Adam A Scaife

Biographic Data

ID6819934
NAMEAdam A Scaife
GIVEN NAMESAdam A
FAMILY NAMEScaife
SIGNATURESCAIFE A A
AFFILIATIONSMet Office
ORCID0000-0002-5189-7538
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS29
TOTAL CITATIONS0
AUTHOR COUNT29
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2012
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2025
H-INDEX0

  • Increased resolution can reduce model biases in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    Open AccessBo Pang, Riyu Lu et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    This study assesses model performance in simulating the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) pattern using the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. It is found that models exhibit a large diversity in the western extension of the IPO, leading to distinct global impacts. The IPO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend more westward to the equatorial western Pacific (WP) in the low-resolution (LR) models, along with a wes…

  • The risk and dynamics of unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall over Southeast China under the current climate

    Open AccessKmc Cheung, Ka Ho Cheung et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    Under the influence of Asian summer monsoon, extremely heavy summer rainfall could occur in Southeast China, causing catastrophic social-economic impacts to the region. However, due to limited historical records, it is difficult to anticipate the risks of unprecedented extreme rainfall episodes. In this study the UNSEEN method (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) is applied for studying these events, by sampling large ensemble clima…

  • Transition of El Niño to La Niña can be driven by regional perturbations a year ahead

    Open AccessChris Kent, Adam A Scaife et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    Interannual forecasts provide skilful predictions of El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) up to a year in advance, however our understanding of what drives the ensemble skill and diversity of outcomes across members is limited. Using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere ensemble forecasting system, we investigate the causality of regional perturbations on the evolution of ENSO at interannual timescales. Using forecasts initialised on 1 November 2009, …

  • The Little Book of Weather

    Adam A Scaife, Adam ScaifeBOOKLittle Book of Weather2024

    A charming, richly illustrated, pocket-size exploration of the world’s weather Packed with surprising facts, this delightful and gorgeously designed book will beguile anyone who is curious about weather. Expertly written and beautifully illustrated throughout with color photographs and original color artwork, The Little Book of Weather is an accessible and enjoyable mini-reference about the world’s weather, with examples drawn from across the glo…

  • Eurasian mid-latitude jet stream bridges an Atlantic to Asia summer teleconnection in heat extremes

    Open AccessYu Nie, Hong‐Li Ren et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024

    Northern Europe and Northeast Asia, which are climatologically mild and temperate in early summer, both witnessed record-breaking heat extremes in June 2023. With a focus on the subseasonal time scale, this study highlights a teleconnected relationship in historical early-summer heat extremes between Northern Europe and Northeast Asia. By diagnosing the thermal budget and wave activity flux, we show that over one third of historical Northeast Asi…

  • Assessing the chance of unprecedented dry conditions over North Brazil during El Niño events

    Open AccessGillian Kay, Nick Dunstone et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2022

    The strongest El Niño events of the past four decades were associated with large rainfall deficits in North Brazil during the December to February mature phase, leading to substantial societal and ecological impacts and influencing the global carbon cycle. While the teleconnection between El Niño and northern South America is well studied, the small number of El Niño events—and especially high magnitude ‘major’ El Niños—in the recent observationa…

  • Estimating unprecedented extremes in UK summer daily rainfall

    Open AccessChris Kent, Nick Dunstone et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    The UNSEEN (unprecedented simulated extremes using ensemble) method involves using a large ensemble of climate model simulations to increase the sample size of rare events. Here we extend UNSEEN to focus on intense summertime daily rainfall, estimating plausible rainfall extremes in the current climate. To address modelling limitations simulations from two climate models were used; an initialised 25 km global model that uses parameterised convect…

  • Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector

    Open AccessAnna Maidens, Jeff Knight et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    Seasonal forecast systems have demonstrated significant skill in forecasting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent years. This skill is a result of influences that have remote origins, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Here we assess the role of the tropical troposphere and the extra-tropical stratosphere in driving North Atlantic-European wintertime sea level pressure, using…

  • How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be

    Open AccessShipra Jain, Adam A ScaifeARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    We provide a methodology to estimate possible extreme changes in seasonal rainfall for the coming decades. We demonstrate this methodology using Indian summer monsoon rainfall as an example. We use an ensemble of 1669 realizations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from selected seasonal prediction systems to estimate internal variability and show how it can exacerbate or alleviate forced climate change. Our estimates show that for the next decade…

  • Current chance of unprecedented monsoon rainfall over India using dynamical ensemble simulations

    Open AccessShipra Jain, Adam A Scaife et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    In the past, India has suffered severe socio-economic losses due to recurring floods and droughts during boreal summer (June–August). In this analysis, we estimate the chance of extreme summer rainfall, i.e. flood and drought over India for the present climate using the UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles (UNSEEN) method. This is the first application of the method to the hindcasts from multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean models. We fi…

  • Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles

    Open AccessNick Dunstone, Doug Smith et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    Climate prediction skill on the interannual timescale, which sits between that of seasonal and decadal, is investigated using large ensembles from the Met Office and CESM initialised coupled prediction systems. A key goal is to determine what can be skillfully predicted about the coming year when combining these two ensembles together. Annual surface temperature predictions show good skill at both global and regional scales, but skill diminishes …

  • Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK

    Open AccessGillian Kay, Nick Dunstone et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    Summer 2018 in the United Kingdom (UK) was its joint hottest on record and the associated impacts raise questions over societal resilience to extremes of this magnitude or greater occurring in upcoming years. Better information on the current likelihood of extreme and unprecedented events feeds into improved understanding of risk, relevant for policy and contingency planning. However, making robust estimates of likelihood is difficult given that …

  • What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere

    Open AccessLei Wang, Steven C Hardiman et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are amongst the most dramatic events in the Earth’s atmosphere and they drive extreme surface weather conditions. They have been recently linked to the hot and dry weather conditions that favour wildfires over Australia. However, the chance of a southern hemisphere event is unknown because it has only been observed once. Legitimate estimation of the frequency of SSW events requires a large sample of realistic …

  • Enhanced mid-to-late winter predictability of the storm track variability in the North Pacific as a contrast with the North Atlantic

    Open AccessYu Nie, Hong‐Li Ren et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    The storm tracks are a major driver of regional extreme weather events. Using the daily output of reanalysis and a latest generation ensemble seasonal forecasting system, this study examines the interannual variability and predictability of the boreal winter storm tracks in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. In both basins, the leading mode of storm track variability describes a latitudinal shifting of the climatological storm tracks. The shif…

  • Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

    Open AccessYu Nie, Adam A Scaife et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2019

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), dominates winter climate variability in Europe and North America. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the winter NAO/AO has been demonstrated recently by dynamical prediction systems. However, the role of initial conditions in this predictability remains unknown. Using a latest generation seasonal forecasting system and reanalysis data, we show that the i…

  • Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand

    Open AccessHazel Thornton, Adam A Scaife et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2018

    In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess wh…

  • Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Open AccessChris Kent, Edward Pope et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2017

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of ini…

  • Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013–14

    Open AccessJeff Knight, Jeff R Knight et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2017

    The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about wh…

  • The asymmetric response of Yangtze river basin summer rainfall to El Niño/La Niña

    Open AccessSteven C Hardiman, Nick Dunstone et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2017

    The Yangtze river basin, in South East China, experiences anomalously high precipitation in summers following El Niño. This can lead to extensive flooding and loss of life. However, the response following La Niña has not been well documented. In this study, the response of Yangtze summer rainfall to El Niño/La Niña is found to be asymmetric, with no significant response following La Niña. The nature of this asymmetric response is found to be in g…

  • Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China

    Open AccessBo Lu, Adam A Scaife et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2017

    Southern China experiences large year-to-year variability in the amount of winter precipitation, which can result in severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we demonstrate prediction skill of southern China winter precipitation by three operational seasonal prediction models: the operational Global seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Mod…

  • The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain

    Open AccessHazel Thornton, Hazel E Thornton et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2017

    Wind power generation in Great Britain has increased markedly in recent years. However due to its intermittency its ability to provide power during periods of high electricity demand has been questioned. Here we characterise the winter relationship between electricity demand and the availability of wind power. Although a wide range of wind power capacity factors is seen for a given demand, the average capacity factor reduces by a third between lo…

  • Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry

    Open AccessRobin Clark, Robin T Clark et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2017

    We assess the utility of seasonal forecasts for the energy industry by showing how recently-established predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter allows predictability of near-surface wind speed and air temperature and therefore energy supply and demand respectively. Our seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) successfully reproduces the influence of the NAO on European climate, leading to skilful forecasts of wind speed and w…

  • Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall

    Open AccessChaofan Li, Adam A Scaife et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2016

    China suffers from frequent summer floods and droughts, but seasonal forecast skill of corresponding summer rainfall remains a key challenge. In this study, we demonstrate useful levels of prediction skill over the Yangtze river valley for summer rainfall and river flows using a new high resolution forecast system. Further analysis of the sources of predictability suggests that the predictability of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall correspond…

  • The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain

    Open AccessHazel Thornton, H E Thornton et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2016

    The daily relationship of electricity and gas demand with temperature in Great Britain is analysed from 1975 to 2013 and 1996 to 2013 respectively. The annual mean and annual cycle amplitude of electricity demand exhibit low frequency variability. This low frequency variability is thought to be predominantly driven by socio-economic changes rather than temperature variation. Once this variability is removed, both daily electricity and gas demand …

  • Skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice cover

    Open AccessAlexey Yu Karpechko, K Andrew Peterson et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2015

    The interannual variability in the Baltic Sea ice cover is strongly influenced by large scale atmospheric circulation. Recent progress in forecasting of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) provides the possibility of skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice conditions. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art forecast system to assess the predictability of the Baltic Sea annual maximum ice extent (MIE). We find a useful level of skil…