Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544965 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Andrew H MacDougall (0000-0001-7899-9940, corresponding author), Joeri Rogelj (0000-0003-2056-9061), Chris Jones (0000-0002-5044-1336), Chris D Jones (0000-0002-7141-9285), Spencer Liddicoat (0000-0002-5145-7153), Spencer K Liddicoat, Giacomo Grassi (0000-0003-0650-0391) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Pages | 074065-074065 |
| Publication date | 2024-06-21 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab1 |
| OpenAlex | W4399908112 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 32 |
The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed requires rigour. Here CMIP6 simulations of peak-and-decline scenarios are used to examine the time needed to robustly detect three climate milestones: (1) the slowdown of global warming; (2) the end of global surface temperature increase; and (3) peak concentration of CO 2 . It is estimated that it will take 40 to 60 years after a simulated slowdown in warming rate, to robustly detect ( > 95 % change) the signal in the global average temperature record. Detecting when warming has stopped will also be difficult and it takes until the mid 22nd century to have enough data to conclude warming has stopped. Detecting that CO 2 concentration has peaked is far easier and a drop in CO 2 concentration of 3 ppm is consistent with a greater than 99% chance that CO 2 has peaked in all scenarios examined. Thus it is likely that as the rate of CO 2 emissions is reduced, and net-zero emissions is approached, interpreting the global temperature record will become difficult—with a high potential to create confusion amongst policy makers and the general public
Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Environmental resource management · Path (computing · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance · Geology · Oceanography
Scientists rise up against statistical significance
Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions
Net-zero emissions targets are vague
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement
Global temperature evolution
Net zero targets in science and policy
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |