. Negative emissions technologies present a significant opportunity for limiting climate change, and are likely to be necessary to keep warming below 2°C. While the concept of negative emissions is still in its infancy, there is evidence of na…
Accumulating evidence using crowdsourcing and machine learning: A living bibliography about existential risk and global catastrophic risk
The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of rese…
Framework for the future? Exploring the possibility of majority voting in the climate negotiations
Assessing climate change’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Framework for the future? Exploring the possibility of majority voting in the climate negotiations
Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst‐case scenarios of climate change
Many now argue that we should think about the previously unthinkable risks of climate change, including societal collapses and human extinction. Calamitous images of the future are not pathological or counterproductive: it is both necessary and valuable to imagine the worst‐case scenarios of climate change. Critics of climate catastrophe often group together all visions of disastrous futures under labels like doomism or pessimism. This is unhelpf…
Accumulating evidence using crowdsourcing and machine learning: A living bibliography about existential risk and global catastrophic risk
The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of rese…
Past Answers to Present Concerns. The Relevance of the Premodern Past for 21st Century Policy Planners: Comments on the State of the Field
How is history relevant to the present, or indeed the future? Governments around the world have used history to inform planning and decision‐making in various fields for years, but more recently it has taken on a renewed importance as governments grapple with increasingly complex challenges arising from the impacts of climatic change. Yet identifying “lessons from the past” is not straightforward. Especially in the case of big questions about his…
Framework for the future? Exploring the possibility of majority voting in the climate negotiations
Fragmentation and the Future: Investigating Architectures for International AI Governance
The international governance of artificial intelligence (AI) is at a crossroads: should it remain fragmented or be centralised? We draw on the history of environment, trade, and security regimes to identify advantages and disadvantages in centralising AI governance. Some considerations, such as efficiency and political power, speak for centralisation. The risk of creating a slow and brittle institution, and the difficulty of pairing deep rules wi…
Learning from the Climate Change Debate to Avoid Polarisation on Negative Emissions
This paper identifies critical lessons from the climate change experience to guide how communications and engagement on negative emissions can be conducted to encourage functional public and policy discourse. Negative emissions technologies present a significant opportunity for limiting climate change, and are likely to be necessary to keep warming below 2°C. While the concept of negative emissions is still in its infancy, there is evidence of na…
Accumulating evidence using crowdsourcing and machine learning: A living bibliography about existential risk and global catastrophic risk
The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of rese…
Betting on the best case: Higher end warming is underrepresented in research
We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected
Assessing climate change’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extre…
Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst‐case scenarios of climate change
Many now argue that we should think about the previously unthinkable risks of climate change, including societal collapses and human extinction. Calamitous images of the future are not pathological or counterproductive: it is both necessary and valuable to imagine the worst‐case scenarios of climate change. Critics of climate catastrophe often group together all visions of disastrous futures under labels like doomism or pessimism. This is unhelpf…
Past Answers to Present Concerns. The Relevance of the Premodern Past for 21st Century Policy Planners: Comments on the State of the Field
How is history relevant to the present, or indeed the future? Governments around the world have used history to inform planning and decision‐making in various fields for years, but more recently it has taken on a renewed importance as governments grapple with increasingly complex challenges arising from the impacts of climatic change. Yet identifying “lessons from the past” is not straightforward. Especially in the case of big questions about his…
Exploring futures for the science of global risk
Political science (7 works) · Climate change (5 works) · Economics (5 works) · Sociology (5 works) · Business (4 works) · Computer Science (4 works) · Climate Change Policy and Economics (3 works) · Corporate governance (3 works) · Environmental ethics (3 works) · Environmental resource management (3 works)