Fiscal Forecasts at the Fomc
Evidence from the Greenbooks
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19317929 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Dean Croushore (0000-0002-3199-8892, University of Richmond), Simon van Norden (0000-0003-0145-4226, HEC Montréal) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 100 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 933-945 |
| Publication date | 2018-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Review of Economics and Statistics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0034-6535 • E-ISSN: 1530-9142 |
| Publisher | MIT Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1162/rest_a_00664 |
| OpenAlex | W2403246503 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 21 |
This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO’s forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables can also account for a significant fraction of the “exogenous” changes in the federal funds rate target that Romer and Romer (2004) studied, consistent with the board’s statements on the importance of fiscal policy
Economics · Federal funds · Fiscal policy · Inflation (cosmology) · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Monetary policy · Output gap · Romer · Unemployment · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1.33 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |