Julia Zinkina
Biographic Data
| ID | 98029 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Julia Zinkina |
| GIVEN NAMES | Julia |
| FAMILY NAME | Zinkina |
| SIGNATURE | ZINKINA J |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0524-2140 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 26 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 41 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 26 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2011 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Alloparenting as a Factor of the Persistently High Fertility Rates in Central Africa
The high fertility rates that persist in Tropical African countries are a kind of anomaly, since other developing countries had lower fertility rates when having similar socio-economic development indicators — phenomenon dubbed “African pronatalism” in Western demography. Meanwhile, the lag in fertility transition contributed greatly to Africa's economic backwardness since independence, which is why the study of “African pronatalism”, the nature …
Why Do Revolutions Tend to Become Less Violent: Some Explanations of the Global Trend
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ones, whereas autocratic regimes in most societies gave way to anocratic and democratic…
On coupvolution: A type of revolutionary episodes in the modern West African context
The theory of revolutions has faced major challenges, one of the most important being how to conceptualize revolutions. The theory currently needs novel foci. One potential novel concept is "coupvolution," which can be defined as a type of revolutionary events with elements of both a coup and a revolution. We highlight the importance of a recent failed coupvolution in Nigeria. We examine Mark Beissinger's conceptualization of coupvolution, and pr…
Global Evolutionary Perspectives on Gender Differences in Religiosity, Family, Politics and Pro-Social Values Based on the Data from the World Values Survey
Recent studies show that the global increase in gender equality does not reduce gender differences in values. These findings somewhat undermine the social role theory and increase the need for additional explanations. These findings also imply that gender differences in values may stem from some underlying universalities that persist even through changes associated with socio-economic development. This gives us reason to explore an evolutionary p…
Forthcoming youth bulge in Egypt: Possible Sociopolitical Implications
The increased proportion of youth aged 15–24 or 15–29 in total or adult population has long been shown to influence the intensity of sociopolitical destabilisation in general and political violence in particular. Youth bulges played an important role in the destabilising processes of the Arab Spring. We show that the influence of youth bulges in Egypt (and North Africa in general) is far from being limited to historical events. The demographic dy…
How Can the Global Ageing Affect the Global Value System? An Evolutionary Perspective
religious and support Conservation values as opposed to Openness values.They also tend to support values of Self-Transcendence/care for the others rather than Self-Enhancement/self-empowerment, and support pro-social values more, condemning free-riders and various ways of cheating on the social system.Thus, global ageing might not only contribute to growth of conservation values, but also might have beneficial effects by increasing support of pro…
Urban Youth and Terrorism: A Quantitative Analysis (Are Youth Bulges Relevant Anymore)
Both urbanization and a high share of youth (“youth bulge”) have been shown to correlate with higher levels of political violence, in general, and terrorism, in particular. In this article, we test the hypothesis that urbanization and general youth bulge (share of aged 15–29 in the adult population) should produce a particularly significant impact on the level of terrorist activity when acting together due to the interaction effect. Performed neg…
Social Macroevolution and Changes in the Human Value Systems. How has Modernization Affected Human Values
The transition to expanded production and the exit from the Malthusian trap, two of the most important components of modernization transition, lead to a long-term trend of per capita GDP growth, and hence of the level of income and material well-being of the population. The question whether the factor of wealth affects the structure of individual human values and, if so, what are the directions of this impact, has been a subject of rather intense…
Global Systems for Sociopolitical Instability Forecasting and Their Efficiency: A Comparative Analysis
This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective years. It is demonstrated that the predictive capacity of those systems dropped dramatically after 2011. This is shown to be connected with the fact that the Arab Spring in 2011 acted as a trigger for a global ph…
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
Based on the experience of previous studies, the authors use machine learning methods at two levels for evaluating predictors of instability. First, they analyze the factors that lead to instability in general; second, they focus on the factors that influence the intensity of instability. Their analysis relies on data on mass protest destabilization. The system for assessing predictors of nonviolent destabilization is modernized and a two-level m…
The Earliest History of the Evolution of Social States in the Nineteenth Century Europe
