Adam J L Harris
Biographic Data
| ID | 5996869 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Adam J L Harris |
| GIVEN NAMES | Adam J L |
| FAMILY NAME | Harris |
| SIGNATURE | HARRIS A J L |
| AFFILIATIONS | University College London |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9041-6290 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 25 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 13 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 25 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1984 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Anchoring the anchor: Judgments of both items assimilate in item-based anchoring
Anchoring is a prominent judgment bias which causes people's estimates of uncertain quantities to assimilate towards recently encountered values. Here, we ask whether items can cause anchoring - will the question "Does a handheld flashlight torch cost more or less than a laptop?" induce anchoring in the same way as "Does a handheld flashlight torch cost more or less than £500"? We present evidence from ten studies suggesting that it can, and that…
Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has called for more meaningful warnings to help reduce the impacts of weather-related events. Impact-based forecasts and warnings (IBFW) are being developed by forecasting agencies globally to meet this call. However, there are many challenges facing those implementing such systems. The WMO World Weather Research Programme High Impact Weather project sought to understand the future direction of research…
Decision making under extinction risk
In everyday life, people routinely make decisions that involve irredeemable risks such as death (e.g., while driving). Even though these decisions under extinction risk are common, practically important, and have different properties compared to the types of decisions typically studied by decision scientists, they have received little research attention. The present work advances the formal understanding of decision making under extinction risk b…
From preference shifts to information leaks: Examining Individuals' sensitivity to information leakage in the framing effect
The framing effect is a highly robust phenomenon, wherein logically equivalent options (e.g., 90 % chance of winning vs. 10 % chance of losing) trigger different preferences. The Information Leakage account provides a rational interpretation of this effect by suggesting that choice of frame 'leaks' information to decision-makers, making the frames informationally non-equivalent. For example, decision-makers might interpret a positive frame (e.g.,…
Judgment and decision strategies used by weather scientists in southeast Asia to classify impact severity
Subjective Probability Increases Across Communication Chains: Introducing the Probability Escalation Effect
A severity effect has previously been documented, whereby numerical translations of verbal probability expressions are higher for severe outcomes than for non-severe outcomes. Recent work has additionally shown the same effect in the opposite direction (translating numerical probabilities into words). Here, we aimed to test whether these effects lead to an escalation of subjective probabilities across a communication chain. In four ‘communication…
Investigating (sequential) unit asking: An unsuccessful quest for scope sensitivity in willingness to donate judgments
People exhibit scope insensitivity: Their expressed valuation of a problem is not proportionate with its scope or size. To address scope insensitivity in charitable giving, Hsee et al. (2013) developed the (Classical) Unit Asking technique, where people are first asked how much they are willing to donate to support a single individual, followed by how much they are willing to donate to support a group of individuals. In this paper, we explored th…
No evidence for nudging after adjusting for publication bias
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans the biological, physical, and social sciences.
Impact-based forecasting in South East Asia – What underlies impact perceptions
The move towards impact-based forecasting presents a challenge for forecasters, who must combine information not just on what the weather might be, but also on what the weather might do. Yet different hazards and impacts are qualitatively distinct, meaning such information cannot be easily or straightforwardly integrated. The present study aimed to provide a way of characterising seemingly disparate impacts. In a collaboration between UK psycholo…
Investigating the decision thresholds for impact-based warnings in South East Asia
The move towards impact-based forecasting presents a challenge for forecasters, who must combine information not just on what the weather might be, but also on what the weather might do. Such forecasts require an integration of both likelihood and impact severity information to issue a particular weather warning. The current pre-registered study focusses on forecasters' and stakeholders’ thresholds for determining the level of impact-based warnin…
Optimism where there is none: Asymmetric belief updating observed with valence-neutral life events
Plausibility matters: A challenge to Gilbert's “Spinozan” account of belief formation
Maintaining credibility when communicating uncertainty: The role of directionality
Risk communicators often need to communicate probabilistic predictions. On occasion, an event with 10% likelihood will occur, or one with 90% likelihood will not – a probabilistically unexpected outcome. Previous research manipulating communication format has found that communicators lose more credibility and are perceived as less correct if an “unlikely” event occurs than if a “10–30% likelihood” event occurs. We suggest “directionality–outcome …
Testing the adaptability of people's use of attribute frame information
What drives risk perceptions? Revisiting public perceptions of food hazards associated with production and consumption
