Wim Thiery
Biographic Data
| ID | 6570189 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Wim Thiery |
| GIVEN NAMES | Wim |
| FAMILY NAME | Thiery |
| SIGNATURE | THIERY W |
| AFFILIATIONS | Vrije Universiteit Brussel |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5183-6145 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 22 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 4 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 22 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2016 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa
During the last decade, the Horn of Africa has experienced an unexpected surge in urban malaria cases, with annual outbreaks intensifying each year in some countries. The trend began in 2012 in Djibouti City, followed by outbreaks in 2016 in Ethiopia and Sudan. Research involving mosquito surveillance revealed the presence of Anopheles stephensi , a species originating in Asia and well-adapted to urban environments. The World Health Organisation …
The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe
Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean tempe…
Projected population exposure to dangerous heat stress around Lake Victoria under a high-end climate change scenario
Recent global temperature increases and extreme heat events have raised concerns about their impact on health, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa. This study assesses future heat stress and population exposure in the Lake Victoria region under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, using a convection-permitting climate model, heat stress indices (humidex and heat index), and high-resolution population projections under th…
Projected shrinking of tropical vegetation biomass potential with future hydroclimatic shifts
Global change threatens the carbon stocks stored in tropical ecosystems. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the estimates of these future carbon losses. Here, we analysed Earth system model (ESM) simulations to assess future changes in tropical vegetation biomass potential due to shifts in the hydrological cycle. We found that tropical ecosystems could experience substantial decreases in vegetation biomass potential, particularly…
Neglected implications of land-use and land-cover changes on the climate-health nexus
Climate change can substantially affect temperature-related mortality and morbidity, especially under high green-house gas emission pathways. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals require not only drastic reductions in fossil fuel-based emissions but also land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), such as reforestation and afforestation. LULCC has been mainly analysed in the context of land-based mitigation and food security. However, growing scienti…
Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time
Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attract…
Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions
Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and la…
Lack of vegetation exacerbates exposure to dangerous heat in dense settlements in a tropical African city
Both climate change and rapid urbanization accelerate exposure to heat in the city of Kampala, Uganda. From a network of low-cost temperature and humidity sensors, operational in 2018–2019, we derive the daily mean, minimum and maximum Humidex in order to quantify and explain intra-urban heat stress variation. This temperature-humidity index is shown to be heterogeneously distributed over the city, with a daily mean intra-urban Humidex Index devi…
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes …
A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrol…
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient clima…
A typology of compound weather and climate events
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b pro…
One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference
The choice of the baseline period, intentionally chosen or not, as a reference for assessing future changes of any projected variable can play an important role for the resulting statement. In regional climate impact studies, well-established or arbitrarily chosen baselines are often used without being questioned. Here we investigated the effects of different baseline periods on the interpretation of discharge simulations from eight river basins …
Can we use local climate zones for predicting malaria prevalence across sub-Saharan African cities
Malaria burden is increasing in sub-Saharan cities because of rapid and uncontrolled urbanization. Yet very few studies have studied the interactions between urban environments and malaria. Additionally, no standardized urban land-use/land-cover has been defined for urban malaria studies. Here, we demonstrate the potential of local climate zones (LCZs) for modeling malaria prevalence rate ( Pf PR 2-10 ) and studying malaria prevalence in urban se…
Smart renewable electricity portfolios in West Africa
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 C and 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct eff…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: Implications for West Africa
West African countries' energy and climate policies show a pronounced focus on decarbonising power supply through renewable electricity (RE) generation. In particular, most West African states explicitly focus on hybrid mixes of variable renewable power sources-solar, wind and hydropower-in their targets for the electricity sector. Hydropower, the main current RE resource in West Africa, is strongly sensitive to monsoon rainfall variability, whic…
Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prot…
Drivers of future changes in East African precipitation
Precipitation amounts over East Africa have been declining over the last decades. These changes and future climate change over the region are highly debated. This study analyzes drivers of future precipitation changes over East Africa by applying a classification of circulation patterns on 15 historical and future members of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment. Typical circulation types (CTs) are obtained. Under a high emissio…
Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions
Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and la…
Smart renewable electricity portfolios in West Africa
Drivers of future changes in East African precipitation
Precipitation amounts over East Africa have been declining over the last decades. These changes and future climate change over the region are highly debated. This study analyzes drivers of future precipitation changes over East Africa by applying a classification of circulation patterns on 15 historical and future members of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment. Typical circulation types (CTs) are obtained. Under a high emissio…
Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prot…
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 C and 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct eff…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: Implications for West Africa
West African countries' energy and climate policies show a pronounced focus on decarbonising power supply through renewable electricity (RE) generation. In particular, most West African states explicitly focus on hybrid mixes of variable renewable power sources-solar, wind and hydropower-in their targets for the electricity sector. Hydropower, the main current RE resource in West Africa, is strongly sensitive to monsoon rainfall variability, whic…
A typology of compound weather and climate events
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b pro…
One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference
The choice of the baseline period, intentionally chosen or not, as a reference for assessing future changes of any projected variable can play an important role for the resulting statement. In regional climate impact studies, well-established or arbitrarily chosen baselines are often used without being questioned. Here we investigated the effects of different baseline periods on the interpretation of discharge simulations from eight river basins …
Can we use local climate zones for predicting malaria prevalence across sub-Saharan African cities
Malaria burden is increasing in sub-Saharan cities because of rapid and uncontrolled urbanization. Yet very few studies have studied the interactions between urban environments and malaria. Additionally, no standardized urban land-use/land-cover has been defined for urban malaria studies. Here, we demonstrate the potential of local climate zones (LCZs) for modeling malaria prevalence rate ( Pf PR 2-10 ) and studying malaria prevalence in urban se…
Smart renewable electricity portfolios in West Africa
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes …
A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrol…
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient clima…
Lack of vegetation exacerbates exposure to dangerous heat in dense settlements in a tropical African city
Both climate change and rapid urbanization accelerate exposure to heat in the city of Kampala, Uganda. From a network of low-cost temperature and humidity sensors, operational in 2018–2019, we derive the daily mean, minimum and maximum Humidex in order to quantify and explain intra-urban heat stress variation. This temperature-humidity index is shown to be heterogeneously distributed over the city, with a daily mean intra-urban Humidex Index devi…
Neglected implications of land-use and land-cover changes on the climate-health nexus
Climate change can substantially affect temperature-related mortality and morbidity, especially under high green-house gas emission pathways. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals require not only drastic reductions in fossil fuel-based emissions but also land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), such as reforestation and afforestation. LULCC has been mainly analysed in the context of land-based mitigation and food security. However, growing scienti…
Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time
Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attract…
Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions
Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and la…
The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe
Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean tempe…
Projected population exposure to dangerous heat stress around Lake Victoria under a high-end climate change scenario
Recent global temperature increases and extreme heat events have raised concerns about their impact on health, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa. This study assesses future heat stress and population exposure in the Lake Victoria region under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, using a convection-permitting climate model, heat stress indices (humidex and heat index), and high-resolution population projections under th…
Projected shrinking of tropical vegetation biomass potential with future hydroclimatic shifts
Global change threatens the carbon stocks stored in tropical ecosystems. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the estimates of these future carbon losses. Here, we analysed Earth system model (ESM) simulations to assess future changes in tropical vegetation biomass potential due to shifts in the hydrological cycle. We found that tropical ecosystems could experience substantial decreases in vegetation biomass potential, particularly…
Limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa
During the last decade, the Horn of Africa has experienced an unexpected surge in urban malaria cases, with annual outbreaks intensifying each year in some countries. The trend began in 2012 in Djibouti City, followed by outbreaks in 2016 in Ethiopia and Sudan. Research involving mosquito surveillance revealed the presence of Anopheles stephensi , a species originating in Asia and well-adapted to urban environments. The World Health Organisation …
Environmental Science (19 works) · Climate change (16 works) · Geography (12 works) · Climatology (11 works) · Ecology (10 works) · Climate variability and models (8 works) · Geology (8 works) · Global warming (8 works) · Climate model (7 works) · Economics (7 works)