Tomaz Cajner
Biographic Data
| ID | 5731070 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Tomaz Cajner |
| GIVEN NAMES | Tomaz |
| FAMILY NAME | Cajner |
| SIGNATURE | CAJNER T |
| AFFILIATIONS | Federal Reserve Board of Governors |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 3 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 19 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 3 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2018 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Manufacturing Sentiment
This paper leverages free‐form textual responses from a key manufacturing survey to create sentiment indexes that mirror categorical measures from the same survey and also contain predictive content—both in and out‐of‐sample—for manufacturing output. We use textual data from the Institute for Supply Management to compare sentiment metrics based on dictionary and deep learning natural language processing methods. The best performing sentiment meas…
The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate
How cyclical is the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR)? We examine exogenous state-level business cycle shocks, finding that the LFPR is highly cyclical, but with significantly longer-lived responses than the unemployment rate. After a negative shock, the LFPR declines for about four years—substantially lagging unemployment—and only fully recovers after about eight years. Our main specifications use age-sex-adjusted LFPR, and we show that…
Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics
Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the data reveals that these workers have similar job finding rates, but much lower and less volatile separation rates than their less educated colleagues. We argue that on-the-job training, being complementary to formal education, is the reason for this pattern. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, we show t…
Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics
Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the data reveals that these workers have similar job finding rates, but much lower and less volatile separation rates than their less educated colleagues. We argue that on-the-job training, being complementary to formal education, is the reason for this pattern. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, we show t…
Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics
Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the data reveals that these workers have similar job finding rates, but much lower and less volatile separation rates than their less educated colleagues. We argue that on-the-job training, being complementary to formal education, is the reason for this pattern. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, we show t…
The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate
How cyclical is the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR)? We examine exogenous state-level business cycle shocks, finding that the LFPR is highly cyclical, but with significantly longer-lived responses than the unemployment rate. After a negative shock, the LFPR declines for about four years—substantially lagging unemployment—and only fully recovers after about eight years. Our main specifications use age-sex-adjusted LFPR, and we show that…
Manufacturing Sentiment
This paper leverages free‐form textual responses from a key manufacturing survey to create sentiment indexes that mirror categorical measures from the same survey and also contain predictive content—both in and out‐of‐sample—for manufacturing output. We use textual data from the Institute for Supply Management to compare sentiment metrics based on dictionary and deep learning natural language processing methods. The best performing sentiment meas…
Employment and Welfare Studies (2 works) · Unemployment (2 works) · Unemployment rate (2 works) · Beveridge curve (1 works) · Business cycle (1 works) · Categorical variable (1 works) · Deep learning (1 works) · Demographic economics (1 works) · Econometrics (1 works) · Economic growth (1 works)