As food technology continues to advance, the potential for new food products to enter the food market grows, attracting considerable media interest. Whilst previous research has explored public perceptions of food-related hazards, much of this took place over 10 years ago. Continued technological developments have yielded new food products, for which there is no extant research on public perceptions. In light of this, there is a pressing need to …
The potential power of experience in communications of expert consensus levels
Understanding the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change has been dubbed a ‘gateway belief’ to engaging people in sustainable behaviour. We consider the question of how the impact of a consensus communication can be maximised. Firstly, the credibility of the communicator should be maximised. One way of achieving this is to present the opinions of a sample of scientists directly to individuals. The decision-making literature suggests…
When unlikely outcomes occur: The role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility
The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%), according to a frequentist perspective. When an ‘unlikely’ outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed ‘erroneous’, re…
Robust, domain‐specific effects of prior context in risk preferences for pension choice
Evidence that context changes measured risk preferences raises concerns about the practice of measuring financial risk attitude in one context to guide investment choice. We found that participants who first made choices between pairs of high (low) risk pension funds subsequently preferred higher (lower) risk funds when offered a choice from a wider range of funds. This effect was also observed when the riskiness of the initial pension funds was …
Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes: The Robustness of the Extremity Effect
Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats (‘unlikely [0–33%]’) have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications. Research using the new ‘which outcome’ approach to investigate understanding of verbal probability expressions suggests, however, that mixed formats might convey disadvantages compared with purely numerical communications. When asked to indicate an outcome that is ‘unlikely’, par…
Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention
How many laypeople holding a popular opinion are needed to counter an expert opinion
In everyday situations, people regularly receive information from large groups of (lay) people and from single experts. Although lay opinions and expert opinions have been studied extensively in isolation, the present study examined the relationship between the two by asking how many laypeople are needed to counter an expert opinion. A Bayesian formalisation allowed the prescription of this quantity. Participants were subsequently asked to assess…
The average laboratory samples a population of 7,300 Amazon Mechanical Turk workers
Using capture-recapture analysis we estimate the effective size of the active Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) population that a typical laboratory can access to be about 7,300 workers. We also estimate that the time taken for half of the workers to leave the MTurk pool and be replaced is about 7 months. Each laboratory has its own population pool which overlaps, often extensively, with the hundreds of other laboratories using MTurk. Our estimate i…
Rational argument, rational inference
Reasoning researchers within cognitive psychology have spent decades examining the extent to which human inference measures up to normative standards. Work here has been dominated by logic, but logic has little to say about most everyday, informal arguments. Empirical work on argumentation within psychology and education has studied the development and improvement of argumentation skills, but has been theoretically limited to broad structural cha…
The illusion of control: A Bayesian perspective
Attitudes about Death, Dying, and Terminal Care: Differences among Groups at a University Teaching Hospital
Attitudes of eight hospital groups on several aspects of terminal care were studied by means of a questionnaire responded to by 1080 people at a university teaching hospital. The questionnaire contained statements about terminally ill patients, settings for their care, terminally ill children, discussing death and terminal care, and meeting the emotional needs of patients. Responses of the groups, which included physicians, residents, nurses, aid…
Robust, domain‐specific effects of prior context in risk preferences for pension choice
Evidence that context changes measured risk preferences raises concerns about the practice of measuring financial risk attitude in one context to guide investment choice. We found that participants who first made choices between pairs of high (low) risk pension funds subsequently preferred higher (lower) risk funds when offered a choice from a wider range of funds. This effect was also observed when the riskiness of the initial pension funds was …
Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes: The Robustness of the Extremity Effect
Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats (‘unlikely [0–33%]’) have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications. Research using the new ‘which outcome’ approach to investigate understanding of verbal probability expressions suggests, however, that mixed formats might convey disadvantages compared with purely numerical communications. When asked to indicate an outcome that is ‘unlikely’, par…
What drives risk perceptions? Revisiting public perceptions of food hazards associated with production and consumption
As food technology continues to advance, the potential for new food products to enter the food market grows, attracting considerable media interest. Whilst previous research has explored public perceptions of food-related hazards, much of this took place over 10 years ago. Continued technological developments have yielded new food products, for which there is no extant research on public perceptions. In light of this, there is a pressing need to …
The potential power of experience in communications of expert consensus levels
