Hayley J Fowler
Biographic Data
| ID | 6569422 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Hayley J Fowler |
| GIVEN NAMES | Hayley J |
| FAMILY NAME | Fowler |
| SIGNATURE | FOWLER H J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Newcastle University |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8848-3606 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 16 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 16 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Urban flood risk management through the lens of citizen science: A case study on the two city corporations’ area of Dhaka
Dhaka is one of the most densely populated cities in South Asia. In recent times, prolonged urban flooding/water logging is a recurring phenomenon and major concern in the two city corporations' areas. This study investigates how “citizen science” could help individuals, communities, and stakeholders to understand and manage the risk of current and future urban flooding, by integrating people's experience, concerns, and opinions on flood risk man…
Dynamical adjustment reveals spatial patterns of wetting and drying in European winter precipitation
Although precipitation increases have been observed in different areas of the globe and at various temporal resolutions, changes in precipitation can be difficult to detect and attribute to anthropogenic forcing in observational records due to the significant influence of natural variability. Here, we quantify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability on total winter precipitation for Europe using dynamical adjustment with …
Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies
Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model …
Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties
Contrasting future lightning stories across Europe
Thunderstorms are the most common source of hazardous weather at local scales, but are poorly represented in conventional climate models, resulting in high uncertainty in future changes. How these changes manifest in terms of lightning is even more uncertain, with previous studies giving conflicting projections. Here, for the first time, we use a km-scale model that explicitly resolves convection across Europe; suggesting more convection by 2100 …
Toward a definition of Essential Mountain Climate Variables
The numerous processes implicated in the rapid and profound climate-driven changes that are underway across the world's mountains must be well monitored, understood, and - as far as possible - accurately projected. However, not only are the available environmental data upon which such activities hinge often severely limited, but interdisciplinary consensus regarding which variables should be considered observation priorities also remains elusive.…
Use of radar data for characterizing extreme precipitation at fine scales and short durations
Extreme precipitation is one of the most devastating forms of atmospheric phenomenon, causing severe damage worldwide, and is likely to intensify in strength and occurrence in a warming climate. This contribution gives an overview of the potential and challenges associated with using weather radar data to investigate extreme precipitation. We illustrate this by presenting radar data sets for Germany, the U.S. and the UK that resolve small-scale h…
On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales
While there are obstacles to the exchange of long-term high temporal resolution precipitation data, there have been fewer barriers to the exchange of so-called 'indices'. These are derived from daily and sub-daily data and measure aspects of precipitation frequency, duration and intensity that could be used for the study of extremes. This paper outlines the history of the rationale and use of these indices, the types of indices that are frequentl…
Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model
Changes in sub-daily precipitation extremes potentially lead to large impacts of climate change due to their influence on soil erosion, landslides, and flooding. However, these changes are still rather uncertain, with only limited high-resolution results available and a lack of fundamental knowledge on the processes leading to sub-daily extremes. Here, we study the response of hourly extremes in a convection-permitting regional climate model (CPR…
Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly appar…
The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a high-resolution convective permitting model
Flash flooding is often caused by sub-hourly rainfall extremes. Here, we examine southern UK sub-hourly 10 min rainfall from Met Office state-of-the-art convective-permitting model simulations for the present and future climate. Observational studies have shown that the duration of rainfall can decrease with temperature in summer in some regions. The duration decrease coincides with an intensification of sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This suggest…
Temperature influences on intense UK hourly precipitation and dependency on large-scale circulation
Short periods of intense rainfall may be associated with significant impacts on society, particularly urban flooding. Climate model projections have suggested an intensification of precipitation under scenarios of climate change. This is in accordance with the hypothesis that precipitation intensities will increase with temperature according to the thermodynamic Clausius–Clapyeron (CC) relation (a rate of ∼6–7% °C ^−1 )—a warmer atmosphere being …
Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall: Future Intensity of Sub-Daily Rainfall
Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates that the greatest increases are likely to occur in short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines the evidence for subdaily extreme rainfall intensification due to anthropogenic climate change and desc…
Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models
Summer (June–July–August; JJA) UK precipitation extremes projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform ( $\approx 10\%$ ) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (≦̸5 years) events but strong increases in long ret…
Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity in the Upper Indus Basin to Interannual Climate Variability and Potential Change Using Modis Satellite Data Products
The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) covers an area of more than 200,000 km2 and has an elevation range from below 1000 to over 8000 m above sea level. Its water resources underpin Pakistan's food security and energy supply. Vertical and horizontal variations in key climate variables govern the runoff contributions of the UIB's various elevation zones and subcatchments. Remote sensing climatic data products from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrom…
Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector
Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity in the Upper Indus Basin to Interannual Climate Variability and Potential Change Using Modis Satellite Data Products
The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) covers an area of more than 200,000 km2 and has an elevation range from below 1000 to over 8000 m above sea level. Its water resources underpin Pakistan's food security and energy supply. Vertical and horizontal variations in key climate variables govern the runoff contributions of the UIB's various elevation zones and subcatchments. Remote sensing climatic data products from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrom…
Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector
Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall: Future Intensity of Sub-Daily Rainfall
Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates that the greatest increases are likely to occur in short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines the evidence for subdaily extreme rainfall intensification due to anthropogenic climate change and desc…
Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models
Summer (June–July–August; JJA) UK precipitation extremes projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform ( $\approx 10\%$ ) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (≦̸5 years) events but strong increases in long ret…
Temperature influences on intense UK hourly precipitation and dependency on large-scale circulation
Short periods of intense rainfall may be associated with significant impacts on society, particularly urban flooding. Climate model projections have suggested an intensification of precipitation under scenarios of climate change. This is in accordance with the hypothesis that precipitation intensities will increase with temperature according to the thermodynamic Clausius–Clapyeron (CC) relation (a rate of ∼6–7% °C ^−1 )—a warmer atmosphere being …
The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a high-resolution convective permitting model
Flash flooding is often caused by sub-hourly rainfall extremes. Here, we examine southern UK sub-hourly 10 min rainfall from Met Office state-of-the-art convective-permitting model simulations for the present and future climate. Observational studies have shown that the duration of rainfall can decrease with temperature in summer in some regions. The duration decrease coincides with an intensification of sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This suggest…
Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly appar…
On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales
While there are obstacles to the exchange of long-term high temporal resolution precipitation data, there have been fewer barriers to the exchange of so-called 'indices'. These are derived from daily and sub-daily data and measure aspects of precipitation frequency, duration and intensity that could be used for the study of extremes. This paper outlines the history of the rationale and use of these indices, the types of indices that are frequentl…
Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model
Changes in sub-daily precipitation extremes potentially lead to large impacts of climate change due to their influence on soil erosion, landslides, and flooding. However, these changes are still rather uncertain, with only limited high-resolution results available and a lack of fundamental knowledge on the processes leading to sub-daily extremes. Here, we study the response of hourly extremes in a convection-permitting regional climate model (CPR…
Use of radar data for characterizing extreme precipitation at fine scales and short durations
Extreme precipitation is one of the most devastating forms of atmospheric phenomenon, causing severe damage worldwide, and is likely to intensify in strength and occurrence in a warming climate. This contribution gives an overview of the potential and challenges associated with using weather radar data to investigate extreme precipitation. We illustrate this by presenting radar data sets for Germany, the U.S. and the UK that resolve small-scale h…
Toward a definition of Essential Mountain Climate Variables
The numerous processes implicated in the rapid and profound climate-driven changes that are underway across the world's mountains must be well monitored, understood, and - as far as possible - accurately projected. However, not only are the available environmental data upon which such activities hinge often severely limited, but interdisciplinary consensus regarding which variables should be considered observation priorities also remains elusive.…
Contrasting future lightning stories across Europe
Thunderstorms are the most common source of hazardous weather at local scales, but are poorly represented in conventional climate models, resulting in high uncertainty in future changes. How these changes manifest in terms of lightning is even more uncertain, with previous studies giving conflicting projections. Here, for the first time, we use a km-scale model that explicitly resolves convection across Europe; suggesting more convection by 2100 …
Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties
Urban flood risk management through the lens of citizen science: A case study on the two city corporations’ area of Dhaka
Dhaka is one of the most densely populated cities in South Asia. In recent times, prolonged urban flooding/water logging is a recurring phenomenon and major concern in the two city corporations' areas. This study investigates how “citizen science” could help individuals, communities, and stakeholders to understand and manage the risk of current and future urban flooding, by integrating people's experience, concerns, and opinions on flood risk man…
Dynamical adjustment reveals spatial patterns of wetting and drying in European winter precipitation
Although precipitation increases have been observed in different areas of the globe and at various temporal resolutions, changes in precipitation can be difficult to detect and attribute to anthropogenic forcing in observational records due to the significant influence of natural variability. Here, we quantify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability on total winter precipitation for Europe using dynamical adjustment with …
Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies
Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model …
Geography (14 works) · Climate variability and models (12 works) · Environmental Science (12 works) · Climate change (11 works) · Climatology (9 works) · Geology (9 works) · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations (9 works) · Meteorology (9 works) · Precipitation (8 works) · Atmospheric sciences (6 works)