Eric Winsberg
Biographic Data
| ID | 983795 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Eric Winsberg |
| GIVEN NAMES | Eric |
| FAMILY NAME | Winsberg |
| SIGNATURE | WINSBERG E |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of South Florida |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8764-0072 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 31 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 194 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 29 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 2 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1999 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
The Perverse Incentives of Climate Integration: Why Researchers Can't Deliver What Funding Institutions Demand
Research funders increasingly require integration of future climate projections across health, agriculture, fisheries, and development economics, creating perverse incentives: institutions demand what current climate science cannot reliably deliver. I use “perverse incentive” here in its standard economic sense: an incentive that unintentionally produces counterproductive behavior, rather than implying ill will on the part of funders. Climate mod…
Managing values' in health economics modelling: Philosophical and practical considerations
The Probability Map of the Universe: Essays on David Albert’s Time and Chance
David Albert’s 2000 book Time and Chance attempts to account for some of the most intractable problems in theoretical physics, in particular those arising from the direction of time. This collection assembles essays exploring and debating Albert’s ideas, now recognized as among the most important recent contributions to the philosophy of science.
The Probability Map of the Universe: Essays on David Albert's Time and Chance
Probability Map of the Universe: Essays on David Albert's Time and Chance
Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: Attitudes De se and De motu
This paper argues that the classification of propositional attitudes into the de re , de dicto , and de se is incomplete. De se attitudes are widely agreed to be closely connected to de re attitudes. But there is a species of belief that is linked to agent‐centered action in the way that de se beliefs are, but is also associated with entities, places, and especially times, under a description . These mark out a fourth kind. One way to think about…
Purposes and duties in scientific modelling
More people than ever are paying attention to philosophical questions about epidemiological models, including their susceptibility to the influence of social and ethical values, sufficiency to inform policy decisions under certain conditions, and even their fundamental nature. One important question pertains to the purposes of epidemiological models, for example, are COVID-19 models for ‘prediction’ or ‘projection’? Are they adequate for making c…
A Modest Defense of Geoengineering Research: A Case Study in the Cost of Learning
What does robustness teach us in climate science: A re-appraisal
Value judgments in a Covid-19 vaccination model: A case study in the need for public involvement in health-oriented modelling
Scientific modelling is a value-laden process: the decisions involved can seldom be made using 'scientific' criteria alone, but rather draw on social and ethical values. In this paper, we draw on a body of philosophical literature to analyze a COVID-19 vaccination model, presenting a case study of social and ethical value judgments in health-oriented modelling. This case study urges us to make value judgments in health-oriented models explicit an…
Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away
Hawking radiation and analogue experiments: A Bayesian analysis
Philosophy and Climate Science
There continues to be a vigorous public debate in our society about the status of climate science. Much of the skepticism voiced in this debate suffers from a lack of understanding of how the science works - in particular the complex interdisciplinary scientific modeling activities such as those which are at the heart of climate science. In this book Eric Winsberg shows clearly and accessibly how philosophy of science can contribute to our unders…
Confirmation via Analogue Simulation: What Dumb Holes Could Tell Us about Gravity
In this article we argue for the existence of ‘analogue simulation’ as a novel form of scientific inference with the potential to be confirmatory. This notion is distinct from the modes of analogical reasoning detailed in the literature, and draws inspiration from fluid dynamical ‘dumb hole’ analogues to gravitational black holes. For that case, which is considered in detail, we defend the claim that the phenomena of gravitational Hawking radiati…
The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments
Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections
Roman Frigg and others have developed a general epistemological argument designed to cast doubt on the capacity of a broad range of mathematical models (including many climate models) to generate “decision relevant predictions.” In this article, we lay out the structure of their argument—an argument by analogy—with an eye to identifying points at which certain epistemically significant distinctions might limit the force of the analogy. Finally, s…
Accountability and values in radically collaborative research
Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models
Over the last several years, there has been an explosion of interest and attention devoted to the problem of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in climate science—that is, to giving quantitative estimates of the degree of uncertainty associated with the predictions of global and regional climate models. The technical challenges associated with this project are formidable, and so the statistical community has understandably devoted itself primarily t…
Science in the Age of Computer Simulation
Computer simulation was first pioneered as a scientific tool in meteorology and nuclear physics in the period following World War II, but it has grown rapidly to become indispensible in a wide variety of scientific disciplines, including astrophysics, high-energy physics, climate science, engineering, ecology, and economics. Digital computer simulation helps study phenomena of great complexity, but how much do we know about the limits and possibi…
Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism
Lawless Territory
A tale of two methods
Computer Simulation and the Philosophy of Science
There are a variety of topics in the philosophy of science that need to be rethought, in varying degrees, after one pays careful attention to the ways in which computer simulations are used in the sciences. There are a number of conceptual issues internal to the practice of computer simulation that can benefit from the attention of philosophers. This essay surveys some of the recent literature on simulation from the perspective of the philosophy …
Laws and chances in statistical mechanics
Models of Success Versus the Success of Models: Reliability without Truth
Simulated Experiments: Methodology for a Virtual World
This paper examines the relationship between simulation and experiment. Many discussions of simulation, and indeed the term “numerical experiments,” invoke a strong metaphor of experimentation. On the other hand, many simulations begin as attempts to apply scientific theories. This has lead many to characterize simulation as lying between theory and experiment. The aim of the paper is to try to reconcile these two points of view—to understand wha…
Sanctioning Models: The Epistemology of Simulation
The ArgumentIn its reconstruction of scientific practice, philosophy of science has traditionally placed scientific theories in a central role, and has reduced the problem of mediating between theories and the world to formal considerations. Many applications of scientific theories, however, involve complex mathematical models whose constitutive equations are analytically unsolvable. The study of these applications often consists in developing re…
A tale of two methods
Confirmation via Analogue Simulation: What Dumb Holes Could Tell Us about Gravity
In this article we argue for the existence of ‘analogue simulation’ as a novel form of scientific inference with the potential to be confirmatory. This notion is distinct from the modes of analogical reasoning detailed in the literature, and draws inspiration from fluid dynamical ‘dumb hole’ analogues to gravitational black holes. For that case, which is considered in detail, we defend the claim that the phenomena of gravitational Hawking radiati…
Simulations, Models, and Theories: Complex Physical Systems and Their Representations
Using an example of a computer simulation of the convective structure of a red giant star, this paper argues that simulation is a rich inferential process, and not simply a “number crunching” technique. The scientific practice of simulation, moreover, poses some interesting and challenging epistemological and methodological issues for the philosophy of science. I will also argue that these challenges would be best addressed by a philosophy of sci…
Accountability and values in radically collaborative research
Models of Success Versus the Success of Models: Reliability without Truth
Can Conditioning on the “Past Hypothesis” Militate Against the Reversibility Objections
In his recent book, Time and Chance , David Albert claims that by positing that there is a uniform probability distribution defined, on the standard measure, over the space of microscopic states that are compatible with both the current macrocondition of the world, and with what he calls the “past hypothesis”, we can explain the time asymmetry of all of the thermodynamic behavior in the world. The principal purpose of this paper is to dispute thi…
Handshaking Your Way to the Top: Simulation at the Nanoscale
Should philosophers of science be paying attention to developments in “nanoscience”? Undoubtedly, it is too early to tell for sure. The goal of this paper is to take a preliminary look. In particular, I look at the use of computational models in the study of nano-sized solid-state materials. What I find is that there are features of these models that appear on their face to be at odds with some basic philosophical intuitions about the relationshi…
What does robustness teach us in climate science: A re-appraisal
Computer Simulation and the Philosophy of Science
