Ray C Fair
Biographic Data
| ID | 961589 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Ray C Fair |
| GIVEN NAMES | Ray C |
| FAMILY NAME | Fair |
| SIGNATURE | FAIR R C |
| AFFILIATIONS | Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9741-4300 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 24 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 116 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 24 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1971 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2018 |
| H-INDEX | 5 |
Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events
This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/ quadratic (LQ) model and a nonparametric model. Two estimation methods are used: (a) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and (b) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world …
Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections
This paper provides an interpretation of the uncertainty that exists at the beginning of the day of an election as to who will win. It is based on the theory that there are a number of possible conditions of nature that can exist on election day, of which one is drawn. Political betting markets like Intrade provide a way of trying to estimate this uncertainty. It is argued that polling standard errors do not provide estimates of this type of unce…
Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations
Three vote‐share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on‐term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916–2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the econ…
Testing the Nairu Model for the United States
This paper tests, using U.S. data, the dynamics implied by the NAIRU view of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate. The results are somewhat sensitive to the measure of inflation used, but they generally reject the dynamics. An alternative way of thinking about the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate is suggested
Testing Macroeconomic Models
The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1992 Update
Econometrics and Presidential Elections
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast
Testing Macroeconometric Models
Journal Article Testing Macroeconometric Models. Get access Testing Macroeconometric Models. By (RAY C.) Fair. (Cambridge, Mass. and London: Harvard University Press, 1994. Pp. xvii + 421. £35.95 hardback, US $53.93 hardback. ISBN 0 674 87503 6.) Peter N. Smith Peter N. Smith University of Warwick Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 433, 1 November 1995, Pages 1669–1671,…
How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down
Abrtmcr-An important question in the study of aging concerns the rate at which people physically deteriorate with age.HOW much, for example.CB~ be physically expected of, say, a healthy, non-injured 75.year-old man or woman relative to what be or she could do at ape 4% This paper applies econometric techniques to data on men's track and field and road racing remrds by age to estimate the rate at which men sknv down with asc.Eight track.eight fiel…
Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior
This paper tests for the existence of expectational effects in very disaggregate price equations. Price equations are estimated using monthly data for each of 40 products. The dynamic specification of the equations is also tested, including whether the equations should be specified in level
The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
The informational content of different forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We use the procedure in Fair and Shiller (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ant. forecasts: the American Statistical Association and National Bureau of Economic Research Survey (ASA), Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), and Wharton Economic Forecasting Associates (U…
The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 Update
International Evidence on the Demand for Money
One of the current questions in the literature on the demand for money is whether the adjustment of actual to desired money holdings is in nominal or real terms.This paper describes a simple procedure than can be used to test the nominal against the real hypothesis.The test is carried out for 27 countries.The paper also tests the structural stability of the demand for money equations and the correctness of the dynamic specification.The results ar…
Specification, Estimation and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models
Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models
Journal Article Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models Get access Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models. By RAY C. FAIR. (Cambridge, Massachusetts and London: Harvard University Press, 1984. Pp. 479. £28.00 hardback.) C. R. Bean C. R. Bean London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 95, Issue 378, 1 June 19…
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results
In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election
Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries
This paper provides quantitative estimates of the output, price, interest rate, and rate linkages among a number of countries. The econometric model that is used for this purpose is described in Fair (1981), and the present paper is an extension of this work. The linkages are examined by changing various policy variables and observing the resulting change in the endogenous variables. The model is also used to estimate what is called the exchange …
An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models
The primary purpose of this paper is to compare the predictive accuracy of four models: (1) Sargent's classical macroeconometric model, (2) Sim's six-equation unconstrained vector autoregression model, (3) a "naive" eighth-order autoregressive model, and (4) my model. A recent method that I have proposed for estimating the predictive accuracy of a model, which takes account of the four main sources of uncertainty of a forecast, is used for the co…
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President
InttwIttctionN important question in political economy A.' ts how, if at all, economic events affect voting behavior.Although there is by now a fairly large literature devoted to this question,' there is no widely agreed upon answer.Kramer (1971), for example, concluded from his analysis of U.S. voting behavior that economic fluctuations have an important influence on congressional elections, whereas Stigler (1973) concluded that they do not.This…
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
