Chris D Jones
Biographic Data
| ID | 9750140 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Chris D Jones |
| GIVEN NAMES | Chris D |
| FAMILY NAME | Jones |
| SIGNATURE | JONES C D |
| AFFILIATIONS | Met Office |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7141-9285 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 35 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 39 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 35 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1977 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Reflections on Peter Nagel’s article: Problematising the Divinity of Jesus: Why Jesus is not Theos – including a short history of the doctrine of the Trinity
This is a response to an article written by South African New Testament scholar, Peter Nagel. The article draws on the thoughts of another South African New Testament scholar Andries van Aarde and of German theologian Bernhard Lohse, on the history of the doctrine of the Trinity. Concluding observations include inquiring as to how the church will effectively address this type of study in its deliberations and decisions
Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization
The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed re…
Ipcc, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang…
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component of the SYR which provides a policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary of the SYR. It is consistent with the Sections of the SYR and is approved line by line by the Governments at a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Ipcc, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. L…
The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of …
Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO 2 emissions
Signatories to the Paris Agreement have pledged to keep global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Beyond over-shooting Paris Agreement warming levels followed by net negative emissions, achieving a state of net zero carbon dioxide emissions is required to satisfy Paris Agreement warming goals. Research on climate changes under net zero CO 2 emissions is very limited to d…
Nitrogen cycle impacts on CO 2 fertilisation and climate forcing of land carbon stores
Anthropogenic fossil fuel burning increases atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, which is adjusting the climate system. The direct impact of rising CO 2 levels and climate feedback alters the terrestrial carbon stores. Land stores are presently increasing, offsetting a substantial fraction of CO 2 emissions. Less understood is how this human-induced carbon cycle perturbation interacts with other terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. The…
Timing of State and Territorial Covid-19 Stay-at-Home Orders and Changes in Population Movement — United States, March 1–May 31, 2020
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is thought to spread from person to person primarily by the respiratory route and mainly through close contact (1). Community mitigation strategies can lower the risk for disease transmission by limiting or preventing person-to-person interactions (2). U.S. states and territories began implementing various community mitigation policies in March 2020. One widely implemented str…
The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty
Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal
Soil carbon sequestration simulated in CMIP6-Lumip models: Implications for climatic mitigation
Land-use change affects both the quality and quantity of soil organic carbon (SOC) and leads to changes in ecosystem functions such as productivity and environmental regulation. Future changes in SOC are, however, highly uncertain owing to its heterogeneity and complexity. In this study, we analyzed the outputs of simulations of SOC stock by Earth system models (ESMs), most of which are participants in the Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project. …
Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets
To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models provide a means to quantify the link from emissions to global climate change. Using the concept of TCRE—the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions—we can estimate the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5 or 2 °C. But the uncertainty…
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere,ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – isimportant to better understand the global carbon cycle, support thedevelopment of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here wedescribe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components ofthe global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Foss…
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics
Increasing atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH 4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999–2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH 4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural …
CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C
Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Simulations using an ensemble of the JULES-IMOGEN intermediate complexity c…
Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes
Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequ…
Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossilfuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change inthe future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets toachieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under lowemissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet th…
Research priorities for negative emissions
Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (CDR)—also known as ‘negative emissions’—features \nprominently in most 2 °Cscenarios and has been under increased scrutiny by scientists, citizens, and \npolicymakers. Critics argue that ‘negative emission technologies’ (NETs) are insufficiently mature to \nrely on them for climate stabilization. Some even argue that 2 °Cis no longer feasible or might have \nunacceptable social and environmental costs. …
The refugee crisis in Samos, Greece
In recent weeks there have been increasing numbers of refugees -mainly from Syria but also from Afghanistan and Africa -coming to Samos in Greece. For the refugees already here and those who will be arriving over the coming months, the prospects look very bleak. At the time of writing -August 2015 -there are around 500 refugees in the detention centre, including over 20 young children. Last week, the number was over 700. This is in a centre that …
Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis
The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emissio…
High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes
Unknowns in future global warming are usually assumed to arise from uncertainties either in the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or in the sensitivity of the climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Characterizing the additional uncertainty in relating CO2 emissions to atmospheric concentrations has relied on either a small number of complex models with diversity in process representations, or simple models. To date, t…
Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO 2 concentration changes
We use the HadGEM2-ES Earth System model to examine the degree of reversibility of a wide range of components of the Earth System under idealized climate change scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is gradually increased to four times the pre-industrial level and then reduced at a similar rate from several points along this trajectory. While some modelled quantities respond almost immediately to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, ot…
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005–2100) are being provided by four Integrated …
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming
Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at \npresent rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two \ndegrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few \ndecades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous \ntemperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to…
Validation of the Flow Theory in an On-Site Whitewater Kayaking Setting
The validation of the flow theory in an on-site whitewater setting is examined. A-priori hypotheses emphasized 3 concerns: (1) the relationship between a four channel model of flow and specific levels of flow indicators, (2) differences in the explanatory power of the four channel model and an original model of flow, and (3) the relationship between river difficulty and the frequencies of four channels (flow, anxiety, apathy, and boredom). On-sit…
Soviet Hegemony in Eastern Europe: The Dynamics of Political Autonomy and Military Intervention
Most Western observers have concluded that in the conflicts between the U.S.S.R. and the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe, the Soviets resorted to military intervention only when certain ideological or strategic issues were at stake. This study suggests that in the conflicts between the leaders of the CPSU and the leaders of the Communist Parties of Yugoslavia, Poland, Albania, Rumania, and Czechoslovakia there was only one real issue at stake…
