David Brayshaw
Biographic Data
| ID | 6571579 |
|---|---|
| NAME | David Brayshaw |
| GIVEN NAMES | David |
| FAMILY NAME | Brayshaw |
| SIGNATURE | BRAYSHAW D |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Centre for Atmospheric Science |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-3927-4362 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 41 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 12 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2011 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Towards a future-proof climate database for European energy system studies
In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era ‘reanalysis’ products that represent a gridded amalgamation of historical conditions from observations. However, scientific evidence suggests, and recent Europ…
Mitigating a century of European renewable variability with transmission and informed siting
To reach its goal of net greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050, the European Union seeks to massively expand wind and solar power. Relying on weather-dependent power generation, however, poses substantial risks if climate variability is not adequately understood and accounted for in energy system design. Here we quantify European wind and solar generation variability over the last century, finding that both vary on a multidecadal scale, but wind more…
European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except Cera20C
Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar rad…
The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers
The increasing use of intermittent renewable generation (such as wind) is increasing the exposure of national power systems to meteorological variability. This study identifies how the integration of wind power in one particular country (Great Britain, GB) is affecting the overall sensitivity of the power system to weather using three key metrics: total annual energy requirement, peak residual load (from sources other than wind) and wind power cu…
Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand
In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess wh…
Exploring the meteorological potential for planning a high performance European electricity super-grid
The concept of a European super-grid for electricity presents clear advantages for a reliable and affordable renewable power production (photovoltaics and wind). Based on the mean-variance portfolio optimization analysis, we explore optimal scenarios for the allocation of new renewable capacity at national level in order to provide to energy decision-makers guidance about which regions should be mostly targeted to either maximize total production…
The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain
Wind power generation in Great Britain has increased markedly in recent years. However due to its intermittency its ability to provide power during periods of high electricity demand has been questioned. Here we characterise the winter relationship between electricity demand and the availability of wind power. Although a wide range of wind power capacity factors is seen for a given demand, the average capacity factor reduces by a third between lo…
Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability
Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power sy…
The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India
India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon vari…
Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain
Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimat…
The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean
In the Mediterranean there is often no clear time gap separating an early-Holocene period of nature-dominated environmental change from a human-dominated late-Holocene one. This mid-Holocene ‘mélange’ has been the subject of debates that have often been polarised between support for climatic causation and those favouring anthropogenic explanations for changes in vegetation, river flooding, wildfire regimes, etc. One way to shed light on the cause…
Changes in Mediterranean climate during the Holocene
Palaeoproxy records alone are seldom sufficient to provide a full assessment of regional palaeoclimates. To better understand the possible changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene, a series of palaeoclimate integrations for periods spanning the last 12 000 years have been performed and their results diagnosed. These simulations use the HadSM3 global climate model, which is then dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km using a…
The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean
In the Mediterranean there is often no clear time gap separating an early-Holocene period of nature-dominated environmental change from a human-dominated late-Holocene one. This mid-Holocene ‘mélange’ has been the subject of debates that have often been polarised between support for climatic causation and those favouring anthropogenic explanations for changes in vegetation, river flooding, wildfire regimes, etc. One way to shed light on the cause…
Changes in Mediterranean climate during the Holocene
Palaeoproxy records alone are seldom sufficient to provide a full assessment of regional palaeoclimates. To better understand the possible changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene, a series of palaeoclimate integrations for periods spanning the last 12 000 years have been performed and their results diagnosed. These simulations use the HadSM3 global climate model, which is then dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km using a…
The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean
In the Mediterranean there is often no clear time gap separating an early-Holocene period of nature-dominated environmental change from a human-dominated late-Holocene one. This mid-Holocene ‘mélange’ has been the subject of debates that have often been polarised between support for climatic causation and those favouring anthropogenic explanations for changes in vegetation, river flooding, wildfire regimes, etc. One way to shed light on the cause…
Changes in Mediterranean climate during the Holocene
Palaeoproxy records alone are seldom sufficient to provide a full assessment of regional palaeoclimates. To better understand the possible changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene, a series of palaeoclimate integrations for periods spanning the last 12 000 years have been performed and their results diagnosed. These simulations use the HadSM3 global climate model, which is then dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km using a…
Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain
Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimat…
The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India
India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon vari…
Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability
Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power sy…
Exploring the meteorological potential for planning a high performance European electricity super-grid
The concept of a European super-grid for electricity presents clear advantages for a reliable and affordable renewable power production (photovoltaics and wind). Based on the mean-variance portfolio optimization analysis, we explore optimal scenarios for the allocation of new renewable capacity at national level in order to provide to energy decision-makers guidance about which regions should be mostly targeted to either maximize total production…
The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain
Wind power generation in Great Britain has increased markedly in recent years. However due to its intermittency its ability to provide power during periods of high electricity demand has been questioned. Here we characterise the winter relationship between electricity demand and the availability of wind power. Although a wide range of wind power capacity factors is seen for a given demand, the average capacity factor reduces by a third between lo…
The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers
The increasing use of intermittent renewable generation (such as wind) is increasing the exposure of national power systems to meteorological variability. This study identifies how the integration of wind power in one particular country (Great Britain, GB) is affecting the overall sensitivity of the power system to weather using three key metrics: total annual energy requirement, peak residual load (from sources other than wind) and wind power cu…
Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand
In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess wh…
European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except Cera20C
Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar rad…
Mitigating a century of European renewable variability with transmission and informed siting
To reach its goal of net greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050, the European Union seeks to massively expand wind and solar power. Relying on weather-dependent power generation, however, poses substantial risks if climate variability is not adequately understood and accounted for in energy system design. Here we quantify European wind and solar generation variability over the last century, finding that both vary on a multidecadal scale, but wind more…
Towards a future-proof climate database for European energy system studies
In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era ‘reanalysis’ products that represent a gridded amalgamation of historical conditions from observations. However, scientific evidence suggests, and recent Europ…
Environmental Science (12 works) · Geography (11 works) · Climate change (8 works) · Climatology (8 works) · Meteorology (8 works) · Climate variability and models (7 works) · Engineering (7 works) · Integrated Energy Systems Optimization (7 works) · Power (physics (7 works) · Electricity generation (6 works)