Econometrics and Presidential Elections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4029610 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ray C Fair (0000-0002-9741-4300, Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut., corresponding author) |
| Year | 1996 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 89-102 |
| Publication date | 1996-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965 |
| Publisher | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/jep.10.3.89 |
| OpenAlex | W2050186023 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 58 |
| References cited | 12 |
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast
Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Macroeconomics · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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Presidential Voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election
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Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections
On the optimality of policy choices in the face of biased beliefs, retrospective voting and the down-up problem
Dictating play to the left wing
US Domestic Politics and International Cooperation, 1953–1998
Voting for president
State-level personality and presidential vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections
Analysis of California propositions
Voting for president in the U.S.–Mexico border region
Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes
Religious riots and electoral politics in India
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A literature review on political uncertainty and stock market behaviour
Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948-2004
The Historical Significance of Economic Voting, 1872–1996
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Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
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Business cycle and political election outcomes
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Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament
Flexible pensions for politicians
Bread and the attrition of power
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The impact of campaign expenditures on political competition in the French legislative elections of 1993
The Combined Effect of Advertising and News Coverage in the Mexican Presidential Campaign of 2000
Elections and Markets
Economic Conditions Affect Support for Prime Minister Parties in Scandinavia
All the prime minister’s glory? Leader effects and accountability of prime ministers in parliamentary elections
Economic Growth and Political Approval Ratings
Forecasting the Vote
Changing Economic Openness for Environmental Policy Convergence
Popularity and Vote
Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes
How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy
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The Ghanaian Voter and the 2008 General Election
Using Online Search Traffic to Predict US Presidential Elections
Economics of voting in post-communist countries
Os Ciclos Político-Econômicos e os Gastos dos Estados no Brasil
The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988-96
All in the Family
An economic theory of democracy
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President
Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964
The effect of economic events on votes for president
The effect of economic events on votes for president
An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes
The 1992 Vote for President Clinton
Bridging the Gap Between the Public's and Economists' Views of the Economy
| Unique citing works | 58 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,71 |
| Citation span | 1992 - 2026 (35) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 52 |