Until the second half (or even the last few decades) of the nineteenth century states tended to play only a minimal role in social security. By the mid-nineteenth century, some Western European countries developed the first prototypes of the modern pension system. The real history of modern social security dates back to the laws adopted in Germany in the 1880s. In this paper we consider in more detail the examples of the early development of soci…
Variation of Human Values and Modernization: Preliminary Results
The current article investigates the relation between values and modernization applying some elements of the method proposed by Inglehart and Welzel (the authors of the Human Development Sequence Theory) to the data of Shalom Schwartz. The values survey by Schwartz specifies two main value axes, namely, conservation versus openness to change and self-transcendence versus self-enhancement. Our research has revealed that the correlation between the…
Measuring Globalization: Network Approach to Countries' Global Connectivity Rates and Their Evolution in Time
Religiosity and Aging: Age and Cohort Effects and Their Implications for the Future of Religious Values in High-Income OECD Countries
It has long been noticed that older people tend to be more religious than younger people. However, it is still disputable whether this fact should be attributed to people generally becoming more religious with age per se (age effect), or to the process of secularization, wherein earlier cohorts (to which the now older people belong) used to be more religious than those that appeared later, younger cohorts (cohort effect). We try to distinguish be…
Dynamics of Values and Modernization: A Quantitative Analysis
Historical Evolution of Global Scientific Collaboration: The Case of International Co-Authorship Network
The paper focuses on the patterns of evolution of the structure of global scientific collaboration over the most recent historical period. Among the multiple approaches to measuring such collaboration we choose to investigate the evolution of the international co-authorship network over a 25-year-long period (from 1991 to 2016). We build a series of networks of main international co-authorship partners using the data obtained from Scopus Elsevier…
Great Divergence of the 18th Century
The article suggests that the Great Divergence of the 19th century between “the West” and “the East” was preceded by the Great Divergence in the 18th century between the Global North and the Global South. This may be attributed to a new, much higher level of state efficiency in the Global North. The eastern and western regions of the Global North frequently used different methods to make their state apparatuses more efficient, but achieved striki…
Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
In the current paper we investigate the relation between secular cycles and millennial trends. The tests we have performed suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration. At a certain level of analysis millennial trends turn out to be a virtual byproduct of the demographic cycle mechanisms, which turn out to incorporate certain trend-creating mechanisms. Demogr…
Circumscription Theory of the Origins of the State: A Cross-Cultural Re-Analysis
In the paper we express some doubts about one of the assumptions of Robert Carneiro’s model on state (and chiefdom) formation, namely the role of circumscription. In our opinion, the main flaw of Carneiro’s original theory of state formation is that it implicitly assumes that every community dreamt to conquer its neighboring communities. We test the presence of various types of warfare (such as conquest warfare, land acquisition warfare, and plun…
Regime Type and Political Destabilization in Cross-National Perspective: A Re-Analysis
In this article, we re-analyze the hypothesis that the relationship between the type of political regime and its political instability forms an inverted U shape. Following this logic, consistent democracies and autocracies are more stable regimes, whereas intermediate regimes (anocracies) display the lowest levels of political stability. We re-test this hypothesis using a data set that has not been previously used for this purpose, finding suffic…
Explaining Current Fertility Dynamics in Tropical Africa From an Anthropological Perspective: A Cross-Cultural Investigation
Tropical Africa is known to be lagging far behind the rest of the world in its fertility transition. Many attempts have been made to specify the factors responsible for its resistance to fertility decline; however, no systemic explanation of the mechanisms sustaining its high fertility has been presented in cross-cultural perspective. In this article, we show how a set of anthropological factors provides both social and economic foundations for t…
East Africa in the Malthusian Trap
The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the “North African path” and are likely to encounter serious social problems before they achieve success in making a transition in their fertility rates, and (iii) East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the “Bangladeshi path” and wil…
Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014: A Cross-National Analysis
Jack Goldstone proposes three predictors for acute social and political destabilization during the revolutionary wave of 2013-2014: (a) an intermediate level of per capita GDP, (b) a high level of corruption, and (c) a transitional type of political regime. After testing this theory on a broader sample, this study suggests and finds support for another predictor—“center-periphery dissonance” for the destabilization of the 2013-2014 wave. The emer…
What does global migration network say about recent changes in the world system structure
