Maintaining credibility when communicating uncertainty
The role of directionality
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21689151 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sarah C Jenkins (0000-0001-8400-9691, Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, UK, corresponding author), Adam J L Harris (0000-0002-9041-6290, Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, UK) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 97-123 |
| Publication date | 2021-01-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Thinking & Reasoning (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-6783 • E-ISSN: 1464-0708 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13546783.2020.1723694 |
| OpenAlex | W3005052274 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 46 |
Risk communicators often need to communicate probabilistic predictions. On occasion, an event with 10% likelihood will occur, or one with 90% likelihood will not – a probabilistically unexpected outcome. Previous research manipulating communication format has found that communicators lose more credibility and are perceived as less correct if an “unlikely” event occurs than if a “10–30% likelihood” event occurs. We suggest “directionality–outcome congruence” underlies the perception of predictions as “erroneous”. For example, the negatively directional term “unlikely” led to harsher ratings because the outcome was counter to the original focus of the prediction (on the event’s non-occurrence). In the context of both probabilistically unexpected (Experiment 1) and expected (Experiment 2) outcomes, we find that communicators are perceived as less credible and less correct given “directionality–outcome incongruence”. Communicators should thus carefully consider the directionality implicit in their risk communications to maximise communication effectiveness
Cognitive psychology · Credibility · Directionality · Econometrics · Elaboration likelihood model · Perception · Persuasion · Political science · Probabilistic logic · Source credibility · Climate Change Communication and Perception · Computer Science · Mathematics · Psychology · Public Relations and Crisis Communication · Risk Perception and Management · Social Psychology · Artificial Intelligence
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Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy
Risk, Communication and Health Psychology
Perceived certainty based on verbal probability phrases
When unlikely outcomes occur
Predicting the directionality of probability words from their membership functions
Verbal probabilities
Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes
Ambiguous probabilities
From subjective probabilities to decision weights
How Consumers are Affected by the Framing of Attribute Information Before and After Consuming the Product
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,8 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2024 (4) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |