Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544203 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Anna LoPresti (0000-0003-4801-1529, University of California, Irvine, corresponding author), Allison Charland, Dawn Woodard (0000-0002-0468-4660, University of California, Irvine), James Randerson, James T Randerson (0000-0001-6559-7387, University of California, Irvine), Noah S Diffenbaugh (0000-0002-8856-4964), Steven J Davis (0000-0002-9338-0844, University of California, Irvine) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 095001-095001 |
| Publication date | 2015-08-28 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095001 |
| OpenAlex | W1474445628 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 52 |
International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO _2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO _2 emissions of 4620 Gt CO _2 (reached in 2100 in RCP4.5 and 2057 in RCP8.5) produce globally averaged warming rates that are nearly twice as fast in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (0.34 ± 0.08 °C per decade versus 0.19 ± 0.05 °C per decade, respectively). Similarly, the globally averaged velocity of climate change calculated according to the ‘nearest equivalent climate’ is greater by a factor of ∼2 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 (2.51 ± 0.67 km yr ^−1 versus 1.32 ± 0.39 km yr ^−1 , respectively), despite equivalent cumulative emissions. These differences in the projected velocity of climate change represent uncertainty for ecosystems that may be unable to adapt to the faster changes. Particularly at risk are boreal forests, of which 48% are projected to experience rates of change beyond their expected adaptive capacity (i.e. >0.3 °C per decade) in RCP4.5, compared with 95% in RCP8.5. Thus, the same budget of cumulative carbon emissions may result in critically different impacts on natural and human systems, depending on the amount of time over which that budget is expended
Atmospheric sciences · Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Cumulative effects · Ecosystem · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Limiting · Representative Concentration Pathways · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Ecology · Geology
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Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere
More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue
Reply to comment on ‘Does replacing coal with wood lower CO 2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy’
Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets
Rethinking adaptation for a 4 ° C world
The velocity of climate change
Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions
Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas
Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species
Adapting agriculture to climate change
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
The representative concentration pathways
The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions
Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World
Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
Another reason for concern
Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability
Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change
| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,45 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2018 (4) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |