Jennifer S Holmes
Biographic Data
| ID | 800829 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jennifer S Holmes |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jennifer S |
| FAMILY NAME | Holmes |
| SIGNATURE | HOLMES J S |
| AFFILIATIONS | The University of Texas at Dallas |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7672-5935 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 27 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 138 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 27 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2001 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2023 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
Human Rights Violations in Space: Assessing the External Validity of Machine-Geocoded versus Human-Geocoded Data
Political event data are widely used in studies of political violence. Recent years have seen notable advances in the automated coding of political event data from international news sources. Yet, the validity of machine-coded event data remains disputed, especially in the context of event geolocation. We analyze the frequencies of human- and machine-geocoded event data agreement in relation to an independent (ground truth) source. The events are…
A hotspot analysis of critical hydrocarbons infrastructure in Colombia: ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) and Farc (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) attacks on Colombian pipelines
Forests, Coca, and Conflict: Grass Frontier Dynamics and Deforestation in the Amazon-Andes
Population growth with weak economic development can promote tropical deforestation, but government infrastructure investment can also open new frontiers and thus increase deforestation. In the Andean region of South America, population growth has been a leading explanation for both deforestation and coca cultivation, but coca generates armed conflict and attracts counter-drug measures, obscuring the differences between population-driven and fron…
The Preferences of Political Elites and Humanitarian Immigration to the United States
Banks Miller a, Jennifer S. Holmes b, Linda Camp Keith c, The Preferences of Political Elites and Humanitarian Immigration to the United States, RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vol. 6, No. 3, The Legal Landscape of U.S. Immigration in the Twenty-First Century (November 2020), pp. 150-171
Translating Cameo verbs for automated coding of event data
The Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) framework is the industry standard for computerized event coding that produces massive data on political conflict at a global scale. However, despite their focus on conflict in foreign locations, most coding efforts have the limitation of exclusively relying on text written in English. This paper advances the frontier of computerized event coding by presenting the CAMEO Verb Translation Applic…
The Prevalence and Severity of Underreporting Bias in Machine- and Human-Coded Data
Textual data are plagued by underreporting bias. For example, news sources often fail to report human rights violations. Cook et al. propose a multi-source estimator to gauge, and to account for, the underreporting of state repression events within human codings of news texts produced by the Agence France-Presse and Associated Press. We evaluate this estimator with Monte Carlo experiments, and then use it to compare the prevalence and seriousness…
Opposition Support and the Experience of Violence Explain Colombian Peace Referendum Results
What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Initial analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect electoral outcomes. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to test links between referendum result and previous violence victimization, economic conditions, and support for Centro Democrático (the main part…
Terrorism and Democratic Stability
Can terrorism and state violence cause democratic breakdowns? Although the origins of violence have been studied, only rarely are its consequences. And even when the consequences of violence are studied, its effects are usually limited to consideration of preexisting conflict that originally spawned the violence. In Terrorism and Democratic Stability, Holmes claims that to understand the consequences of violence on democratic stability, terrorism…
Vamos Para Rua! Taking to the Streets Protest in Brazil
The unprecedented protests that unfolded in June 2013 in Brazil, surprised even the most observant Brazilian scholars. A local conflict over the increase of public transportation fare took an unexpected turn and ignited a massive nationwide mobilization. These protests have perplexed many because Brazil was not experiencing the context of economic or political instabilities that are common to other countries around the world, where massive protes…
Latin American Democracy: Emerging Reality or Endangered Species
1. Introduction, Richard L. Millett 2. Democratic Consolidation in Latin America? Jennifer Holmes 3. Measuring Democratic Political Culture in Latin America Orlando Perez 4. Latin American Democracy: How is it Viewed From the North? Ambler Moss 5. Latin American Democracy: The View from the South Francisco Rojas Aravena Part 2: The Status of Institutions 6. The Rule of Law in Latin America Luz E. Nagle 7. Executive-Legislative Relations and Democ…
Immigration Judges and U.S. Asylum Policy
Immigration Judges and U.S. Asylum Policy investigates hundreds of thousands of U.S. asylum cases with theoretical sophistication and empirical rigor, finding that immigration judges tend to assess legally relevant facts objectively while their decisions may be subjectively influenced by extralegal facts.
