Christian Folberth
Biographic Data
| ID | 6819239 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Christian Folberth |
| GIVEN NAMES | Christian |
| FAMILY NAME | Folberth |
| SIGNATURE | FOLBERTH C |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6738-5238 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 14 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 12 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 14 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2014 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario
Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a …
Exploring the potential for nitrogen fertilizer use mitigation with bundles of management interventions
Mineral nitrogen (N) fertilizer use is essential to maintain high-yielding cropping systems that presently provide food for nearly half of humanity. Simultaneously, it causes a range of detrimental impacts such as greenhouse gas emissions, eutrophication, and contamination of drinking water. There is growing recognition of the need to balance crop production with the impacts of fertilizer use. Here we provide a global assessment of the potential …
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Quantitative assessment of agricultural sustainability reveals divergent priorities among nations
Agriculture is fundamental to all three pillars of sustainability, environment, society, and economy. However, the definition of sustainable agriculture and capacities to measure it remain elusive. Independent and transparent measurements of national sustainability are needed to gauge progress, encourage accountability, and inform policy. Here, we developed a Sustainable Agriculture Matrix (SAM) to quantify national performance indicators in agri…
Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios
Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and …
Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system
The global cropland-sparing potential of high-yield farming
Time‐Continuous Phosphorus Flows in the Indian Agri‐Food Sector: Long‐Term Drivers and Management Options
Phosphorus (P) is a major agricultural nutrient and, in its mineable form, a potentially scarce resource. Countries with limited physical access to P should hence develop an effective national P governance. This requires analyses of trends and variations in P flows and stocks over time. Here, we present a long‐term P flow analysis for the Indian agri‐food sector from 1988 to 2011. Major P flows are imports of mineral P, fertilizer application, an…
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 C and 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct eff…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production
Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed…
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
Significance Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-d…
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Significance Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel climate change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results with multimodel agreement indicate strong negative effects from climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes where develop…
Effects of ecological and conventional agricultural intensification practices on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa under potential climate change
Much of Africa is among the world's regions with lowest yields in staple food crops, and climate change is expected to make it more difficult to catch up in crop production in particular in the long run. Various agronomic measures have been proposed for lifting agricultural production in Africa and to adapt it to climate change. Here, we present a projection of potential climate change impacts on maize yields under different intensification optio…
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
Significance Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-d…
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Significance Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel climate change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results with multimodel agreement indicate strong negative effects from climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes where develop…
Effects of ecological and conventional agricultural intensification practices on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa under potential climate change
Much of Africa is among the world's regions with lowest yields in staple food crops, and climate change is expected to make it more difficult to catch up in crop production in particular in the long run. Various agronomic measures have been proposed for lifting agricultural production in Africa and to adapt it to climate change. Here, we present a projection of potential climate change impacts on maize yields under different intensification optio…
Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production
Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed…
Time‐Continuous Phosphorus Flows in the Indian Agri‐Food Sector: Long‐Term Drivers and Management Options
Phosphorus (P) is a major agricultural nutrient and, in its mineable form, a potentially scarce resource. Countries with limited physical access to P should hence develop an effective national P governance. This requires analyses of trends and variations in P flows and stocks over time. Here, we present a long‐term P flow analysis for the Indian agri‐food sector from 1988 to 2011. Major P flows are imports of mineral P, fertilizer application, an…
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 C and 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct eff…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system
The global cropland-sparing potential of high-yield farming
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Quantitative assessment of agricultural sustainability reveals divergent priorities among nations
Agriculture is fundamental to all three pillars of sustainability, environment, society, and economy. However, the definition of sustainable agriculture and capacities to measure it remain elusive. Independent and transparent measurements of national sustainability are needed to gauge progress, encourage accountability, and inform policy. Here, we developed a Sustainable Agriculture Matrix (SAM) to quantify national performance indicators in agri…
Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios
Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and …
Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario
Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a …
Exploring the potential for nitrogen fertilizer use mitigation with bundles of management interventions
Mineral nitrogen (N) fertilizer use is essential to maintain high-yielding cropping systems that presently provide food for nearly half of humanity. Simultaneously, it causes a range of detrimental impacts such as greenhouse gas emissions, eutrophication, and contamination of drinking water. There is growing recognition of the need to balance crop production with the impacts of fertilizer use. Here we provide a global assessment of the potential …
Environmental Science (13 works) · Agriculture (12 works) · Agronomy (9 works) · Climate change (9 works) · Climate change impacts on agriculture (9 works) · Economics (9 works) · Ecology (8 works) · Geography (8 works) · Biology (6 works) · Climate model (6 works)