In this paper a model is developed that explains the allocation of an individual's time among work and two types of leisure activities: time spent with spouse, and time spent with paramour. Data from two recent magazine surveys are available that can be used to test the predictions of the model regarding the determinants of time spent with paramour. The results of estimating the equation explaining time spent with paramour, by the Tobit estimator…
A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model
Journal Article Model of Macroeconomic Activity Get access Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume 1: the theoretical model. By R. C. Fair. (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974. Pp. xiv + 226. £7.00.) K. F. Wallis K. F. Wallis London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 86, Issue 341, 1 March 1976, Pages 126–128, https://doi.org/10.2307/2230964 Published: 01 March …
A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy
Journal Article A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy Get access A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy. By Ray C. Fair. (Lexington, Massachusetts: Heath Lexington Books, 1971. Pp. xiii + 264. $12.50.) G. R. Fisher G. R. Fisher University of Southampton Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 83, Issue 330, 1 June 1973, Pages 555–558, https://do…
Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-Regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables
T HE purpose of this paper is to point out how the efficient instrumental-variables technique discussed by Brundy and Jorgenson (1971) can be modified to take into account auto-regressive properties of the error terms. The limited-information and full-information estimators proposed in this paper are consistent and have the same asymptotic distributions as the limited-information and full-information maximum likelihood estimators, respectively. T…
Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion
The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 Update
Econometrics and Presidential Elections
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast
The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1992 Update
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
In this paper a model is developed that explains the allocation of an individual's time among work and two types of leisure activities: time spent with spouse, and time spent with paramour. Data from two recent magazine surveys are available that can be used to test the predictions of the model regarding the determinants of time spent with paramour. The results of estimating the equation explaining time spent with paramour, by the Tobit estimator…
Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations
Three vote‐share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on‐term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916–2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the econ…
A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy
Journal Article A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy Get access A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy. By Ray C. Fair. (Lexington, Massachusetts: Heath Lexington Books, 1971. Pp. xiii + 264. $12.50.) G. R. Fisher G. R. Fisher University of Southampton Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 83, Issue 330, 1 June 1973, Pages 555–558, https://do…
Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models
Journal Article Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models Get access Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models. By RAY C. FAIR. (Cambridge, Massachusetts and London: Harvard University Press, 1984. Pp. 479. £28.00 hardback.) C. R. Bean C. R. Bean London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 95, Issue 378, 1 June 19…
An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models
The primary purpose of this paper is to compare the predictive accuracy of four models: (1) Sargent's classical macroeconometric model, (2) Sim's six-equation unconstrained vector autoregression model, (3) a "naive" eighth-order autoregressive model, and (4) my model. A recent method that I have proposed for estimating the predictive accuracy of a model, which takes account of the four main sources of uncertainty of a forecast, is used for the co…
Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries
This paper provides quantitative estimates of the output, price, interest rate, and rate linkages among a number of countries. The econometric model that is used for this purpose is described in Fair (1981), and the present paper is an extension of this work. The linkages are examined by changing various policy variables and observing the resulting change in the endogenous variables. The model is also used to estimate what is called the exchange …
Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion
Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-Regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables
T HE purpose of this paper is to point out how the efficient instrumental-variables technique discussed by Brundy and Jorgenson (1971) can be modified to take into account auto-regressive properties of the error terms. The limited-information and full-information estimators proposed in this paper are consistent and have the same asymptotic distributions as the limited-information and full-information maximum likelihood estimators, respectively. T…
A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy
Journal Article A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy Get access A Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy. By Ray C. Fair. (Lexington, Massachusetts: Heath Lexington Books, 1971. Pp. xiii + 264. $12.50.) G. R. Fisher G. R. Fisher University of Southampton Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 83, Issue 330, 1 June 1973, Pages 555–558, https://do…
A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model
Journal Article Model of Macroeconomic Activity Get access Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume 1: the theoretical model. By R. C. Fair. (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974. Pp. xiv + 226. £7.00.) K. F. Wallis K. F. Wallis London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 86, Issue 341, 1 March 1976, Pages 126–128, https://doi.org/10.2307/2230964 Published: 01 March …
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President
