Bruce A Carnes
Biographic Data
| ID | 748248 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Bruce A Carnes |
| GIVEN NAMES | Bruce A |
| FAMILY NAME | Carnes |
| SIGNATURE | CARNES B A |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 13 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 134 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 13 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1990 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
Old Age and Centenarians
Differences In Life Expectancy Due To Race And Educational Differences Are Widening, And Many May Not Catch Up
It has long been known that despite well-documented improvements in longevity for most Americans, alarming disparities persist among racial groups and between the well-educated and those with less education. In this article we update estimates of the impact of race and education on past and present life expectancy, examine trends in disparities from 1990 through 2008, and place observed disparities in the context of a rapidly aging society that i…
A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors'views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a "realist" position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advanc…
A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we c…
Genealogical data and the biodemography of human longevity
Biodemography of human longevity is an emerging interdisciplinary field of sociobiological research with deep historical roots. Two research questions are examined in this article: (1) What evidence is there for the familial transmission of human longevity?, and (2) what are the effects of parental age at reproduction on offspring longevity, and in particular, are there long-term adverse health consequences associated with the trend toward delaye…
A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span
The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age-entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its re…
The Quest for Immortality. Science at the Frontiers of Aging
For more than a decade, Dr. Olshansky and Dr. Carnes have been working in the field of aging to identify the biological attributes of species that influence their length of life. Amid countless claims by scientists and the lay population that human life expectancy will continue to rise indefinitely in the future, Olshansky and Carnes have stood fast in their conviction that such claims are without any scientific basis. In their book The Quest for…
Ever since gompertz
In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’…
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
Scientists have long attempted to explain why closely similar age patterns of death are characteristic of highly diverse human and nonhuman populations. Historical efforts to identify a general "law of mortality" from these patterns that applied across species ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These early efforts were conducted using mortality curves based on all causes of death. The authors predict that if compari…
Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence
Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a …
Evolutionary Perspectives on Human Senescence
What we call senescence may simply be the inadvertent consequence of surviving beyond the reproductive period. As survival is further extended inevitable declines in physiological function and a proliferation of fatal and nonfatal degenerative diseases that become progressively less amenable to modification would be predicted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health
This article demonstrates and explains why future declines in mortality will have a diminishing effect on the metric of life expectancy but a large impact on the size of future elderly cohorts. Additionally, the article addresses a hypothesis in which it is argued that morbidity and disability will decline and become compressed into a shorter duration of time before death. Although studies have demonstrated that declining mortality can lead to wo…
In Search of Methuselah
Estimates of the upper limits to human longevity have important policy implications that directly affect forecasts of life expectancy, active life expectancy, population aging, and social and medical programs tied to the size and health status of the elderly population. In the past, investigators have based speculations about the upper limits of human longevity on observations of past trends in mortality. Here the estimate of the upper bound is b…
Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health
This article demonstrates and explains why future declines in mortality will have a diminishing effect on the metric of life expectancy but a large impact on the size of future elderly cohorts. Additionally, the article addresses a hypothesis in which it is argued that morbidity and disability will decline and become compressed into a shorter duration of time before death. Although studies have demonstrated that declining mortality can lead to wo…
Ever since gompertz
In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’…
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
Scientists have long attempted to explain why closely similar age patterns of death are characteristic of highly diverse human and nonhuman populations. Historical efforts to identify a general "law of mortality" from these patterns that applied across species ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These early efforts were conducted using mortality curves based on all causes of death. The authors predict that if compari…
A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors'views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a "realist" position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advanc…
Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence
Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a …
Evolutionary Perspectives on Human Senescence
What we call senescence may simply be the inadvertent consequence of surviving beyond the reproductive period. As survival is further extended inevitable declines in physiological function and a proliferation of fatal and nonfatal degenerative diseases that become progressively less amenable to modification would be predicted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
The Quest for Immortality. Science at the Frontiers of Aging
For more than a decade, Dr. Olshansky and Dr. Carnes have been working in the field of aging to identify the biological attributes of species that influence their length of life. Amid countless claims by scientists and the lay population that human life expectancy will continue to rise indefinitely in the future, Olshansky and Carnes have stood fast in their conviction that such claims are without any scientific basis. In their book The Quest for…
A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span
The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age-entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its re…
Genealogical data and the biodemography of human longevity
Biodemography of human longevity is an emerging interdisciplinary field of sociobiological research with deep historical roots. Two research questions are examined in this article: (1) What evidence is there for the familial transmission of human longevity?, and (2) what are the effects of parental age at reproduction on offspring longevity, and in particular, are there long-term adverse health consequences associated with the trend toward delaye…
In Search of Methuselah
Estimates of the upper limits to human longevity have important policy implications that directly affect forecasts of life expectancy, active life expectancy, population aging, and social and medical programs tied to the size and health status of the elderly population. In the past, investigators have based speculations about the upper limits of human longevity on observations of past trends in mortality. Here the estimate of the upper bound is b…
Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health
This article demonstrates and explains why future declines in mortality will have a diminishing effect on the metric of life expectancy but a large impact on the size of future elderly cohorts. Additionally, the article addresses a hypothesis in which it is argued that morbidity and disability will decline and become compressed into a shorter duration of time before death. Although studies have demonstrated that declining mortality can lead to wo…
Evolutionary Perspectives on Human Senescence
What we call senescence may simply be the inadvertent consequence of surviving beyond the reproductive period. As survival is further extended inevitable declines in physiological function and a proliferation of fatal and nonfatal degenerative diseases that become progressively less amenable to modification would be predicted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence
Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a …
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
Scientists have long attempted to explain why closely similar age patterns of death are characteristic of highly diverse human and nonhuman populations. Historical efforts to identify a general "law of mortality" from these patterns that applied across species ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These early efforts were conducted using mortality curves based on all causes of death. The authors predict that if compari…
Ever since gompertz
In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’…
Genealogical data and the biodemography of human longevity
Biodemography of human longevity is an emerging interdisciplinary field of sociobiological research with deep historical roots. Two research questions are examined in this article: (1) What evidence is there for the familial transmission of human longevity?, and (2) what are the effects of parental age at reproduction on offspring longevity, and in particular, are there long-term adverse health consequences associated with the trend toward delaye…
A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span
The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age-entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its re…
The Quest for Immortality. Science at the Frontiers of Aging
For more than a decade, Dr. Olshansky and Dr. Carnes have been working in the field of aging to identify the biological attributes of species that influence their length of life. Amid countless claims by scientists and the lay population that human life expectancy will continue to rise indefinitely in the future, Olshansky and Carnes have stood fast in their conviction that such claims are without any scientific basis. In their book The Quest for…
A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we c…
A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors'views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a "realist" position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advanc…
Differences In Life Expectancy Due To Race And Educational Differences Are Widening, And Many May Not Catch Up
It has long been known that despite well-documented improvements in longevity for most Americans, alarming disparities persist among racial groups and between the well-educated and those with less education. In this article we update estimates of the impact of race and education on past and present life expectancy, examine trends in disparities from 1990 through 2008, and place observed disparities in the context of a rapidly aging society that i…
Old Age and Centenarians
Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (10 works) · Demography (9 works) · Medicine (8 works) · Sociology (8 works) · Population (7 works) · Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms (6 works) · Gerontology (6 works) · Life expectancy (6 works) · Longevity (6 works) · Global Health Care Issues (5 works)