Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

Bibliographic Data

ID15547271
AuthorsChristoph Müller (0000-0001-9399-6676, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Joshua Elliott (0000-0003-0258-9886, University of Chicago, corresponding author), James Chryssanthacopoulos (Columbia University), Delphine Deryng (0000-0001-6214-7241, University of East Anglia), Christian Folberth (0000-0002-6738-5238, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Thomas A M Pugh (0000-0002-6242-7371, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology), Erwin Schmid (0000-0003-4783-9666, BOKU University)
Year2015
Volume10
Issue12
Pages125004-125004
Publication date2015-11-25
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125004
OpenAlexW2175813351
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited61

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries

Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Agronomy · Climate change · Climate change mitigation · Crop yield · Damages · Economics · Greenhouse gas · Natural resource economics · Productivity · Temperate climate · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Plant responses to elevated CO2 · Ecology

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