Niall Mackay
Biographic Data
| ID | 4587838 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Niall Mackay |
| GIVEN NAMES | Niall |
| FAMILY NAME | Mackay |
| SIGNATURE | MACKAY N |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of York |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-3279-4717 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 6 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 6 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2011 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
The Strength of the Wolf is the Pack
In winter 1942–43 unique circumstances gave Germany’s U-boats the possibility of temporary victory in the North Atlantic. At the same time, Royal Navy operational research considered the possible German adoption of developed stand-off salvo tactics (“browning”), better suited to attacking large, dense convoys than Germany’s existing “ace” tactics of individual commanders infiltrating convoys. We test and verify the RN studies with a simulation, c…
Quantifying Counterfactual Military History
Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probabl…
Weighing the fog of war
The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis possible. The authors apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. They demonstrate that the battle's outcome was highly unlikely, with s…
Weight of Shell Must Tell
This article re‐analyses the 1916 battle of Jutland (German: Skagerrak), the major naval engagement of the First World War, in the light of the understanding of dreadnought fleet tactics developed over the decade leading up to it. In particular, it considers the interaction of the calculus of Lanchester's Square Law with fleet geometry and the commanders’ decisions that determined it, and with the shipbuilding decisions associated with the Lanche…
Fight the power
Safety in Numbers
This article examines the Big Wing controversy in the Battle of Britain according to the RAF's understanding of the principle of concentration. RAF doctrine was developed from Fuller's 1916 codification of the principles of war, which in terms of concentration rested on the work of engineer and air-power theorist F. W. Lanchester. We argue that fighter doctrine diverged from its Lanchestrian core between the wars and allowed conflicting interpret…
Safety in Numbers
This article examines the Big Wing controversy in the Battle of Britain according to the RAF's understanding of the principle of concentration. RAF doctrine was developed from Fuller's 1916 codification of the principles of war, which in terms of concentration rested on the work of engineer and air-power theorist F. W. Lanchester. We argue that fighter doctrine diverged from its Lanchestrian core between the wars and allowed conflicting interpret…
Safety in Numbers
This article examines the Big Wing controversy in the Battle of Britain according to the RAF's understanding of the principle of concentration. RAF doctrine was developed from Fuller's 1916 codification of the principles of war, which in terms of concentration rested on the work of engineer and air-power theorist F. W. Lanchester. We argue that fighter doctrine diverged from its Lanchestrian core between the wars and allowed conflicting interpret…
Fight the power
Weighing the fog of war
The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis possible. The authors apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. They demonstrate that the battle's outcome was highly unlikely, with s…
Weight of Shell Must Tell
This article re‐analyses the 1916 battle of Jutland (German: Skagerrak), the major naval engagement of the First World War, in the light of the understanding of dreadnought fleet tactics developed over the decade leading up to it. In particular, it considers the interaction of the calculus of Lanchester's Square Law with fleet geometry and the commanders’ decisions that determined it, and with the shipbuilding decisions associated with the Lanche…
Quantifying Counterfactual Military History
Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probabl…
The Strength of the Wolf is the Pack
In winter 1942–43 unique circumstances gave Germany’s U-boats the possibility of temporary victory in the North Atlantic. At the same time, Royal Navy operational research considered the possible German adoption of developed stand-off salvo tactics (“browning”), better suited to attacking large, dense convoys than Germany’s existing “ace” tactics of individual commanders infiltrating convoys. We test and verify the RN studies with a simulation, c…
Battle (4 works) · History (4 works) · History (4 works) · Engineering (3 works) · Law (3 works) · Military History and Strategy (3 works) · Operations research (3 works) · Political science (3 works) · Adversary (2 works) · Ancient history (2 works)