Understanding the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change has been dubbed a ‘gateway belief’ to engaging people in sustainable behaviour. We consider the question of how the impact of a consensus communication can be maximised. Firstly, the credibility of the communicator should be maximised. One way of achieving this is to present the opinions of a sample of scientists directly to individuals. The decision-making literature suggests…
The illusion of control: A Bayesian perspective
When unlikely outcomes occur: The role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility
The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%), according to a frequentist perspective. When an ‘unlikely’ outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed ‘erroneous’, re…
Attitudes about Death, Dying, and Terminal Care: Differences among Groups at a University Teaching Hospital
Attitudes of eight hospital groups on several aspects of terminal care were studied by means of a questionnaire responded to by 1080 people at a university teaching hospital. The questionnaire contained statements about terminally ill patients, settings for their care, terminally ill children, discussing death and terminal care, and meeting the emotional needs of patients. Responses of the groups, which included physicians, residents, nurses, aid…
The illusion of control: A Bayesian perspective
Rational argument, rational inference
Reasoning researchers within cognitive psychology have spent decades examining the extent to which human inference measures up to normative standards. Work here has been dominated by logic, but logic has little to say about most everyday, informal arguments. Empirical work on argumentation within psychology and education has studied the development and improvement of argumentation skills, but has been theoretically limited to broad structural cha…
The average laboratory samples a population of 7,300 Amazon Mechanical Turk workers
Using capture-recapture analysis we estimate the effective size of the active Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) population that a typical laboratory can access to be about 7,300 workers. We also estimate that the time taken for half of the workers to leave the MTurk pool and be replaced is about 7 months. Each laboratory has its own population pool which overlaps, often extensively, with the hundreds of other laboratories using MTurk. Our estimate i…
Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention
How many laypeople holding a popular opinion are needed to counter an expert opinion
In everyday situations, people regularly receive information from large groups of (lay) people and from single experts. Although lay opinions and expert opinions have been studied extensively in isolation, the present study examined the relationship between the two by asking how many laypeople are needed to counter an expert opinion. A Bayesian formalisation allowed the prescription of this quantity. Participants were subsequently asked to assess…
The potential power of experience in communications of expert consensus levels
Understanding the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change has been dubbed a ‘gateway belief’ to engaging people in sustainable behaviour. We consider the question of how the impact of a consensus communication can be maximised. Firstly, the credibility of the communicator should be maximised. One way of achieving this is to present the opinions of a sample of scientists directly to individuals. The decision-making literature suggests…
When unlikely outcomes occur: The role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility
The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%), according to a frequentist perspective. When an ‘unlikely’ outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed ‘erroneous’, re…
Robust, domain‐specific effects of prior context in risk preferences for pension choice
Evidence that context changes measured risk preferences raises concerns about the practice of measuring financial risk attitude in one context to guide investment choice. We found that participants who first made choices between pairs of high (low) risk pension funds subsequently preferred higher (lower) risk funds when offered a choice from a wider range of funds. This effect was also observed when the riskiness of the initial pension funds was …
Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes: The Robustness of the Extremity Effect
Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats (‘unlikely [0–33%]’) have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications. Research using the new ‘which outcome’ approach to investigate understanding of verbal probability expressions suggests, however, that mixed formats might convey disadvantages compared with purely numerical communications. When asked to indicate an outcome that is ‘unlikely’, par…
Maintaining credibility when communicating uncertainty: The role of directionality
Risk communicators often need to communicate probabilistic predictions. On occasion, an event with 10% likelihood will occur, or one with 90% likelihood will not – a probabilistically unexpected outcome. Previous research manipulating communication format has found that communicators lose more credibility and are perceived as less correct if an “unlikely” event occurs than if a “10–30% likelihood” event occurs. We suggest “directionality–outcome …
Testing the adaptability of people's use of attribute frame information
What drives risk perceptions? Revisiting public perceptions of food hazards associated with production and consumption
As food technology continues to advance, the potential for new food products to enter the food market grows, attracting considerable media interest. Whilst previous research has explored public perceptions of food-related hazards, much of this took place over 10 years ago. Continued technological developments have yielded new food products, for which there is no extant research on public perceptions. In light of this, there is a pressing need to …
No evidence for nudging after adjusting for publication bias
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans the biological, physical, and social sciences.