Leveling the Odds: The Effect of Quality Legal Representation in Cases of Asymmetrical Capability
How much does attorney quality influence the outcome of cases in which one litigant is significantly more capable than the other? Using a unique dataset of all asylum merits decision from 1990 to 2010, we find that high quality representation evens the odds for asylum applicants and that not being represented by legal counsel is actually better than being represented by a poor lawyer. In this analysis, we draw on a modified party capability theor…
Violence and the state: Lessons from Colombia
Whether or not Colombia has improved is a controversial topic. If improvement has occurred, what, if any, lessons from the Colombian model can be learned? The first lesson is that Colombia's problems were caused more by a weak state than by drugs. The second lesson is that improving state capacity requires more than just increased security. The state must also provide the basic social services that citizens require to gain and maintain their supp…
Security and economic voting: Support for incumbent parties in Colombian presidential elections
Theories of economic voting developed in the United States and Europe take security for granted. However, many countries in other regions of the world suffer from daily political violence. The Colombian experience suggests that additional sources of performance failure beyond traditional economic measures should be examined to understand support for incumbents. Colombia has suffered from political violence for decades. This paper examines whether…
Explaining the Divergence in Asylum Grant Rates among Immigration Judges: An Attitudinal and Cognitive Approach
In seeking to understand the variation in asylum grant rates by immigration judges (IJs), we apply a variation of the attitudinal model that we modify by incorporating a cognitive model of decision making, arguing that some pieces of information before IJs are treated objectively while others are treated subjectively. This model allows us to account for informational cues that influence decisions while assessing the impact of national interests a…
Party System Decline in Colombia: A Subnational Examination of Presidential and Senate Elections from 1994 to 2006
While many Latin American party systems are experiencing new levels of volatility, the Colombian case allows us to examine the effects of performance factors such as violence and unemployment, while controlling for the consequences of structural change. What best explains changes in the Colombian party system? In the 1980s and 1990s, national level institutional changes created a uniform shock to the party system. Meanwhile, the country faced cru…
Before the Shining Path: Politics in Rural Ayacucho, 1895-1980 - by Heilman, Jaymie P
Conflict-Induced Displacement and Violence in Colombia
Recent work in the refugee literature finds that both insurgents hiding in camps and aid to refugees may increase violence. This article assesses whether this theory applies to Conflict Induced Displaced People (IDPs). Specifically, it asks if the arrival of IDPs increases leftist violence in Colombia. Colombia has high numbers of IDPs, significant insurgent violence, and available sub-national data to enable an examination of IDP flows on leftis…
Does the Fear of Terrorists Trump the Fear of Persecution in Asylum Outcomes in the Post–September 11 Era
Historically, U.S. asylum policy has reflected both an effort to provide safe haven for deserving asylum seekers and the intent to promote national security and domestic policy priorities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that asylum outcomes, at least in the aggregate, have been weighted more heavily by foreign policy considerations than humanitarian concerns. Since the mid 1990s, the United States government has reformed the asylum…
Political Science Computing: A Review of Trends in Computer Evolution and Political Science Research
The increase in computing power in the last four decades has had an enormous impact upon the way political scientists conduct research. In this article, we review the development of computing resources and the lifting of computational limitations of the use of political methodologies. Using descriptive analysis, we demonstrate that Moore's Law, or the doubling of power in computing hardware every 18 months, is closely associated with the adoption…
A Rare Examination of Typically Unobservable Factors in US Asylum Decisions
Journal Article A Rare Examination of Typically Unobservable Factors in US Asylum Decisions Get access Linda Camp Keith, Linda Camp Keith School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Jennifer S. Holmes Jennifer S. Holmes School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA Search for other works by t…
A Subnational Study of Insurgency: Farc Violence in the 1990s
This article examines the traditional political and economic factors that have been purported to explain the prevalence of insurgency. It tests the following hypotheses at the subnational level in Colombia: guerrilla violence is positively associated with exports; higher levels of insurgency are associated with low levels of GDP per capita or negative growth rates; guerrilla violence emerges in the context of weak state presence; and higher level…
The Illegal Drug Industry, Violence and the Colombian Economy: A Department Level Analysis
