Are Recoveries all the Same
GDP and TFP
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21512707 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sui Luo (International School of Economics and Management Capital University of Economics and Business Beijing China, corresponding author), Yu‐fan Huang (0000-0002-6374-044X, Capital University of Economics and Business, corresponding author), Yufan Huang (0000-0002-7186-4071, International School of Economics and Management Capital University of Economics and Business Beijing China), Richard Startz (0000-0001-5162-2545, Department of Economics University of California Santa Barbara California USA, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 83 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 1111-1129 |
| Publication date | 2021-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0305-9049 • E-ISSN: 1468-0084 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/obes.12439 |
| OpenAlex | W3156270880 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 19 |
Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L‐shaped’ or ‘U‐shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U‐shaped recovery for postwar NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U‐shaped but more recent recessions have been L‐shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relatively well by durable consumption, investment, labour hours and employment. Posterior probabilities for the shape of recoveries for nondurable consumption and participation rate are less decisive. However, total factor productivity appears to recover rapidly after all recessions
Econometrics · Economics · Keynesian economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Productivity · Recession · Total factor productivity · Economic Growth and Productivity · Economic Theory and Policy · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’
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| Citations per year | 0.75 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2025 (4) |
| Highly cited | No |