Richard Startz
Biographic Data
| ID | 5734191 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Richard Startz |
| GIVEN NAMES | Richard |
| FAMILY NAME | Startz |
| SIGNATURE | STARTZ R |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Washington |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5162-2545 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 11 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 3 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 11 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1989 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Recessions, Recoveries, and Leverage
When leverage is low, recoveries from recessions are likely to eventually return the economy to its pre‐recession growth path. When leverage is high, recoveries are likely to leave the economy below its pre‐recession growth path. In other words, low‐leverage recessions are likely to be U‐shaped, whereas high‐leverage recessions are likely to be L‐shaped. The increase in leverage over the postwar period indicates that recent recessions are much mo…
Are Recoveries all the Same
Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L‐shaped’ or ‘U‐shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U‐shaped recovery for postwar NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U‐shaped but more recent recessions have been L‐shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relati…
Response to “Comment on ‘Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling
Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling
Recycling materials from end‐of‐life products has the potential to create environmental benefit by displacing more harmful primary material production. However, displacement is governed by market forces and is not guaranteed; if full displacement does not occur, the environmental benefits of recycling are reduced or eliminated. Therefore, quantifying the true “displacement rate” caused by recycling is essential to accurately assess environmental …
A Market‐Based Framework for Quantifying Displaced Production from Recycling or Reuse
The most significant environmental benefit of recycling or reusing a wide range of products and materials is typically the potential to displace primary material production; lack of displacement significantly reduces the environmental benefits of these activities. Because no consensus method to estimate displacement rate has emerged, environmental assessments have tended to assume that displacement occurs on a one‐to‐one basis. However, displaced…
Binomial Autoregressive Moving Average Models With an Application to U.S. Recessions
Binary Autoregressive Moving Average (BARMA) models provide a modeling technology for binary time series analogous to the classic Gaussian ARMA models used for continuous data. BARMA models mitigate the curse of dimensionality found in long lag Markov models and allow for non-Markovian persistence. The autopersistence function (APF) and autopersistence graph (APG) provide analogs to the autocorrelation function and correlogram. Parameters of the …
Measuring the Nairu with Reduced Uncertainty
Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variab…
Information and racial exclusion
Ten. Inequality and Race
Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Fractional Cointegration with an Application to U.S. and Canadian Bond Rates
We estimate a multivariate ARFIMA model to illustrate a cointegration testing methodology based on joint estimates of the fractional orders of integration of a cointegrating vector and its parent series. Previous cointegration tests relied on a two-step testing procedure and maintained the assumption in the second step that the parent series were known to have a unit root. In our empirical example of fractional cointegration, we illustrate how un…
The Stochastic Behavior of Durable and Nondurable Consumption
The life cycle/permanent income hypothesis suggests that optimization by consumers should cause marginal utility to approximate a random walk. As a consequence, purchases of nondurable goods should also approximately follow a random walk and purchases of durable goods should approximately follow a white noise process. The univariate processes for nondurables and durables both appear to be random walks, which would confirm the LC/PIH for nondurabl…
The Stochastic Behavior of Durable and Nondurable Consumption
The life cycle/permanent income hypothesis suggests that optimization by consumers should cause marginal utility to approximate a random walk. As a consequence, purchases of nondurable goods should also approximately follow a random walk and purchases of durable goods should approximately follow a white noise process. The univariate processes for nondurables and durables both appear to be random walks, which would confirm the LC/PIH for nondurabl…
Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Fractional Cointegration with an Application to U.S. and Canadian Bond Rates
We estimate a multivariate ARFIMA model to illustrate a cointegration testing methodology based on joint estimates of the fractional orders of integration of a cointegrating vector and its parent series. Previous cointegration tests relied on a two-step testing procedure and maintained the assumption in the second step that the parent series were known to have a unit root. In our empirical example of fractional cointegration, we illustrate how un…
Ten. Inequality and Race
Information and racial exclusion
Binomial Autoregressive Moving Average Models With an Application to U.S. Recessions
Binary Autoregressive Moving Average (BARMA) models provide a modeling technology for binary time series analogous to the classic Gaussian ARMA models used for continuous data. BARMA models mitigate the curse of dimensionality found in long lag Markov models and allow for non-Markovian persistence. The autopersistence function (APF) and autopersistence graph (APG) provide analogs to the autocorrelation function and correlogram. Parameters of the …
Measuring the Nairu with Reduced Uncertainty
Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variab…
A Market‐Based Framework for Quantifying Displaced Production from Recycling or Reuse
The most significant environmental benefit of recycling or reusing a wide range of products and materials is typically the potential to displace primary material production; lack of displacement significantly reduces the environmental benefits of these activities. Because no consensus method to estimate displacement rate has emerged, environmental assessments have tended to assume that displacement occurs on a one‐to‐one basis. However, displaced…
Response to “Comment on ‘Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling
Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling
Recycling materials from end‐of‐life products has the potential to create environmental benefit by displacing more harmful primary material production. However, displacement is governed by market forces and is not guaranteed; if full displacement does not occur, the environmental benefits of recycling are reduced or eliminated. Therefore, quantifying the true “displacement rate” caused by recycling is essential to accurately assess environmental …
Are Recoveries all the Same
Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L‐shaped’ or ‘U‐shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U‐shaped recovery for postwar NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U‐shaped but more recent recessions have been L‐shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relati…
Recessions, Recoveries, and Leverage
When leverage is low, recoveries from recessions are likely to eventually return the economy to its pre‐recession growth path. When leverage is high, recoveries are likely to leave the economy below its pre‐recession growth path. In other words, low‐leverage recessions are likely to be U‐shaped, whereas high‐leverage recessions are likely to be L‐shaped. The increase in leverage over the postwar period indicates that recent recessions are much mo…
Economics (9 works) · Econometrics (6 works) · Mathematics (5 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (5 works) · Statistics (4 works) · Computer Science (3 works) · Environmental Impact and Sustainability (3 works) · Microeconomics (3 works) · Sociology (3 works) · Demographic economics (2 works)