Previous research on the Colombian illegal drug trade, which is generally qualitative in approach and focused on the national level, has concluded that the drug industry harms the economy. In order to test out this widespread claim, this article seeks to differentiate between the corrosive economic effects of Colombia's persistently high levels of generalised political violence and the specific consequences of the cocaine trade. It combines histo…
Drugs, Violence, and Development in Colombia: A Department-Level Analysis
Observers say that drug production fuels violence in Colombia, but does coca production explain different levels of violence? This article examines the relationship between coca production and guerrilla violence by reviewing national-level data over time and studying Colombia by department, exploring the interactions among guerrilla violence, exports, development, and displacement. It uses historical analysis, cartographic visualization, and anal…
Terrorism, Drugs, and Violence in Latin America
Violence, ineffective government, and impunity are unfortunately common problems in Latin America. Both Peru and Colombia have faced economic crises, rampant violence, and weak governments. Peru experienced the peak of violence in 1989 and a subsequent decline in recent years. Since 1980 Peru has returned to democracy, struggled with violence, and survived President Alberto Fujimori's autogolpe and the subsequent corruption of his regime. Current…
Explaining the Divergence in Asylum Grant Rates among Immigration Judges: An Attitudinal and Cognitive Approach
In seeking to understand the variation in asylum grant rates by immigration judges (IJs), we apply a variation of the attitudinal model that we modify by incorporating a cognitive model of decision making, arguing that some pieces of information before IJs are treated objectively while others are treated subjectively. This model allows us to account for informational cues that influence decisions while assessing the impact of national interests a…
Leveling the Odds: The Effect of Quality Legal Representation in Cases of Asymmetrical Capability
How much does attorney quality influence the outcome of cases in which one litigant is significantly more capable than the other? Using a unique dataset of all asylum merits decision from 1990 to 2010, we find that high quality representation evens the odds for asylum applicants and that not being represented by legal counsel is actually better than being represented by a poor lawyer. In this analysis, we draw on a modified party capability theor…
Opposition Support and the Experience of Violence Explain Colombian Peace Referendum Results
What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Initial analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect electoral outcomes. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to test links between referendum result and previous violence victimization, economic conditions, and support for Centro Democrático (the main part…
A Rare Examination of Typically Unobservable Factors in US Asylum Decisions
Journal Article A Rare Examination of Typically Unobservable Factors in US Asylum Decisions Get access Linda Camp Keith, Linda Camp Keith School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Jennifer S. Holmes Jennifer S. Holmes School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA Search for other works by t…
A Subnational Study of Insurgency: Farc Violence in the 1990s
This article examines the traditional political and economic factors that have been purported to explain the prevalence of insurgency. It tests the following hypotheses at the subnational level in Colombia: guerrilla violence is positively associated with exports; higher levels of insurgency are associated with low levels of GDP per capita or negative growth rates; guerrilla violence emerges in the context of weak state presence; and higher level…
The Prevalence and Severity of Underreporting Bias in Machine- and Human-Coded Data
Textual data are plagued by underreporting bias. For example, news sources often fail to report human rights violations. Cook et al. propose a multi-source estimator to gauge, and to account for, the underreporting of state repression events within human codings of news texts produced by the Agence France-Presse and Associated Press. We evaluate this estimator with Monte Carlo experiments, and then use it to compare the prevalence and seriousness…
Security and economic voting: Support for incumbent parties in Colombian presidential elections
Theories of economic voting developed in the United States and Europe take security for granted. However, many countries in other regions of the world suffer from daily political violence. The Colombian experience suggests that additional sources of performance failure beyond traditional economic measures should be examined to understand support for incumbents. Colombia has suffered from political violence for decades. This paper examines whether…
Violence and the state: Lessons from Colombia
Whether or not Colombia has improved is a controversial topic. If improvement has occurred, what, if any, lessons from the Colombian model can be learned? The first lesson is that Colombia's problems were caused more by a weak state than by drugs. The second lesson is that improving state capacity requires more than just increased security. The state must also provide the basic social services that citizens require to gain and maintain their supp…
Conflict-Induced Displacement and Violence in Colombia
Recent work in the refugee literature finds that both insurgents hiding in camps and aid to refugees may increase violence. This article assesses whether this theory applies to Conflict Induced Displaced People (IDPs). Specifically, it asks if the arrival of IDPs increases leftist violence in Colombia. Colombia has high numbers of IDPs, significant insurgent violence, and available sub-national data to enable an examination of IDP flows on leftis…
Drugs, Violence, and Development in Colombia: A Department-Level Analysis
Observers say that drug production fuels violence in Colombia, but does coca production explain different levels of violence? This article examines the relationship between coca production and guerrilla violence by reviewing national-level data over time and studying Colombia by department, exploring the interactions among guerrilla violence, exports, development, and displacement. It uses historical analysis, cartographic visualization, and anal…
Sources of Fujimori's Popularity: Neo-liberal Reform or Ending Terrorism
Much has been discussed regarding the support for Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori during the implementation of his 'fujishock' program. In the voting behavior literature, the role of Fujimori's success in ending the terrorism is mentioned, but is a mere footnote to the story. However, we present historical analysis, public opinion data and economic statistics to argue that had he not controlled terrorism, Fujimori would not have been able to …
The Preferences of Political Elites and Humanitarian Immigration to the United States
Banks Miller a, Jennifer S. Holmes b, Linda Camp Keith c, The Preferences of Political Elites and Humanitarian Immigration to the United States, RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vol. 6, No. 3, The Legal Landscape of U.S. Immigration in the Twenty-First Century (November 2020), pp. 150-171
Party System Decline in Colombia: A Subnational Examination of Presidential and Senate Elections from 1994 to 2006
While many Latin American party systems are experiencing new levels of volatility, the Colombian case allows us to examine the effects of performance factors such as violence and unemployment, while controlling for the consequences of structural change. What best explains changes in the Colombian party system? In the 1980s and 1990s, national level institutional changes created a uniform shock to the party system. Meanwhile, the country faced cru…
Human Rights Violations in Space: Assessing the External Validity of Machine-Geocoded versus Human-Geocoded Data
Political event data are widely used in studies of political violence. Recent years have seen notable advances in the automated coding of political event data from international news sources. Yet, the validity of machine-coded event data remains disputed, especially in the context of event geolocation. We analyze the frequencies of human- and machine-geocoded event data agreement in relation to an independent (ground truth) source. The events are…
Does the Fear of Terrorists Trump the Fear of Persecution in Asylum Outcomes in the Post–September 11 Era
Historically, U.S. asylum policy has reflected both an effort to provide safe haven for deserving asylum seekers and the intent to promote national security and domestic policy priorities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that asylum outcomes, at least in the aggregate, have been weighted more heavily by foreign policy considerations than humanitarian concerns. Since the mid 1990s, the United States government has reformed the asylum…
The Illegal Drug Industry, Violence and the Colombian Economy: A Department Level Analysis
Previous research on the Colombian illegal drug trade, which is generally qualitative in approach and focused on the national level, has concluded that the drug industry harms the economy. In order to test out this widespread claim, this article seeks to differentiate between the corrosive economic effects of Colombia's persistently high levels of generalised political violence and the specific consequences of the cocaine trade. It combines histo…
Forests, Coca, and Conflict: Grass Frontier Dynamics and Deforestation in the Amazon-Andes
Population growth with weak economic development can promote tropical deforestation, but government infrastructure investment can also open new frontiers and thus increase deforestation. In the Andean region of South America, population growth has been a leading explanation for both deforestation and coca cultivation, but coca generates armed conflict and attracts counter-drug measures, obscuring the differences between population-driven and fron…
Translating Cameo verbs for automated coding of event data
The Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) framework is the industry standard for computerized event coding that produces massive data on political conflict at a global scale. However, despite their focus on conflict in foreign locations, most coding efforts have the limitation of exclusively relying on text written in English. This paper advances the frontier of computerized event coding by presenting the CAMEO Verb Translation Applic…
Political Parties, the Right, and Institutions in Latin America: Prospects for Democracy Conservative Parties, the Right and Democracy in Latin America . Kevin J. Middlebrook Chile's Political Culture…
Terrorism, Drugs, and Violence in Latin America
Violence, ineffective government, and impunity are unfortunately common problems in Latin America. Both Peru and Colombia have faced economic crises, rampant violence, and weak governments. Peru experienced the peak of violence in 1989 and a subsequent decline in recent years. Since 1980 Peru has returned to democracy, struggled with violence, and survived President Alberto Fujimori's autogolpe and the subsequent corruption of his regime. Current…
