Simon van Norden
Biographic Data
| ID | 8880300 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Simon van Norden |
| GIVEN NAMES | Simon |
| FAMILY NAME | van Norden |
| SIGNATURE | VAN NORDEN S |
| AFFILIATIONS | HEC Montréal |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0145-4226 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 5 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 5 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1993 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2023 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
Employment reconciliation and nowcasting
We construct a latent employment estimate for the United States, which both reconciles the information from separate payroll and household surveys and incorporates the preliminary data revision process of the payroll data. We find that our reconciled latent employment series looks somewhat different than the initial release of payroll employment and is closer to the fully revised data that is benchmarked to a near census of employment. A real‐tim…
Can GDP Measurement Be Further Improved? Data Revision and Reconciliation
Recent years have seen many attempts to combine expenditure-side estimates of U.S. real output (GDE) growth with income-side estimates (GDI) to improve estimates of real GDP growth. We show how to incorporate information from multiple releases of noisy data to provide more precise estimates while avoiding some of the identifying assumptions required in earlier work. This relies on a new insight: using multiple data releases allows us to distingui…
Fiscal Forecasts at the Fomc
This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO’s forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables c…
The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
We examine the reliability of alternative output detrending methods, with special attention to the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap. We show that ex post revisions of the estimated gap are of the same order of magnitude as the estimated gap itself and that these revisions are highly persistent. Although important, the revision of published data is not the primary source of revisions in measured output gaps; the bulk of the proble…
The Predictability of Stock Market Regime
Simon van Norden, Huntley Schaller, The Predictability of Stock Market Regime: Evidence from the Toronto Stock Exchange, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, No. 3 (Aug., 1993), pp. 505-510
No prominent works on this page.
The Predictability of Stock Market Regime
Simon van Norden, Huntley Schaller, The Predictability of Stock Market Regime: Evidence from the Toronto Stock Exchange, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, No. 3 (Aug., 1993), pp. 505-510
The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
We examine the reliability of alternative output detrending methods, with special attention to the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap. We show that ex post revisions of the estimated gap are of the same order of magnitude as the estimated gap itself and that these revisions are highly persistent. Although important, the revision of published data is not the primary source of revisions in measured output gaps; the bulk of the proble…
Fiscal Forecasts at the Fomc
This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO’s forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables c…
Can GDP Measurement Be Further Improved? Data Revision and Reconciliation
Recent years have seen many attempts to combine expenditure-side estimates of U.S. real output (GDE) growth with income-side estimates (GDI) to improve estimates of real GDP growth. We show how to incorporate information from multiple releases of noisy data to provide more precise estimates while avoiding some of the identifying assumptions required in earlier work. This relies on a new insight: using multiple data releases allows us to distingui…
Employment reconciliation and nowcasting
We construct a latent employment estimate for the United States, which both reconciles the information from separate payroll and household surveys and incorporates the preliminary data revision process of the payroll data. We find that our reconciled latent employment series looks somewhat different than the initial release of payroll employment and is closer to the fully revised data that is benchmarked to a near census of employment. A real‐tim…
Economics (5 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (4 works) · Econometrics (3 works) · Geography (3 works) · Computer Science (2 works) · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth (2 works) · Inflation (cosmology) (2 works) · Mathematics (2 works) · Monetary economics (2 works) · Monetary policy (2 works)