There are a variety of topics in the philosophy of science that need to be rethought, in varying degrees, after one pays careful attention to the ways in which computer simulations are used in the sciences. There are a number of conceptual issues internal to the practice of computer simulation that can benefit from the attention of philosophers. This essay surveys some of the recent literature on simulation from the perspective of the philosophy …
Purposes and duties in scientific modelling
More people than ever are paying attention to philosophical questions about epidemiological models, including their susceptibility to the influence of social and ethical values, sufficiency to inform policy decisions under certain conditions, and even their fundamental nature. One important question pertains to the purposes of epidemiological models, for example, are COVID-19 models for ‘prediction’ or ‘projection’? Are they adequate for making c…
Value judgments in a Covid-19 vaccination model: A case study in the need for public involvement in health-oriented modelling
Scientific modelling is a value-laden process: the decisions involved can seldom be made using 'scientific' criteria alone, but rather draw on social and ethical values. In this paper, we draw on a body of philosophical literature to analyze a COVID-19 vaccination model, presenting a case study of social and ethical value judgments in health-oriented modelling. This case study urges us to make value judgments in health-oriented models explicit an…
Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away
Laws and Statistical Mechanics
This paper explores some connections between competing conceptions of scientific laws on the one hand, and a problem in the foundations of statistical mechanics on the other. I examine two proposals for understanding the time asymmetry of thermodynamic phenomenal: David Albert's recent proposal and a proposal that I outline based on Hans Reichenbach's “branch systems”. I sketch an argument against the former, and mount a defense of the latter by …
Managing values' in health economics modelling: Philosophical and practical considerations
Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections
Roman Frigg and others have developed a general epistemological argument designed to cast doubt on the capacity of a broad range of mathematical models (including many climate models) to generate “decision relevant predictions.” In this article, we lay out the structure of their argument—an argument by analogy—with an eye to identifying points at which certain epistemically significant distinctions might limit the force of the analogy. Finally, s…
Sanctioning Models: The Epistemology of Simulation
The ArgumentIn its reconstruction of scientific practice, philosophy of science has traditionally placed scientific theories in a central role, and has reduced the problem of mediating between theories and the world to formal considerations. Many applications of scientific theories, however, involve complex mathematical models whose constitutive equations are analytically unsolvable. The study of these applications often consists in developing re…
Simulations, Models, and Theories: Complex Physical Systems and Their Representations
Using an example of a computer simulation of the convective structure of a red giant star, this paper argues that simulation is a rich inferential process, and not simply a “number crunching” technique. The scientific practice of simulation, moreover, poses some interesting and challenging epistemological and methodological issues for the philosophy of science. I will also argue that these challenges would be best addressed by a philosophy of sci…
Simulated Experiments: Methodology for a Virtual World
This paper examines the relationship between simulation and experiment. Many discussions of simulation, and indeed the term “numerical experiments,” invoke a strong metaphor of experimentation. On the other hand, many simulations begin as attempts to apply scientific theories. This has lead many to characterize simulation as lying between theory and experiment. The aim of the paper is to try to reconcile these two points of view—to understand wha…
Can Conditioning on the “Past Hypothesis” Militate Against the Reversibility Objections
In his recent book, Time and Chance , David Albert claims that by positing that there is a uniform probability distribution defined, on the standard measure, over the space of microscopic states that are compatible with both the current macrocondition of the world, and with what he calls the “past hypothesis”, we can explain the time asymmetry of all of the thermodynamic behavior in the world. The principal purpose of this paper is to dispute thi…
Laws and Statistical Mechanics
This paper explores some connections between competing conceptions of scientific laws on the one hand, and a problem in the foundations of statistical mechanics on the other. I examine two proposals for understanding the time asymmetry of thermodynamic phenomenal: David Albert's recent proposal and a proposal that I outline based on Hans Reichenbach's “branch systems”. I sketch an argument against the former, and mount a defense of the latter by …
Models of Success Versus the Success of Models: Reliability without Truth
Handshaking Your Way to the Top: Simulation at the Nanoscale
Should philosophers of science be paying attention to developments in “nanoscience”? Undoubtedly, it is too early to tell for sure. The goal of this paper is to take a preliminary look. In particular, I look at the use of computational models in the study of nano-sized solid-state materials. What I find is that there are features of these models that appear on their face to be at odds with some basic philosophical intuitions about the relationshi…
Laws and chances in statistical mechanics
Lawless Territory
A tale of two methods
Computer Simulation and the Philosophy of Science
There are a variety of topics in the philosophy of science that need to be rethought, in varying degrees, after one pays careful attention to the ways in which computer simulations are used in the sciences. There are a number of conceptual issues internal to the practice of computer simulation that can benefit from the attention of philosophers. This essay surveys some of the recent literature on simulation from the perspective of the philosophy …
Science in the Age of Computer Simulation
Computer simulation was first pioneered as a scientific tool in meteorology and nuclear physics in the period following World War II, but it has grown rapidly to become indispensible in a wide variety of scientific disciplines, including astrophysics, high-energy physics, climate science, engineering, ecology, and economics. Digital computer simulation helps study phenomena of great complexity, but how much do we know about the limits and possibi…
Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism
Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models
Over the last several years, there has been an explosion of interest and attention devoted to the problem of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in climate science—that is, to giving quantitative estimates of the degree of uncertainty associated with the predictions of global and regional climate models. The technical challenges associated with this project are formidable, and so the statistical community has understandably devoted itself primarily t…
Accountability and values in radically collaborative research
The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments
Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections
Roman Frigg and others have developed a general epistemological argument designed to cast doubt on the capacity of a broad range of mathematical models (including many climate models) to generate “decision relevant predictions.” In this article, we lay out the structure of their argument—an argument by analogy—with an eye to identifying points at which certain epistemically significant distinctions might limit the force of the analogy. Finally, s…
Confirmation via Analogue Simulation: What Dumb Holes Could Tell Us about Gravity
In this article we argue for the existence of ‘analogue simulation’ as a novel form of scientific inference with the potential to be confirmatory. This notion is distinct from the modes of analogical reasoning detailed in the literature, and draws inspiration from fluid dynamical ‘dumb hole’ analogues to gravitational black holes. For that case, which is considered in detail, we defend the claim that the phenomena of gravitational Hawking radiati…
Philosophy and Climate Science
There continues to be a vigorous public debate in our society about the status of climate science. Much of the skepticism voiced in this debate suffers from a lack of understanding of how the science works - in particular the complex interdisciplinary scientific modeling activities such as those which are at the heart of climate science. In this book Eric Winsberg shows clearly and accessibly how philosophy of science can contribute to our unders…
Hawking radiation and analogue experiments: A Bayesian analysis
Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away
A Modest Defense of Geoengineering Research: A Case Study in the Cost of Learning
What does robustness teach us in climate science: A re-appraisal
Value judgments in a Covid-19 vaccination model: A case study in the need for public involvement in health-oriented modelling
Scientific modelling is a value-laden process: the decisions involved can seldom be made using 'scientific' criteria alone, but rather draw on social and ethical values. In this paper, we draw on a body of philosophical literature to analyze a COVID-19 vaccination model, presenting a case study of social and ethical value judgments in health-oriented modelling. This case study urges us to make value judgments in health-oriented models explicit an…
Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: Attitudes De se and De motu
This paper argues that the classification of propositional attitudes into the de re , de dicto , and de se is incomplete. De se attitudes are widely agreed to be closely connected to de re attitudes. But there is a species of belief that is linked to agent‐centered action in the way that de se beliefs are, but is also associated with entities, places, and especially times, under a description . These mark out a fourth kind. One way to think about…
Epistemology (21 works) · Computer Science (20 works) · Philosophy (20 works) · Philosophy and History of Science (15 works) · Philosophy of science (11 works) · Physics (11 works) · Sociology (11 works) · Economics (8 works) · Science and Climate Studies (8 works) · Climate change (7 works)