Sources of Fujimori's Popularity: Neo-liberal Reform or Ending Terrorism
Much has been discussed regarding the support for Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori during the implementation of his 'fujishock' program. In the voting behavior literature, the role of Fujimori's success in ending the terrorism is mentioned, but is a mere footnote to the story. However, we present historical analysis, public opinion data and economic statistics to argue that had he not controlled terrorism, Fujimori would not have been able to …
The Illegal Drug Industry, Violence and the Colombian Economy: A Department Level Analysis
Previous research on the Colombian illegal drug trade, which is generally qualitative in approach and focused on the national level, has concluded that the drug industry harms the economy. In order to test out this widespread claim, this article seeks to differentiate between the corrosive economic effects of Colombia's persistently high levels of generalised political violence and the specific consequences of the cocaine trade. It combines histo…
Drugs, Violence, and Development in Colombia: A Department-Level Analysis
Observers say that drug production fuels violence in Colombia, but does coca production explain different levels of violence? This article examines the relationship between coca production and guerrilla violence by reviewing national-level data over time and studying Colombia by department, exploring the interactions among guerrilla violence, exports, development, and displacement. It uses historical analysis, cartographic visualization, and anal…
A Subnational Study of Insurgency: Farc Violence in the 1990s
This article examines the traditional political and economic factors that have been purported to explain the prevalence of insurgency. It tests the following hypotheses at the subnational level in Colombia: guerrilla violence is positively associated with exports; higher levels of insurgency are associated with low levels of GDP per capita or negative growth rates; guerrilla violence emerges in the context of weak state presence; and higher level…
Political Science Computing: A Review of Trends in Computer Evolution and Political Science Research
The increase in computing power in the last four decades has had an enormous impact upon the way political scientists conduct research. In this article, we review the development of computing resources and the lifting of computational limitations of the use of political methodologies. Using descriptive analysis, we demonstrate that Moore's Law, or the doubling of power in computing hardware every 18 months, is closely associated with the adoption…
A Rare Examination of Typically Unobservable Factors in US Asylum Decisions
Journal Article A Rare Examination of Typically Unobservable Factors in US Asylum Decisions Get access Linda Camp Keith, Linda Camp Keith School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Jennifer S. Holmes Jennifer S. Holmes School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA Search for other works by t…
Does the Fear of Terrorists Trump the Fear of Persecution in Asylum Outcomes in the Post–September 11 Era
Historically, U.S. asylum policy has reflected both an effort to provide safe haven for deserving asylum seekers and the intent to promote national security and domestic policy priorities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that asylum outcomes, at least in the aggregate, have been weighted more heavily by foreign policy considerations than humanitarian concerns. Since the mid 1990s, the United States government has reformed the asylum…
Conflict-Induced Displacement and Violence in Colombia
Recent work in the refugee literature finds that both insurgents hiding in camps and aid to refugees may increase violence. This article assesses whether this theory applies to Conflict Induced Displaced People (IDPs). Specifically, it asks if the arrival of IDPs increases leftist violence in Colombia. Colombia has high numbers of IDPs, significant insurgent violence, and available sub-national data to enable an examination of IDP flows on leftis…
Party System Decline in Colombia: A Subnational Examination of Presidential and Senate Elections from 1994 to 2006
While many Latin American party systems are experiencing new levels of volatility, the Colombian case allows us to examine the effects of performance factors such as violence and unemployment, while controlling for the consequences of structural change. What best explains changes in the Colombian party system? In the 1980s and 1990s, national level institutional changes created a uniform shock to the party system. Meanwhile, the country faced cru…
Before the Shining Path: Politics in Rural Ayacucho, 1895-1980 - by Heilman, Jaymie P
Security and economic voting: Support for incumbent parties in Colombian presidential elections
Theories of economic voting developed in the United States and Europe take security for granted. However, many countries in other regions of the world suffer from daily political violence. The Colombian experience suggests that additional sources of performance failure beyond traditional economic measures should be examined to understand support for incumbents. Colombia has suffered from political violence for decades. This paper examines whether…
Explaining the Divergence in Asylum Grant Rates among Immigration Judges: An Attitudinal and Cognitive Approach