Purpose – The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the structure of the international migration system has remained stable through the recent turbulent changes in the world system. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology draws on the social network analysis framework – but with some noteworthy limitations stipulated by the specifics of data. Findings – The list of the most central nodes demonstrates remarkable stability over time, wi…
Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives
The article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN data analysis shows that such a shift usually occurs against the background of very serious economic difficulties (and other problems associated with them). However, the urban population proportion stopped growing …
Regime Type and Political Destabilization in Cross-National Perspective: A Re-Analysis
In this article, we re-analyze the hypothesis that the relationship between the type of political regime and its political instability forms an inverted U shape. Following this logic, consistent democracies and autocracies are more stable regimes, whereas intermediate regimes (anocracies) display the lowest levels of political stability. We re-test this hypothesis using a data set that has not been previously used for this purpose, finding suffic…
A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia
The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented
Urban Youth and Terrorism: A Quantitative Analysis (Are Youth Bulges Relevant Anymore)
Both urbanization and a high share of youth (“youth bulge”) have been shown to correlate with higher levels of political violence, in general, and terrorism, in particular. In this article, we test the hypothesis that urbanization and general youth bulge (share of aged 15–29 in the adult population) should produce a particularly significant impact on the level of terrorist activity when acting together due to the interaction effect. Performed neg…
Religiosity and Aging: Age and Cohort Effects and Their Implications for the Future of Religious Values in High-Income OECD Countries
It has long been noticed that older people tend to be more religious than younger people. However, it is still disputable whether this fact should be attributed to people generally becoming more religious with age per se (age effect), or to the process of secularization, wherein earlier cohorts (to which the now older people belong) used to be more religious than those that appeared later, younger cohorts (cohort effect). We try to distinguish be…
Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014: A Cross-National Analysis
Jack Goldstone proposes three predictors for acute social and political destabilization during the revolutionary wave of 2013-2014: (a) an intermediate level of per capita GDP, (b) a high level of corruption, and (c) a transitional type of political regime. After testing this theory on a broader sample, this study suggests and finds support for another predictor—“center-periphery dissonance” for the destabilization of the 2013-2014 wave. The emer…
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
Based on the experience of previous studies, the authors use machine learning methods at two levels for evaluating predictors of instability. First, they analyze the factors that lead to instability in general; second, they focus on the factors that influence the intensity of instability. Their analysis relies on data on mass protest destabilization. The system for assessing predictors of nonviolent destabilization is modernized and a two-level m…
Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
In the current paper we investigate the relation between secular cycles and millennial trends. The tests we have performed suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration. At a certain level of analysis millennial trends turn out to be a virtual byproduct of the demographic cycle mechanisms, which turn out to incorporate certain trend-creating mechanisms. Demogr…
Explaining Current Fertility Dynamics in Tropical Africa From an Anthropological Perspective: A Cross-Cultural Investigation
Tropical Africa is known to be lagging far behind the rest of the world in its fertility transition. Many attempts have been made to specify the factors responsible for its resistance to fertility decline; however, no systemic explanation of the mechanisms sustaining its high fertility has been presented in cross-cultural perspective. In this article, we show how a set of anthropological factors provides both social and economic foundations for t…
Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives
The article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN data analysis shows that such a shift usually occurs against the background of very serious economic difficulties (and other problems associated with them). However, the urban population proportion stopped growing …
Measuring Globalization: Network Approach to Countries' Global Connectivity Rates and Their Evolution in Time
Circumscription Theory of the Origins of the State: A Cross-Cultural Re-Analysis
In the paper we express some doubts about one of the assumptions of Robert Carneiro’s model on state (and chiefdom) formation, namely the role of circumscription. In our opinion, the main flaw of Carneiro’s original theory of state formation is that it implicitly assumes that every community dreamt to conquer its neighboring communities. We test the presence of various types of warfare (such as conquest warfare, land acquisition warfare, and plun…
East Africa in the Malthusian Trap
The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the “North African path” and are likely to encounter serious social problems before they achieve success in making a transition in their fertility rates, and (iii) East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the “Bangladeshi path” and wil…