An Empirical Comparison of the Four Channel Flow Model and Adventure Experience Paradigm
The objective of this study was to conduct empirical comparisons between two models of optimal experience within an on-site whitewater kayaking setting using a modification of the Experience Sampling Method. Four concerns are examined: (1) differences in explanatory power between the four channel flow model and the Adventure Experience Paradigm, (2) convergent validity among measures used to determine conditions within these models, (3) differenc…
Evaluating the Construct Validity of Sense of Belonging as a Measure of Landscape Perception
The construct validity of measures of sense of belonging to a recreational landscape is examined. The evaluation of construct validity emphasizes two concerns: (1) the empirical relationship between measures of two theoretically distinct concepts (belonging and visual preference); (2) the empirical relationship between measures of these concepts and theoretically relevant visitor characteristics. Visitor responses to photo-based measures of belon…
Soviet Influence in Eastern Europe
Authoritarian Politics in Communist Europe: Uniformity and Diversity in One-Party States
Soviet Hegemony in Eastern Europe: The Dynamics of Political Autonomy and Military Intervention
Most Western observers have concluded that in the conflicts between the U.S.S.R. and the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe, the Soviets resorted to military intervention only when certain ideological or strategic issues were at stake. This study suggests that in the conflicts between the leaders of the CPSU and the leaders of the Communist Parties of Yugoslavia, Poland, Albania, Rumania, and Czechoslovakia there was only one real issue at stake…
Authoritarian Politics in Communist Europe: Uniformity and Diversity in One-Party States
The Soviet Soldier: Soviet Military Management at the Troop Level.Herbert Goldhamer
Soviet Influence in Eastern Europe: Political Autonomy and the Warsaw Pact
Soviet Influence in Eastern Europe
Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model
Validation of the Flow Theory in an On-Site Whitewater Kayaking Setting
The validation of the flow theory in an on-site whitewater setting is examined. A-priori hypotheses emphasized 3 concerns: (1) the relationship between a four channel model of flow and specific levels of flow indicators, (2) differences in the explanatory power of the four channel model and an original model of flow, and (3) the relationship between river difficulty and the frequencies of four channels (flow, anxiety, apathy, and boredom). On-sit…
Evaluating the Construct Validity of Sense of Belonging as a Measure of Landscape Perception
The construct validity of measures of sense of belonging to a recreational landscape is examined. The evaluation of construct validity emphasizes two concerns: (1) the empirical relationship between measures of two theoretically distinct concepts (belonging and visual preference); (2) the empirical relationship between measures of these concepts and theoretically relevant visitor characteristics. Visitor responses to photo-based measures of belon…
An Empirical Comparison of the Four Channel Flow Model and Adventure Experience Paradigm
The objective of this study was to conduct empirical comparisons between two models of optimal experience within an on-site whitewater kayaking setting using a modification of the Experience Sampling Method. Four concerns are examined: (1) differences in explanatory power between the four channel flow model and the Adventure Experience Paradigm, (2) convergent validity among measures used to determine conditions within these models, (3) differenc…
What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy
Global policy targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions are being negotiated. The amount of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is controlled by carbon cycle processes in the ocean and on land. These processes are themselves affected by climate. The resulting 'climate-carbon cycle feedback' has recently been quantified, but the policy implications have not. Using a scheme to emulate the range of state-of-the-art model results…
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming
Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at \npresent rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two \ndegrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few \ndecades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous \ntemperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to…
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005–2100) are being provided by four Integrated …
High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes
Unknowns in future global warming are usually assumed to arise from uncertainties either in the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or in the sensitivity of the climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Characterizing the additional uncertainty in relating CO2 emissions to atmospheric concentrations has relied on either a small number of complex models with diversity in process representations, or simple models. To date, t…
Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO 2 concentration changes
We use the HadGEM2-ES Earth System model to examine the degree of reversibility of a wide range of components of the Earth System under idealized climate change scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is gradually increased to four times the pre-industrial level and then reduced at a similar rate from several points along this trajectory. While some modelled quantities respond almost immediately to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, ot…
Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis
The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emissio…
The refugee crisis in Samos, Greece
In recent weeks there have been increasing numbers of refugees -mainly from Syria but also from Afghanistan and Africa -coming to Samos in Greece. For the refugees already here and those who will be arriving over the coming months, the prospects look very bleak. At the time of writing -August 2015 -there are around 500 refugees in the detention centre, including over 20 young children. Last week, the number was over 700. This is in a centre that …
Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes
Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequ…
Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossilfuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change inthe future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets toachieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under lowemissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet th…
Research priorities for negative emissions
Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (CDR)—also known as ‘negative emissions’—features \nprominently in most 2 °Cscenarios and has been under increased scrutiny by scientists, citizens, and \npolicymakers. Critics argue that ‘negative emission technologies’ (NETs) are insufficiently mature to \nrely on them for climate stabilization. Some even argue that 2 °Cis no longer feasible or might have \nunacceptable social and environmental costs. …
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics
Increasing atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH 4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999–2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH 4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural …
CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C
Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Simulations using an ensemble of the JULES-IMOGEN intermediate complexity c…
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere,ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – isimportant to better understand the global carbon cycle, support thedevelopment of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here wedescribe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components ofthe global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Foss…
Timing of State and Territorial Covid-19 Stay-at-Home Orders and Changes in Population Movement — United States, March 1–May 31, 2020
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is thought to spread from person to person primarily by the respiratory route and mainly through close contact (1). Community mitigation strategies can lower the risk for disease transmission by limiting or preventing person-to-person interactions (2). U.S. states and territories began implementing various community mitigation policies in March 2020. One widely implemented str…
Environmental Science (23 works) · Climate change (22 works) · Greenhouse gas (17 works) · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics (16 works) · Climatology (16 works) · Geography (15 works) · Atmospheric sciences (14 works) · Climate model (13 works) · Global warming (13 works) · Economics (12 works)