In seeking to understand the variation in asylum grant rates by immigration judges (IJs), we apply a variation of the attitudinal model that we modify by incorporating a cognitive model of decision making, arguing that some pieces of information before IJs are treated objectively while others are treated subjectively. This model allows us to account for informational cues that influence decisions while assessing the impact of national interests a…
Violence and the state: Lessons from Colombia
Whether or not Colombia has improved is a controversial topic. If improvement has occurred, what, if any, lessons from the Colombian model can be learned? The first lesson is that Colombia's problems were caused more by a weak state than by drugs. The second lesson is that improving state capacity requires more than just increased security. The state must also provide the basic social services that citizens require to gain and maintain their supp…
Latin American Democracy: Emerging Reality or Endangered Species
1. Introduction, Richard L. Millett 2. Democratic Consolidation in Latin America? Jennifer Holmes 3. Measuring Democratic Political Culture in Latin America Orlando Perez 4. Latin American Democracy: How is it Viewed From the North? Ambler Moss 5. Latin American Democracy: The View from the South Francisco Rojas Aravena Part 2: The Status of Institutions 6. The Rule of Law in Latin America Luz E. Nagle 7. Executive-Legislative Relations and Democ…
Immigration Judges and U.S. Asylum Policy
Immigration Judges and U.S. Asylum Policy investigates hundreds of thousands of U.S. asylum cases with theoretical sophistication and empirical rigor, finding that immigration judges tend to assess legally relevant facts objectively while their decisions may be subjectively influenced by extralegal facts.
Leveling the Odds: The Effect of Quality Legal Representation in Cases of Asymmetrical Capability
How much does attorney quality influence the outcome of cases in which one litigant is significantly more capable than the other? Using a unique dataset of all asylum merits decision from 1990 to 2010, we find that high quality representation evens the odds for asylum applicants and that not being represented by legal counsel is actually better than being represented by a poor lawyer. In this analysis, we draw on a modified party capability theor…
Terrorism and Democratic Stability
Can terrorism and state violence cause democratic breakdowns? Although the origins of violence have been studied, only rarely are its consequences. And even when the consequences of violence are studied, its effects are usually limited to consideration of preexisting conflict that originally spawned the violence. In Terrorism and Democratic Stability, Holmes claims that to understand the consequences of violence on democratic stability, terrorism…
Vamos Para Rua! Taking to the Streets Protest in Brazil
The unprecedented protests that unfolded in June 2013 in Brazil, surprised even the most observant Brazilian scholars. A local conflict over the increase of public transportation fare took an unexpected turn and ignited a massive nationwide mobilization. These protests have perplexed many because Brazil was not experiencing the context of economic or political instabilities that are common to other countries around the world, where massive protes…
Opposition Support and the Experience of Violence Explain Colombian Peace Referendum Results
What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Initial analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect electoral outcomes. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to test links between referendum result and previous violence victimization, economic conditions, and support for Centro Democrático (the main part…
Translating Cameo verbs for automated coding of event data
The Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) framework is the industry standard for computerized event coding that produces massive data on political conflict at a global scale. However, despite their focus on conflict in foreign locations, most coding efforts have the limitation of exclusively relying on text written in English. This paper advances the frontier of computerized event coding by presenting the CAMEO Verb Translation Applic…
The Prevalence and Severity of Underreporting Bias in Machine- and Human-Coded Data
Textual data are plagued by underreporting bias. For example, news sources often fail to report human rights violations. Cook et al. propose a multi-source estimator to gauge, and to account for, the underreporting of state repression events within human codings of news texts produced by the Agence France-Presse and Associated Press. We evaluate this estimator with Monte Carlo experiments, and then use it to compare the prevalence and seriousness…
The Preferences of Political Elites and Humanitarian Immigration to the United States
Banks Miller a, Jennifer S. Holmes b, Linda Camp Keith c, The Preferences of Political Elites and Humanitarian Immigration to the United States, RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vol. 6, No. 3, The Legal Landscape of U.S. Immigration in the Twenty-First Century (November 2020), pp. 150-171
A hotspot analysis of critical hydrocarbons infrastructure in Colombia: ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) and Farc (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) attacks on Colombian pipelines
Political science (24 works) · Law (21 works) · Politics (16 works) · Sociology (15 works) · Law (14 works) · Economics (13 works) · Computer Science (10 works) · Political economy (8 works) · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance (7 works) · Criminology (7 works)