Scott Gates
Biographic Data
| ID | 6031014 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Scott Gates |
| GIVEN NAMES | Scott |
| FAMILY NAME | Gates |
| SIGNATURE | GATES S |
| AFFILIATIONS | PRIO |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 31 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 849 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 30 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1996 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 13 |
Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty
Extant research posits that nonviolent campaigns increase security force defection during dissent, thereby improving their success rates over violent campaigns. Yet empirical evidence remains limited and mixed. We argue that this is partly due to overly aggregated measures of disloyalty that mask important variation. To address this, we disaggregate security force disloyalty both theoretically and empirically. We contend that nonviolent and viole…
Political Trust, Shocks, and Accountability: Quasi-experimental Evidence from a Rebel Attack
How does armed conflict affect accountability and political trust in democratic governments? To answer this question, we present quasi-experimental evidence based on survey data which, coincidentally, were collected in the days surrounding an unanticipated violent attack by a rebel group in Mali. The chance occurrence of the attack five days into the survey demarcates respondents into two groups surveyed before and after the attack and allows us …
Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraint: Powersharing in the World’s States, 1975–2010
Arrangements for sharing political power serve three purposes: to give all relevant groups access to important political decisions; to partition the policy process, thereby granting groups relevant autonomy; and to constrain holders of political power from abusing authority. A new global dataset of political power sharing institutions, 1975–2010, is introduced here, disaggregated these along three institutional dimensions: inclusive, dispersive, …
Membership matters: Coerced recruits and rebel allegiance
Unable to attract enough voluntary recruits, many rebel groups rely on force to fill their ranks. Given that the group used force to compel individuals to join, a coerced conscript would be presumed unlikely to be loyal and would be expected to desert at the first opportunity. Yet, groups that have relied on coerced recruitment retain their members just as well as, if not better than, rebel armies that rely on voluntary methods of recruitment. Th…
Power Sharing, Protection, and Peace
Power sharing is often purported to lead to civil peace, though its effects are disputed. We identify three types of power sharing—inclusive, dispersive, and constraining—and analyze their mechanisms of power allocation. We argue that constraining arrangements, which limit the power of a party or social group, are most likely to protect vulnerable groups. Constraining power-sharing institutions, such as guarantees of civil liberties and independe…
Power transition theory and the rise of China
Does the rise of China inexorably anticipate the onset of global instability or even a great power war? Today, routine comparisons are made between a rising China with that of Germany over 100 years ago. Organski, in his original explication of power transition theory, however, was far more cautious. Despite predicting the remarkable rise of China nearly 60 years ago in his book (1958), World Politics, Organski was circumspect in predicting a gre…
African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights
This article examines the effect of climate change on a type of armed conflict that pits pastoralists (cattle herders) against each other (range wars). Such conflicts are typically fought over water rights and/or grazing rights to unfenced/unowned land. The state is rarely involved directly. The rangeland of East Africa is a region particularly vulnerable to drought and livestock diseases associated with climate change. To analyze the possible ef…
Armed conflict and post-conflict justice, 1946-2006: A dataset
This article introduces a new dataset on post-conflict justice (PCJ) that provides an overview of if, where, and how post-conflict countries address the wrongdoings committed in association with previous armed conflict. Motivated by the literature on post-conflict peacebuilding, we study justice processes during post-conflict transitions. We examine: which countries choose to implement PCJ; where PCJ is implemented; and which measures are taken i…
Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States
Consequences of Civil Conflict
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Development Report 2011 team, the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. WDR Background Paper October 26, 2010
Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict
Why do some armed civil conflicts last longer than others? Drawing on a contest success function model, we show that geographic factors (such as location, terrain, and natural resources) interact with rebel fighting capacity and together play a crucial role in determining the duration of conflict. Using precisely dated duration data in event history models and geographic data for the conflict location, we find that conflicts located at considerab…
Post-Conflict Justice And Sustainable Peace
