Jens Koed Madsen
Biographic Data
| ID | 940197 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jens Koed Madsen |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jens Koed |
| FAMILY NAME | Madsen |
| SIGNATURE | MADSEN J K |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Oxford |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2405-8496 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 10 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 11 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 10 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2018 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Belief polarization can be caused by disagreements over source independence: Computational modelling, experimental evidence, and applicability to real-world politics
A large literature debates whether belief polarization, in both experiments and real-world political opinion data, is the result of biased forms of reasoning like biased assimilation and motivated reasoning, or if it can be caused by rational reasoning. We present evidence for the plausibility of a novel Bayesian mechanism of experimental and real-world political belief polarization involving perceptions of source independence. We show, using a n…
Modelling Adaptive and Anticipatory Human Decision-Making in Complex Human-Environment Systems
To effectively manage complex human-environment fisheries systems, it is necessary to understand the psychology of fisher agents. While bio-economic models typically provide simple, abstract approaches for human behaviour (e.g. fully informed profit maximisers), fisher agents are of course neither simple nor perfect. Imperfections of learning, memory, and information availability, combined with the diversity of value preferences within population…
To trust or not to trust? How Hong Kong protesters build and maintain trust in a leaderless movement
Protesters in leaderless movements face serious challenges when searching for reliable and trustworthy information in risky environments. Without formal structures to validate information, protestors are left to their own to evaluate the trustworthiness of information in a context where fake social media accounts and deception is possible. We interview protesters from the Hong Kong Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement to uncover how they …
Targeting Your Preferences: Modelling Micro-Targeting for an Increasingly Diverse Electorate
The use of data to inform and run political campaigning has become an inescapable trend in recent years. In attempting to persuade an electorate, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) have been employed to great e ect through the use of tailored messaging and selective targeting. Here we investigate the capacity of MTCs to deal with the diversity of political preferences across an electorate. More precisely, via an Agent-Based Model we simulate various…
False prophets and Cassandra's curse: The role of credibility in belief updating
Calibrating Agent-Based Models with Linear Regressions
In this paper, we introduce a simple way to parametrize simulation models by using regularized linear regression. Regressions bypass the three major challenges of calibrating by minimization: selecting the summary statistics, defining the distance function and minimizing it numerically. By substituting regression with classification, we can extend this approach to model selection. We present five example estimations: a statistical fit, a biologic…
Simple Adaptive Rules Describe Fishing Behaviour Better than Perfect Rationality in the US West Coast Groundfish Fishery
Analytic Versus Computational Cognitive Models: Agent-Based Modeling as a Tool in Cognitive Sciences
Computational cognitive models typically focus on individual behavior in isolation. Models frequently employ closed-form solutions in which a state of the system can be computed if all parameters and functions are known. However, closed-form models are challenged when used to predict behaviors for dynamic, adaptive, and heterogeneous agents. Such systems are complex and typically cannot be predicted or explained by analytical solutions without ap…
Voter Reasoning Bias When Evaluating Statements from Female and Male Political Candidates
The article examines whether female political candidates are disfavored in terms of persuasiveness potential based on their expertise and trustworthiness. Using a Bayesian argumentation paradigm in which candidates endorse policies, this study shows that male voters regard female candidates as less persuasive than male candidates. A controlled between-subjects experiment among 202 potential voters in the United States suggests that female electio…
A computational approach to managing coupled human–environmental systems: The Poseidon model of ocean fisheries
Sustainable management of complex human–environment systems, and the essential services they provide, remains a major challenge, felt from local to global scales. These systems are typically highly dynamic and hard to predict, particularly in the context of rapid environmental change, where novel sets of conditions drive coupled socio-economic-environmental responses. Faced with these challenges, our tools for policy development, while informed b…
Voter Reasoning Bias When Evaluating Statements from Female and Male Political Candidates
The article examines whether female political candidates are disfavored in terms of persuasiveness potential based on their expertise and trustworthiness. Using a Bayesian argumentation paradigm in which candidates endorse policies, this study shows that male voters regard female candidates as less persuasive than male candidates. A controlled between-subjects experiment among 202 potential voters in the United States suggests that female electio…
Analytic Versus Computational Cognitive Models: Agent-Based Modeling as a Tool in Cognitive Sciences
Computational cognitive models typically focus on individual behavior in isolation. Models frequently employ closed-form solutions in which a state of the system can be computed if all parameters and functions are known. However, closed-form models are challenged when used to predict behaviors for dynamic, adaptive, and heterogeneous agents. Such systems are complex and typically cannot be predicted or explained by analytical solutions without ap…