InttwIttctionN important question in political economy A.' ts how, if at all, economic events affect voting behavior.Although there is by now a fairly large literature devoted to this question,' there is no widely agreed upon answer.Kramer (1971), for example, concluded from his analysis of U.S. voting behavior that economic fluctuations have an important influence on congressional elections, whereas Stigler (1973) concluded that they do not.This…
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
In this paper a model is developed that explains the allocation of an individual's time among work and two types of leisure activities: time spent with spouse, and time spent with paramour. Data from two recent magazine surveys are available that can be used to test the predictions of the model regarding the determinants of time spent with paramour. The results of estimating the equation explaining time spent with paramour, by the Tobit estimator…
An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models
The primary purpose of this paper is to compare the predictive accuracy of four models: (1) Sargent's classical macroeconometric model, (2) Sim's six-equation unconstrained vector autoregression model, (3) a "naive" eighth-order autoregressive model, and (4) my model. A recent method that I have proposed for estimating the predictive accuracy of a model, which takes account of the four main sources of uncertainty of a forecast, is used for the co…
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results
In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election
Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries
This paper provides quantitative estimates of the output, price, interest rate, and rate linkages among a number of countries. The econometric model that is used for this purpose is described in Fair (1981), and the present paper is an extension of this work. The linkages are examined by changing various policy variables and observing the resulting change in the endogenous variables. The model is also used to estimate what is called the exchange …
Specification, Estimation and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models
Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models
Journal Article Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models Get access Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models. By RAY C. FAIR. (Cambridge, Massachusetts and London: Harvard University Press, 1984. Pp. 479. £28.00 hardback.) C. R. Bean C. R. Bean London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 95, Issue 378, 1 June 19…
International Evidence on the Demand for Money
One of the current questions in the literature on the demand for money is whether the adjustment of actual to desired money holdings is in nominal or real terms.This paper describes a simple procedure than can be used to test the nominal against the real hypothesis.The test is carried out for 27 countries.The paper also tests the structural stability of the demand for money equations and the correctness of the dynamic specification.The results ar…
The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 Update
The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
The informational content of different forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We use the procedure in Fair and Shiller (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ant. forecasts: the American Statistical Association and National Bureau of Economic Research Survey (ASA), Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), and Wharton Economic Forecasting Associates (U…
Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior
This paper tests for the existence of expectational effects in very disaggregate price equations. Price equations are estimated using monthly data for each of 40 products. The dynamic specification of the equations is also tested, including whether the equations should be specified in level
How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down
Abrtmcr-An important question in the study of aging concerns the rate at which people physically deteriorate with age.HOW much, for example.CB~ be physically expected of, say, a healthy, non-injured 75.year-old man or woman relative to what be or she could do at ape 4% This paper applies econometric techniques to data on men's track and field and road racing remrds by age to estimate the rate at which men sknv down with asc.Eight track.eight fiel…
Testing Macroeconometric Models
Journal Article Testing Macroeconometric Models. Get access Testing Macroeconometric Models. By (RAY C.) Fair. (Cambridge, Mass. and London: Harvard University Press, 1994. Pp. xvii + 421. £35.95 hardback, US $53.93 hardback. ISBN 0 674 87503 6.) Peter N. Smith Peter N. Smith University of Warwick Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 433, 1 November 1995, Pages 1669–1671,…
Testing Macroeconomic Models
The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1992 Update
Econometrics and Presidential Elections
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast
Testing the Nairu Model for the United States
This paper tests, using U.S. data, the dynamics implied by the NAIRU view of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate. The results are somewhat sensitive to the measure of inflation used, but they generally reject the dynamics. An alternative way of thinking about the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate is suggested
Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections
This paper provides an interpretation of the uncertainty that exists at the beginning of the day of an election as to who will win. It is based on the theory that there are a number of possible conditions of nature that can exist on election day, of which one is drawn. Political betting markets like Intrade provide a way of trying to estimate this uncertainty. It is argued that polling standard errors do not provide estimates of this type of unce…
Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations
Three vote‐share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on‐term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916–2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the econ…
Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events
This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/ quadratic (LQ) model and a nonparametric model. Two estimation methods are used: (a) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and (b) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world …
Economics (22 works) · Econometrics (16 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (13 works) · Computer Science (6 works) · Economic theories and models (6 works) · Macroeconomics (6 works) · Mathematics (6 works) · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy (5 works) · Political science (5 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (4 works)