No systematic study has examined the effect of post-conflict justice on the duration of peace on a global basis. This paper attempts to fill that void by building on a newly constructed dataset (Binningsbo, Elster, and Gates 2005), which reports the presence of various forms of post-conflict justice efforts (trials, purges, reparation to victims, and truth commissions) as well as processes associated with abstaining from post-conflict justice (am…
Environmentalism, democracy, and pollution control
This paper makes two empirical contributions to the literature, based on predictions generated by a lobby group model. First, we investigate how environmental lobby groups affect the determination of environmental policy in rich and developing countries. Second, we explore the interaction between democratic participation and political (electoral) competition. The empirical findings suggest that environmental lobby groups tend to positively affect…
Spatial–Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal
The Maoist insurgency in Nepal is one of the highest intensity internal conflicts in recent times. Investigation into the causes of the conflict would suggest that grievance rather than greed is the main motivating force. The concept of horizontal or intergroup inequality, with both an ethnic and caste dimension, is highly relevant in explaining the Nepalese civil war. There is also a spatial aspect to the conflict, which is most intense in the m…
Book Notes
Book Notes
Book Notes
Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion
Civil war is fought between two political organizations, the state and a rebel group. Myriad theories of civil war have examined the role of state institutions and state strength, but little attention has been devoted to theorizing about rebel organizations themselves. The organizational structure of rebel groups is examined to understand patterns of recruitment and allegiance. Drawing on principal-agent analysis of participation and incentive co…
The Geography of Civil War
Geographical factors play a critical role in determining how a civil war is fought and who will prevail. Drawing on the PRIO/Uppsala Armed Conflict dataset covering the period 1946-2000, the authors have determined the location of all battle-zones for all civil wars in this time period, thereby identifying the geographic extent and the center point of each conflict. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimatio…
Book Notes
Book Notes
Book Notes
Book Notes
Book Notes
Evolution in Democracy-War Dynamics
This article explores the evolutionary and endogenous relationship between democracy and war at the system level. Building on Kant, the authors argue that the rules and norms of behavior within and between democracies become more prevalent in international relations as the number of democracies in the system increases. The authors use Kalman filter analysis, which allows for the parameters in the models to vary over time. The results support the …
Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion
Civil war is fought between two political organizations, the state and a rebel group. Myriad theories of civil war have examined the role of state institutions and state strength, but little attention has been devoted to theorizing about rebel organizations themselves. The organizational structure of rebel groups is examined to understand patterns of recruitment and allegiance. Drawing on principal-agent analysis of participation and incentive co…
Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict
Why do some armed civil conflicts last longer than others? Drawing on a contest success function model, we show that geographic factors (such as location, terrain, and natural resources) interact with rebel fighting capacity and together play a crucial role in determining the duration of conflict. Using precisely dated duration data in event history models and geographic data for the conflict location, we find that conflicts located at considerab…
The Geography of Civil War
Geographical factors play a critical role in determining how a civil war is fought and who will prevail. Drawing on the PRIO/Uppsala Armed Conflict dataset covering the period 1946-2000, the authors have determined the location of all battle-zones for all civil wars in this time period, thereby identifying the geographic extent and the center point of each conflict. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimatio…
Evolution in Democracy-War Dynamics
This article explores the evolutionary and endogenous relationship between democracy and war at the system level. Building on Kant, the authors argue that the rules and norms of behavior within and between democracies become more prevalent in international relations as the number of democracies in the system increases. The authors use Kalman filter analysis, which allows for the parameters in the models to vary over time. The results support the …
Timing the Changes in Political Structures: A new Polity Database
This article introduces the Polity IIId (“d” is for dates) data set. The Polity IIId project codes the precise dates of changes in political structure identified by Polity III for all independent countries in the international system from 1800 to 1994. By moving from annual measurements of authority and polity characteristics, the Polity IIId data are more appropriate for event-based analysis. The authors discuss the implications of the new data …
Power Sharing, Protection, and Peace
Power sharing is often purported to lead to civil peace, though its effects are disputed. We identify three types of power sharing—inclusive, dispersive, and constraining—and analyze their mechanisms of power allocation. We argue that constraining arrangements, which limit the power of a party or social group, are most likely to protect vulnerable groups. Constraining power-sharing institutions, such as guarantees of civil liberties and independe…
Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraint: Powersharing in the World’s States, 1975–2010
Arrangements for sharing political power serve three purposes: to give all relevant groups access to important political decisions; to partition the policy process, thereby granting groups relevant autonomy; and to constrain holders of political power from abusing authority. A new global dataset of political power sharing institutions, 1975–2010, is introduced here, disaggregated these along three institutional dimensions: inclusive, dispersive, …
Democracy and Peace: A More Skeptical View
1. The New Orthodoxy In February 1995 a small border war erupted between Peru and Ecuador. Time notes that although 'the armed clash between two democracies deep in the Amazonian jungle' may appear bizarre to outside observers, the conflict is fairly straightforward for Peruvians and Ecuadorians alike: the area has been contested for 53 years, as it is rumored to contain rich mineral deposits (1995, p. 27). What should not be surprising is that b…
Armed conflict and post-conflict justice, 1946-2006: A dataset
This article introduces a new dataset on post-conflict justice (PCJ) that provides an overview of if, where, and how post-conflict countries address the wrongdoings committed in association with previous armed conflict. Motivated by the literature on post-conflict peacebuilding, we study justice processes during post-conflict transitions. We examine: which countries choose to implement PCJ; where PCJ is implemented; and which measures are taken i…
Membership matters: Coerced recruits and rebel allegiance
Unable to attract enough voluntary recruits, many rebel groups rely on force to fill their ranks. Given that the group used force to compel individuals to join, a coerced conscript would be presumed unlikely to be loyal and would be expected to desert at the first opportunity. Yet, groups that have relied on coerced recruitment retain their members just as well as, if not better than, rebel armies that rely on voluntary methods of recruitment. Th…
Political Trust, Shocks, and Accountability: Quasi-experimental Evidence from a Rebel Attack
How does armed conflict affect accountability and political trust in democratic governments? To answer this question, we present quasi-experimental evidence based on survey data which, coincidentally, were collected in the days surrounding an unanticipated violent attack by a rebel group in Mali. The chance occurrence of the attack five days into the survey demarcates respondents into two groups surveyed before and after the attack and allows us …
Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States
African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights
This article examines the effect of climate change on a type of armed conflict that pits pastoralists (cattle herders) against each other (range wars). Such conflicts are typically fought over water rights and/or grazing rights to unfenced/unowned land. The state is rarely involved directly. The rangeland of East Africa is a region particularly vulnerable to drought and livestock diseases associated with climate change. To analyze the possible ef…
Power transition theory and the rise of China
Does the rise of China inexorably anticipate the onset of global instability or even a great power war? Today, routine comparisons are made between a rising China with that of Germany over 100 years ago. Organski, in his original explication of power transition theory, however, was far more cautious. Despite predicting the remarkable rise of China nearly 60 years ago in his book (1958), World Politics, Organski was circumspect in predicting a gre…
Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty
Extant research posits that nonviolent campaigns increase security force defection during dissent, thereby improving their success rates over violent campaigns. Yet empirical evidence remains limited and mixed. We argue that this is partly due to overly aggregated measures of disloyalty that mask important variation. To address this, we disaggregate security force disloyalty both theoretically and empirically. We contend that nonviolent and viole…
An empirical assessment of the Aids Risk Reduction Model (ARRM) employing ordered probit analyses
Democracy and Peace: A More Skeptical View
1. The New Orthodoxy In February 1995 a small border war erupted between Peru and Ecuador. Time notes that although 'the armed clash between two democracies deep in the Amazonian jungle' may appear bizarre to outside observers, the conflict is fairly straightforward for Peruvians and Ecuadorians alike: the area has been contested for 53 years, as it is rumored to contain rich mineral deposits (1995, p. 27). What should not be surprising is that b…
Working, Shirking, and Sabotage: Bureaucratic Response to a Democratic Public
Bureaucrats perform most of the tasks of government, profoundly influencing the daily lives of Americans. But who, or what, controls what bureaucrats do?John Brehm and Scott Gates examine who influences whether federal, state, and local bureaucrats work, shirk, or sabotage policy. The authors combine deductive models and computer simulations of bureaucratic behavior with statistical analysis in order to assess the competing influences over how bu…
Game Theory Topics
Book Notes
Timing the Changes in Political Structures: A new Polity Database