To trust or not to trust? How Hong Kong protesters build and maintain trust in a leaderless movement
Protesters in leaderless movements face serious challenges when searching for reliable and trustworthy information in risky environments. Without formal structures to validate information, protestors are left to their own to evaluate the trustworthiness of information in a context where fake social media accounts and deception is possible. We interview protesters from the Hong Kong Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement to uncover how they …
A computational approach to managing coupled human–environmental systems: The Poseidon model of ocean fisheries
Sustainable management of complex human–environment systems, and the essential services they provide, remains a major challenge, felt from local to global scales. These systems are typically highly dynamic and hard to predict, particularly in the context of rapid environmental change, where novel sets of conditions drive coupled socio-economic-environmental responses. Faced with these challenges, our tools for policy development, while informed b…
A computational approach to managing coupled human–environmental systems: The Poseidon model of ocean fisheries
Sustainable management of complex human–environment systems, and the essential services they provide, remains a major challenge, felt from local to global scales. These systems are typically highly dynamic and hard to predict, particularly in the context of rapid environmental change, where novel sets of conditions drive coupled socio-economic-environmental responses. Faced with these challenges, our tools for policy development, while informed b…
Analytic Versus Computational Cognitive Models: Agent-Based Modeling as a Tool in Cognitive Sciences
Computational cognitive models typically focus on individual behavior in isolation. Models frequently employ closed-form solutions in which a state of the system can be computed if all parameters and functions are known. However, closed-form models are challenged when used to predict behaviors for dynamic, adaptive, and heterogeneous agents. Such systems are complex and typically cannot be predicted or explained by analytical solutions without ap…
Voter Reasoning Bias When Evaluating Statements from Female and Male Political Candidates
The article examines whether female political candidates are disfavored in terms of persuasiveness potential based on their expertise and trustworthiness. Using a Bayesian argumentation paradigm in which candidates endorse policies, this study shows that male voters regard female candidates as less persuasive than male candidates. A controlled between-subjects experiment among 202 potential voters in the United States suggests that female electio…
False prophets and Cassandra's curse: The role of credibility in belief updating
Calibrating Agent-Based Models with Linear Regressions
In this paper, we introduce a simple way to parametrize simulation models by using regularized linear regression. Regressions bypass the three major challenges of calibrating by minimization: selecting the summary statistics, defining the distance function and minimizing it numerically. By substituting regression with classification, we can extend this approach to model selection. We present five example estimations: a statistical fit, a biologic…
Simple Adaptive Rules Describe Fishing Behaviour Better than Perfect Rationality in the US West Coast Groundfish Fishery
Targeting Your Preferences: Modelling Micro-Targeting for an Increasingly Diverse Electorate
The use of data to inform and run political campaigning has become an inescapable trend in recent years. In attempting to persuade an electorate, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) have been employed to great e ect through the use of tailored messaging and selective targeting. Here we investigate the capacity of MTCs to deal with the diversity of political preferences across an electorate. More precisely, via an Agent-Based Model we simulate various…
Modelling Adaptive and Anticipatory Human Decision-Making in Complex Human-Environment Systems
To effectively manage complex human-environment fisheries systems, it is necessary to understand the psychology of fisher agents. While bio-economic models typically provide simple, abstract approaches for human behaviour (e.g. fully informed profit maximisers), fisher agents are of course neither simple nor perfect. Imperfections of learning, memory, and information availability, combined with the diversity of value preferences within population…
To trust or not to trust? How Hong Kong protesters build and maintain trust in a leaderless movement
Protesters in leaderless movements face serious challenges when searching for reliable and trustworthy information in risky environments. Without formal structures to validate information, protestors are left to their own to evaluate the trustworthiness of information in a context where fake social media accounts and deception is possible. We interview protesters from the Hong Kong Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement to uncover how they …
Belief polarization can be caused by disagreements over source independence: Computational modelling, experimental evidence, and applicability to real-world politics
A large literature debates whether belief polarization, in both experiments and real-world political opinion data, is the result of biased forms of reasoning like biased assimilation and motivated reasoning, or if it can be caused by rational reasoning. We present evidence for the plausibility of a novel Bayesian mechanism of experimental and real-world political belief polarization involving perceptions of source independence. We show, using a n…
Computer Science (6 works) · Psychology (5 works) · Artificial Intelligence (3 works) · Economics (3 works) · Epistemology (3 works) · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence (3 works) · Social Psychology (3 works) · Business (2 works) · Economic and Environmental Valuation (2 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (2 works)