Weighing the fog of war

Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the Battle of the Dogger Bank

Bibliographic Data

ID11253379
AuthorsNiall Mackay (0000-0003-3279-4717, University of York, corresponding author), Christopher Price (0000-0002-7581-1823, York St John University), A Jamie Wood (0000-0002-6119-852X, University of York)
Year2016
Volume49
Issue2
Pages80-91
Publication date2016-04-02
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueHistorical Methods A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0161-5440 • E-ISSN: 1940-1906
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071
OpenAlexW2318688825
LanguageEN
References cited15

The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis possible. The authors apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. They demonstrate that the battle's outcome was highly unlikely, with significant implications both for subsequent actions and for historical understanding. Dogger Bank exemplifies the view that Bayesian methods offer historians the tool they need to grapple with the evolving probabilities of historical events, giving a sound scientific basis for counterfactual history and opening up a wealth of possibilities for analysis

Approximate Bayesian Computation · Archaeology · Art · Battle · Bayesian probability · Counterfactual thinking · Duration (music · Econometrics · Economics · Epistemology · Literature · Mathematical economics · Operations research · Outcome (game theory · Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference · Computer Science · Engineering · Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference · History · Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods · Philosophy · Artificial Intelligence