Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Bibliographic Data

ID15549328
AuthorsDavid A Lavers (0000-0002-7947-3737, University of Reading, corresponding author), Richard P Allan (0000-0003-0264-9447, National Centre for Atmospheric Science), Gabriele Villarini (0000-0001-9566-2370, University of Iowa), Benjamin Lloyd‐Hughes (University of Reading), Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes, David Brayshaw (0000-0002-3927-4362, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, corresponding author), David J Brayshaw, Andrew J Wade (0000-0002-5296-8350, University of Reading)
Year2013
Volume8
Issue3
Pages034010-034010
Publication date2013-07-23
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010
OpenAlexW2167951186
LanguageEN
Citations received9
References cited19

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing

Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Flood myth · Flooding (psychology · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Global warming · Radiative forcing · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Geology · Oceanography

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