Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models

Bibliographic Data

ID15546148
AuthorsS C Chan (Newcastle University, corresponding author), E Kendon (Met Office), E J Kendon, Hayley J Fowler (0000-0001-8848-3606, Newcastle University), Stephen Blenkinsop (0000-0003-0790-6545, Newcastle University), N M Roberts (Met Office)
Year2014
Volume9
Issue8
Pages084019-084019
Publication date2014-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084019
OpenAlexW2137353398
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited31

Summer (June–July–August; JJA) UK precipitation extremes projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform ( $\approx 10\%$ ) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (≦̸5 years) events but strong increases in long return period (⩾20 years) events. We have low physical and statistical confidence in the 12 km RCM projections for longer return periods. Both models show evidence for longer dry periods between events. In winter (December–January–February; DJF), the models show larger return level increases (⩾40%). Both DJF projections are consistent with results from previous work based on coarser resolution models

Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Geography · High resolution · Meteorology · Precipitation · Range (aeronautics · Remote sensing · Return period · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Geology

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