A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia
The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented
Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives
The article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN data analysis shows that such a shift usually occurs against the background of very serious economic difficulties (and other problems associated with them). However, the urban population proportion stopped growing …
What does global migration network say about recent changes in the world system structure
Purpose – The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the structure of the international migration system has remained stable through the recent turbulent changes in the world system. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology draws on the social network analysis framework – but with some noteworthy limitations stipulated by the specifics of data. Findings – The list of the most central nodes demonstrates remarkable stability over time, wi…
East Africa in the Malthusian Trap
The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the “North African path” and are likely to encounter serious social problems before they achieve success in making a transition in their fertility rates, and (iii) East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the “Bangladeshi path” and wil…
Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014: A Cross-National Analysis
Jack Goldstone proposes three predictors for acute social and political destabilization during the revolutionary wave of 2013-2014: (a) an intermediate level of per capita GDP, (b) a high level of corruption, and (c) a transitional type of political regime. After testing this theory on a broader sample, this study suggests and finds support for another predictor—“center-periphery dissonance” for the destabilization of the 2013-2014 wave. The emer…
Explaining Current Fertility Dynamics in Tropical Africa From an Anthropological Perspective: A Cross-Cultural Investigation
Tropical Africa is known to be lagging far behind the rest of the world in its fertility transition. Many attempts have been made to specify the factors responsible for its resistance to fertility decline; however, no systemic explanation of the mechanisms sustaining its high fertility has been presented in cross-cultural perspective. In this article, we show how a set of anthropological factors provides both social and economic foundations for t…
Great Divergence of the 18th Century
The article suggests that the Great Divergence of the 19th century between “the West” and “the East” was preceded by the Great Divergence in the 18th century between the Global North and the Global South. This may be attributed to a new, much higher level of state efficiency in the Global North. The eastern and western regions of the Global North frequently used different methods to make their state apparatuses more efficient, but achieved striki…
Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
In the current paper we investigate the relation between secular cycles and millennial trends. The tests we have performed suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration. At a certain level of analysis millennial trends turn out to be a virtual byproduct of the demographic cycle mechanisms, which turn out to incorporate certain trend-creating mechanisms. Demogr…
Circumscription Theory of the Origins of the State: A Cross-Cultural Re-Analysis
In the paper we express some doubts about one of the assumptions of Robert Carneiro’s model on state (and chiefdom) formation, namely the role of circumscription. In our opinion, the main flaw of Carneiro’s original theory of state formation is that it implicitly assumes that every community dreamt to conquer its neighboring communities. We test the presence of various types of warfare (such as conquest warfare, land acquisition warfare, and plun…
Regime Type and Political Destabilization in Cross-National Perspective: A Re-Analysis
In this article, we re-analyze the hypothesis that the relationship between the type of political regime and its political instability forms an inverted U shape. Following this logic, consistent democracies and autocracies are more stable regimes, whereas intermediate regimes (anocracies) display the lowest levels of political stability. We re-test this hypothesis using a data set that has not been previously used for this purpose, finding suffic…
Dynamics of Values and Modernization: A Quantitative Analysis
Historical Evolution of Global Scientific Collaboration: The Case of International Co-Authorship Network
The paper focuses on the patterns of evolution of the structure of global scientific collaboration over the most recent historical period. Among the multiple approaches to measuring such collaboration we choose to investigate the evolution of the international co-authorship network over a 25-year-long period (from 1991 to 2016). We build a series of networks of main international co-authorship partners using the data obtained from Scopus Elsevier…
Measuring Globalization: Network Approach to Countries' Global Connectivity Rates and Their Evolution in Time
Religiosity and Aging: Age and Cohort Effects and Their Implications for the Future of Religious Values in High-Income OECD Countries
It has long been noticed that older people tend to be more religious than younger people. However, it is still disputable whether this fact should be attributed to people generally becoming more religious with age per se (age effect), or to the process of secularization, wherein earlier cohorts (to which the now older people belong) used to be more religious than those that appeared later, younger cohorts (cohort effect). We try to distinguish be…