This article introduces the Polity IIId (“d” is for dates) data set. The Polity IIId project codes the precise dates of changes in political structure identified by Polity III for all independent countries in the international system from 1800 to 1994. By moving from annual measurements of authority and polity characteristics, the Polity IIId data are more appropriate for event-based analysis. The authors discuss the implications of the new data …
Book Notes
Book Notes
Evolution in Democracy-War Dynamics
This article explores the evolutionary and endogenous relationship between democracy and war at the system level. Building on Kant, the authors argue that the rules and norms of behavior within and between democracies become more prevalent in international relations as the number of democracies in the system increases. The authors use Kalman filter analysis, which allows for the parameters in the models to vary over time. The results support the …
Book Notes
Book Notes
Book Notes
Book Notes
Book Notes
Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion
Civil war is fought between two political organizations, the state and a rebel group. Myriad theories of civil war have examined the role of state institutions and state strength, but little attention has been devoted to theorizing about rebel organizations themselves. The organizational structure of rebel groups is examined to understand patterns of recruitment and allegiance. Drawing on principal-agent analysis of participation and incentive co…
The Geography of Civil War
Geographical factors play a critical role in determining how a civil war is fought and who will prevail. Drawing on the PRIO/Uppsala Armed Conflict dataset covering the period 1946-2000, the authors have determined the location of all battle-zones for all civil wars in this time period, thereby identifying the geographic extent and the center point of each conflict. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimatio…
Book Notes
Environmentalism, democracy, and pollution control
This paper makes two empirical contributions to the literature, based on predictions generated by a lobby group model. First, we investigate how environmental lobby groups affect the determination of environmental policy in rich and developing countries. Second, we explore the interaction between democratic participation and political (electoral) competition. The empirical findings suggest that environmental lobby groups tend to positively affect…
Spatial–Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal
The Maoist insurgency in Nepal is one of the highest intensity internal conflicts in recent times. Investigation into the causes of the conflict would suggest that grievance rather than greed is the main motivating force. The concept of horizontal or intergroup inequality, with both an ethnic and caste dimension, is highly relevant in explaining the Nepalese civil war. There is also a spatial aspect to the conflict, which is most intense in the m…
Post-Conflict Justice And Sustainable Peace
No systematic study has examined the effect of post-conflict justice on the duration of peace on a global basis. This paper attempts to fill that void by building on a newly constructed dataset (Binningsbo, Elster, and Gates 2005), which reports the presence of various forms of post-conflict justice efforts (trials, purges, reparation to victims, and truth commissions) as well as processes associated with abstaining from post-conflict justice (am…
Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict
Why do some armed civil conflicts last longer than others? Drawing on a contest success function model, we show that geographic factors (such as location, terrain, and natural resources) interact with rebel fighting capacity and together play a crucial role in determining the duration of conflict. Using precisely dated duration data in event history models and geographic data for the conflict location, we find that conflicts located at considerab…
Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States
Consequences of Civil Conflict
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Development Report 2011 team, the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. WDR Background Paper October 26, 2010
African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights
This article examines the effect of climate change on a type of armed conflict that pits pastoralists (cattle herders) against each other (range wars). Such conflicts are typically fought over water rights and/or grazing rights to unfenced/unowned land. The state is rarely involved directly. The rangeland of East Africa is a region particularly vulnerable to drought and livestock diseases associated with climate change. To analyze the possible ef…
Armed conflict and post-conflict justice, 1946-2006: A dataset
This article introduces a new dataset on post-conflict justice (PCJ) that provides an overview of if, where, and how post-conflict countries address the wrongdoings committed in association with previous armed conflict. Motivated by the literature on post-conflict peacebuilding, we study justice processes during post-conflict transitions. We examine: which countries choose to implement PCJ; where PCJ is implemented; and which measures are taken i…
Law (17 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (17 works) · Political science (17 works) · Computer Science (16 works) · Psychology (13 works) · Economics (12 works) · Politics (12 works) · Sociology (12 works) · Political economy (11 works) · Law (9 works)