Noah S Diffenbaugh
Biographic Data
| ID | 6569083 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Noah S Diffenbaugh |
| GIVEN NAMES | Noah S |
| FAMILY NAME | Diffenbaugh |
| SIGNATURE | DIFFENBAUGH N S |
| AFFILIATIONS | Stanford University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8856-4964 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 23 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 12 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 23 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2008 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Increasing tropical cyclone rainfall and landslide risk in Southern California
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Compound climate hazards, such as co-occurring temperature and precipitation extremes, substantially impact people and ecosystems. Internal climate variability combines with the forced global warming response to determine both the magnitude and spatial distribution of these events, and their consequences can propagate from one country to another via many pathways. We examine how exposure to compound climate hazards in one country is transmitted i…
Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached
The importance of climate change for driving adverse climate impacts has motivated substantial effort to understand the rate and magnitude of regional climate change in different parts of the world. However, despite decades of research, there is substantial uncertainty in the time remaining until specific regional temperature thresholds are reached, with climate models often disagreeing both on the warming that has occurred to-date, as well as th…
Subnational biodiversity reporting metrics for mountain ecosystems
Biodiversity indicators are used to assess progress towards conservation and sustainability goals. However, the spatial scales, methods and assumptions of the underlying reporting metrics can affect the provided information. Using mountain ecosystems as an example, we compare biodiversity protection at subnational scale using the site-based approach of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (SDG indicator 15.4.1) with an area-based approach …
On the impossibility of extreme event thresholds in the absence of global warming
The exceptional severity of recent climate extremes has raised the question of whether some events would have been impossible in the absence of global warming. This question is critical for climate adaptation, but is challenging to answer given the length and non-stationarity of the observational record. The large single-model ensemble climate simulations archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) offer a unique opportunity to …
Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses
Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers—present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed an…
Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change
The emerging field of extreme-event attribution (EEA) seeks to answer the question: “Has climate change influenced the frequency, likelihood, and/or severity of individual extreme events?” Methodological advances over the past 15 years have transformed what was once an unanswerable hypothetical into a tractable scientific question—and for certain types of extreme events, the influence of anthropogenic climate change has emerged beyond a reasonabl…
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California
California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in …
Global warming has increased global economic inequality
Significance We find that global warming has very likely exacerbated global economic inequality, including ∼25% increase in population-weighted between-country inequality over the past half century. This increase results from the impact of warming on annual economic growth, which over the course of decades has accumulated robust and substantial declines in economic output in hotter, poorer countries—and increases in many cooler, wealthier countri…
Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States
Water is needed for hydroelectric generation and to cool thermoelectric power plants. This dependence on water makes electricity generation vulnerable to droughts. Furthermore, because power sector CO 2 emissions amount to approximately one third of total US emissions, droughts could influence the interannual variability of state-and national-scale emissions. However, the magnitude of drought-induced changes in power sector emissions is not well …
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes
Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of populat…
Dislocated interests and climate change
The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009 ) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast A…
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
Significance California ranks first in the United States in population, economic activity, and agricultural value. The state is currently experiencing a record-setting drought, which has led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Our analyses show that California has historically been more likely to experience drought if precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and that …
The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future
Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water av…
Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions
International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO _2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO _2 emissions of…
Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility
Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol ind…
Response of air stagnation frequency to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing
Stagnant atmospheric conditions can lead to hazardous air quality by allowing ozone and particulate matter to accumulate and persist in the near-surface environment. By changing atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, global warming could alter the meteorological factors that regulate air stagnation frequency. We analyze the response of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Air Stagnation Index (ASI) to anthropogenically enhanced r…
Human well-being, the global emissions debt, and climate change commitment
Climate adaptation wedges
Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'ad…
Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania
Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries
Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-cl…
Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management
It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model, we project potenti…
Protecting climate with forests
Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors, such as reflectivity, evaporation, and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does, and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects—avoided deforestation, fores…
Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management
It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model, we project potenti…
Protecting climate with forests
Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors, such as reflectivity, evaporation, and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does, and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects—avoided deforestation, fores…
Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries
Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-cl…
Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania
Climate adaptation wedges
Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'ad…
Response of air stagnation frequency to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing
Stagnant atmospheric conditions can lead to hazardous air quality by allowing ozone and particulate matter to accumulate and persist in the near-surface environment. By changing atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, global warming could alter the meteorological factors that regulate air stagnation frequency. We analyze the response of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Air Stagnation Index (ASI) to anthropogenically enhanced r…
Human well-being, the global emissions debt, and climate change commitment
Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility
Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol ind…
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
Significance California ranks first in the United States in population, economic activity, and agricultural value. The state is currently experiencing a record-setting drought, which has led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Our analyses show that California has historically been more likely to experience drought if precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and that …
The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future
Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water av…
Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions
International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO _2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO _2 emissions of…
Dislocated interests and climate change
The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009 ) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast A…
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes
Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of populat…
Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States
Water is needed for hydroelectric generation and to cool thermoelectric power plants. This dependence on water makes electricity generation vulnerable to droughts. Furthermore, because power sector CO 2 emissions amount to approximately one third of total US emissions, droughts could influence the interannual variability of state-and national-scale emissions. However, the magnitude of drought-induced changes in power sector emissions is not well …
Global warming has increased global economic inequality
Significance We find that global warming has very likely exacerbated global economic inequality, including ∼25% increase in population-weighted between-country inequality over the past half century. This increase results from the impact of warming on annual economic growth, which over the course of decades has accumulated robust and substantial declines in economic output in hotter, poorer countries—and increases in many cooler, wealthier countri…
Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change
The emerging field of extreme-event attribution (EEA) seeks to answer the question: “Has climate change influenced the frequency, likelihood, and/or severity of individual extreme events?” Methodological advances over the past 15 years have transformed what was once an unanswerable hypothetical into a tractable scientific question—and for certain types of extreme events, the influence of anthropogenic climate change has emerged beyond a reasonabl…
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California
California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in …
On the impossibility of extreme event thresholds in the absence of global warming
The exceptional severity of recent climate extremes has raised the question of whether some events would have been impossible in the absence of global warming. This question is critical for climate adaptation, but is challenging to answer given the length and non-stationarity of the observational record. The large single-model ensemble climate simulations archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) offer a unique opportunity to …
Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses
Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers—present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed an…
Subnational biodiversity reporting metrics for mountain ecosystems
Biodiversity indicators are used to assess progress towards conservation and sustainability goals. However, the spatial scales, methods and assumptions of the underlying reporting metrics can affect the provided information. Using mountain ecosystems as an example, we compare biodiversity protection at subnational scale using the site-based approach of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (SDG indicator 15.4.1) with an area-based approach …
Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached
The importance of climate change for driving adverse climate impacts has motivated substantial effort to understand the rate and magnitude of regional climate change in different parts of the world. However, despite decades of research, there is substantial uncertainty in the time remaining until specific regional temperature thresholds are reached, with climate models often disagreeing both on the warming that has occurred to-date, as well as th…
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Compound climate hazards, such as co-occurring temperature and precipitation extremes, substantially impact people and ecosystems. Internal climate variability combines with the forced global warming response to determine both the magnitude and spatial distribution of these events, and their consequences can propagate from one country to another via many pathways. We examine how exposure to compound climate hazards in one country is transmitted i…
Increasing tropical cyclone rainfall and landslide risk in Southern California
Climate change (21 works) · Environmental Science (20 works) · Geography (18 works) · Global warming (13 works) · Climatology (12 works) · Ecology (10 works) · Geology (10 works) · Climate variability and models (8 works) · Economics (7 works) · Natural resource economics (7 works)