The Earliest History of the Evolution of Social States in the Nineteenth Century Europe
Until the second half (or even the last few decades) of the nineteenth century states tended to play only a minimal role in social security. By the mid-nineteenth century, some Western European countries developed the first prototypes of the modern pension system. The real history of modern social security dates back to the laws adopted in Germany in the 1880s. In this paper we consider in more detail the examples of the early development of soci…
Variation of Human Values and Modernization: Preliminary Results
The current article investigates the relation between values and modernization applying some elements of the method proposed by Inglehart and Welzel (the authors of the Human Development Sequence Theory) to the data of Shalom Schwartz. The values survey by Schwartz specifies two main value axes, namely, conservation versus openness to change and self-transcendence versus self-enhancement. Our research has revealed that the correlation between the…
Social Macroevolution and Changes in the Human Value Systems. How has Modernization Affected Human Values
The transition to expanded production and the exit from the Malthusian trap, two of the most important components of modernization transition, lead to a long-term trend of per capita GDP growth, and hence of the level of income and material well-being of the population. The question whether the factor of wealth affects the structure of individual human values and, if so, what are the directions of this impact, has been a subject of rather intense…
Global Systems for Sociopolitical Instability Forecasting and Their Efficiency: A Comparative Analysis
This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective years. It is demonstrated that the predictive capacity of those systems dropped dramatically after 2011. This is shown to be connected with the fact that the Arab Spring in 2011 acted as a trigger for a global ph…
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
Based on the experience of previous studies, the authors use machine learning methods at two levels for evaluating predictors of instability. First, they analyze the factors that lead to instability in general; second, they focus on the factors that influence the intensity of instability. Their analysis relies on data on mass protest destabilization. The system for assessing predictors of nonviolent destabilization is modernized and a two-level m…
How Can the Global Ageing Affect the Global Value System? An Evolutionary Perspective
religious and support Conservation values as opposed to Openness values.They also tend to support values of Self-Transcendence/care for the others rather than Self-Enhancement/self-empowerment, and support pro-social values more, condemning free-riders and various ways of cheating on the social system.Thus, global ageing might not only contribute to growth of conservation values, but also might have beneficial effects by increasing support of pro…
Urban Youth and Terrorism: A Quantitative Analysis (Are Youth Bulges Relevant Anymore)
Both urbanization and a high share of youth (“youth bulge”) have been shown to correlate with higher levels of political violence, in general, and terrorism, in particular. In this article, we test the hypothesis that urbanization and general youth bulge (share of aged 15–29 in the adult population) should produce a particularly significant impact on the level of terrorist activity when acting together due to the interaction effect. Performed neg…
Global Evolutionary Perspectives on Gender Differences in Religiosity, Family, Politics and Pro-Social Values Based on the Data from the World Values Survey
Recent studies show that the global increase in gender equality does not reduce gender differences in values. These findings somewhat undermine the social role theory and increase the need for additional explanations. These findings also imply that gender differences in values may stem from some underlying universalities that persist even through changes associated with socio-economic development. This gives us reason to explore an evolutionary p…
Forthcoming youth bulge in Egypt: Possible Sociopolitical Implications
The increased proportion of youth aged 15–24 or 15–29 in total or adult population has long been shown to influence the intensity of sociopolitical destabilisation in general and political violence in particular. Youth bulges played an important role in the destabilising processes of the Arab Spring. We show that the influence of youth bulges in Egypt (and North Africa in general) is far from being limited to historical events. The demographic dy…
Why Do Revolutions Tend to Become Less Violent: Some Explanations of the Global Trend
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ones, whereas autocratic regimes in most societies gave way to anocratic and democratic…
On coupvolution: A type of revolutionary episodes in the modern West African context
The theory of revolutions has faced major challenges, one of the most important being how to conceptualize revolutions. The theory currently needs novel foci. One potential novel concept is "coupvolution," which can be defined as a type of revolutionary events with elements of both a coup and a revolution. We highlight the importance of a recent failed coupvolution in Nigeria. We examine Mark Beissinger's conceptualization of coupvolution, and pr…
Economics (15 works) · Political science (13 works) · Sociology (13 works) · Geography (11 works) · Demography (9 works) · Politics (9 works) · Law (8 works) · Law (8 works) · Computer Science (7 works) · Demography (7 works)