Impact-based forecasting in South East Asia – What underlies impact perceptions
The move towards impact-based forecasting presents a challenge for forecasters, who must combine information not just on what the weather might be, but also on what the weather might do. Yet different hazards and impacts are qualitatively distinct, meaning such information cannot be easily or straightforwardly integrated. The present study aimed to provide a way of characterising seemingly disparate impacts. In a collaboration between UK psycholo…
Investigating the decision thresholds for impact-based warnings in South East Asia
The move towards impact-based forecasting presents a challenge for forecasters, who must combine information not just on what the weather might be, but also on what the weather might do. Such forecasts require an integration of both likelihood and impact severity information to issue a particular weather warning. The current pre-registered study focusses on forecasters' and stakeholders’ thresholds for determining the level of impact-based warnin…
Optimism where there is none: Asymmetric belief updating observed with valence-neutral life events
Plausibility matters: A challenge to Gilbert's “Spinozan” account of belief formation
Investigating (sequential) unit asking: An unsuccessful quest for scope sensitivity in willingness to donate judgments
People exhibit scope insensitivity: Their expressed valuation of a problem is not proportionate with its scope or size. To address scope insensitivity in charitable giving, Hsee et al. (2013) developed the (Classical) Unit Asking technique, where people are first asked how much they are willing to donate to support a single individual, followed by how much they are willing to donate to support a group of individuals. In this paper, we explored th…
Judgment and decision strategies used by weather scientists in southeast Asia to classify impact severity
Subjective Probability Increases Across Communication Chains: Introducing the Probability Escalation Effect
A severity effect has previously been documented, whereby numerical translations of verbal probability expressions are higher for severe outcomes than for non-severe outcomes. Recent work has additionally shown the same effect in the opposite direction (translating numerical probabilities into words). Here, we aimed to test whether these effects lead to an escalation of subjective probabilities across a communication chain. In four ‘communication…
Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has called for more meaningful warnings to help reduce the impacts of weather-related events. Impact-based forecasts and warnings (IBFW) are being developed by forecasting agencies globally to meet this call. However, there are many challenges facing those implementing such systems. The WMO World Weather Research Programme High Impact Weather project sought to understand the future direction of research…
Decision making under extinction risk
In everyday life, people routinely make decisions that involve irredeemable risks such as death (e.g., while driving). Even though these decisions under extinction risk are common, practically important, and have different properties compared to the types of decisions typically studied by decision scientists, they have received little research attention. The present work advances the formal understanding of decision making under extinction risk b…
From preference shifts to information leaks: Examining Individuals' sensitivity to information leakage in the framing effect
The framing effect is a highly robust phenomenon, wherein logically equivalent options (e.g., 90 % chance of winning vs. 10 % chance of losing) trigger different preferences. The Information Leakage account provides a rational interpretation of this effect by suggesting that choice of frame 'leaks' information to decision-makers, making the frames informationally non-equivalent. For example, decision-makers might interpret a positive frame (e.g.,…
Anchoring the anchor: Judgments of both items assimilate in item-based anchoring
Anchoring is a prominent judgment bias which causes people's estimates of uncertain quantities to assimilate towards recently encountered values. Here, we ask whether items can cause anchoring - will the question "Does a handheld flashlight torch cost more or less than a laptop?" induce anchoring in the same way as "Does a handheld flashlight torch cost more or less than £500"? We present evidence from ten studies suggesting that it can, and that…
Psychology (18 works) · Computer Science (12 works) · Social Psychology (12 works) · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics (11 works) · Risk Perception and Management (10 works) · Cognitive psychology (9 works) · Political science (7 works) · Climate Change Communication and Perception (5 works) · Economics (5 works) · Mathematics (5 works)