David V Budescu
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 120934 |
|---|---|
| NOME | David V Budescu |
| PRENOMES | David V |
| SOBRENOME | Budescu |
| ASSINATURA | BUDESCU D V |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9613-0317 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 49 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 110 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 49 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1982 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 5 |
On Sharing Benefits Created by Costly Help
Cases in which a costly helping act by a benefactor can greatly improve the outcomes of a beneficiary abound. Such help conforms with prevalent social norms and can increase collective welfare. We study how the surplus created through such help is shared by the benefactor and the beneficiary. We hypothesized that aspects of the situation, such as relative wealth, social distance, whether the help increased gains or prevented losses, and perspecti…
Algorithms in selection decisions
Selection decisions are often affected by irrelevant variables such as gender or race. People can discount this irrelevant information by adjusting their predictions accordingly, yet they fail to do so intuitively. In five online studies ( N = 1077), participants were asked to make selection decisions in which the selection test was affected by irrelevant attributes. We examined whether in such decisions people are willing to be advised by algori…
To deliberate or not? The role of intuition and deliberation when controlling for irrelevant information in selection decisions
Preference for human or algorithmic forecasting advice does not predict if and how it is used
Past research has found that people treat advice differently depending on its source. In many cases, people seem to prefer human advice to algorithms, but in others, there is a reversal, and people seem to prefer algorithmic advice. Across two studies, we examine the persuasiveness of, and judges' preferences for, advice from different sources when forecasting geopolitical events. We find that judges report domain‐specific preferences, preferring…
Meta‐informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy
Meta‐information is information about information that can be used as cues to guide judgments and decisions. Three types of meta‐information that are routinely used in intelligence analysis are source reliability, information credibility, and classification level. The first two cues are intended to speak to information quality (in particular, the probability that the information is accurate), and classification level is intended to describe the i…
Using Selected Peers to Improve the Accuracy of Crowd Sourced Forecasts
"Using Selected Peers to Improve the Accuracy of Crowd Sourced Forecasts." Multivariate Behavioral Research, 56(1), pp. 155–156
The value of being precise
Eliciting Subjective Probabilities through Pair‐wise Comparisons
We propose and test a novel approach for eliciting subjective joint probabilities. In the proposed approach, judges compare pairs of possible outcomes and identify which of the two is more likely and by how much. These pair‐wise comparative judgments create a matrix of ratio judgments from which the target probabilities are extracted using the rows' (or columns') geometric means. In Study 1, subjects provided direct assessments of the likelihood …
Effects of Score Feedback on Test-Taker Behavior in Self-Adapted Testing
"Effects of Score Feedback on Test-Taker Behavior in Self-Adapted Testing." Multivariate Behavioral Research, 50(6), pp. 724–725
Local Sensitivity Drives Estimates of Conflicting and Imprecise Forecasts
"Local Sensitivity Drives Estimates of Conflicting and Imprecise Forecasts." Multivariate Behavioral Research, 50(6), p. 739
Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act
Advice from Experience
People utilize advice often with limited knowledge of their advisers' expertise. We examine the effects of learning mode on giving and receiving advice in two separate but linked studies. Advisers learned about a choice between two lotteries from either description or experience before writing advice. The decision makers only read this advice before choosing between the options. Advisers who learned from description provided better summarized inf…
The Effect of the Raters' Marginal Distributions on Their Matched Agreement
Cohen's κ measures the improvement in classification above chance level and it is the most popular measure of interjudge agreement. Yet, there is considerable confusion about its interpretation. Specifically, researchers often ignore the fact that the observed level of matched agreement is bounded from above and below and the bounds are a function of the particular marginal distributions of the table. We propose that these bounds should be used t…
How to measure diversity when you must.
Racial/ethnic diversity has become an increasingly important variable in the social sciences. Research from multiple disciplines consistently demonstrates the tremendous impact of ethnic diversity on individuals and organizations. Investigators use a variety of measures, and their choices can affect the conclusions that can be drawn and limit the ability to compare and generalize results across studies effectively. The current article reviews 3 p…
Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports
It’s a game of give and take
We investigate a new give-or-take-some (GOTS) dilemma paradigm that merges traditional give-some and take-some dilemmas. In this hybrid social dilemma, individuals can choose to give or to take resources from a shared resource pool. Previous empirical work by McCarter, Budescu, and Scheffran (2011) found that the composition of the group and the individuals’ endowments influenced their tendency to give and/or take. We reanalyze results from two e…
Revisiting the Gain–Loss Separability Assumption in Prospect Theory
A fundamental assumption of prospect theory is gain–loss separability (GLS)—the assertion that the overall utility of a prospect can be expressed as a function of the utilities of its positive and negative components. Violations of GLS may potentially limit the generalization of results from studies of single‐domain prospects to mixed prospects and systematically distort the predictions of the theory. Violations also have implications for how cho…
Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses information relevant to the understanding of climate change and explores options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC reports communicate uncertainty by using a set of probability terms accompanied by global interpretational guidelines. The judgment literature indicates that there are large differences in the way people understand such phrases, and that their use may lead to confusi…
An Extension of Dominance Analysis to Canonical Correlation Analysis
Dominance analysis (CitationBudescu, 1993) offers a general framework for determination of relative importance of predictors in univariate and multivariate multiple regression models. This approach relies on pairwise comparisons of the contribution of predictors in all relevant subset models. In this article we extend dominance analysis to canonical correlation analysis to explore the relative importance of the variables in both sets. The propose…
Collective induction without cooperation? Learning and knowledge transfer in cooperative groups and competitive auctions
There is strong evidence that groups perform better than individuals do on intellective tasks with demonstrably correct solutions. Typically, these studies assume that group members share common goals. The authors extend this line of research by replacing standard face-to-face group interactions with competitive auctions, allowing for conflicting individual incentives. In a series of studies involving the well-known Wason selection task, they dem…
Aggregation of opinions based on correlated cues and advisors
We study the process by which decision makers (DMs) aggregate probabilistic opinions from multiple, correlated sources with a special emphasis on the determinants of the DM's confidence, which is a predictor of the DM's willingness to accept the implications of the aggregation process. Our model assumes that (a) DM combines the advisors' opinions by weighting them according to the amount of information underlying them, and (b) the DM's confidence…
Scoring and keying multiple choice tests
Special Reviewers
The dominance analysis approach for comparing predictors in multiple regression.
A general method is presented for comparing the relative importance of predictors in multiple regression. Dominance analysis (D. V. Budescu, 1993), a procedure that is based on an examination of the R2 values for all possible subset models, is refined and extended by introducing several quantitative measures of dominance that differ in the strictness of the dominance definition. These are shown to be intuitive, meaningful, and informative measure…
Predicting the directionality of probability words from their membership functions
Teigen and Brun have suggested that distinct from their numerical implications, most probability phrases are either positive or negative , in that they encourage one to think of reasons why the target event will or will not occur. We report two experiments testing our hypotheses that (a) the direction of a phrase can be predicted from properties of its membership function, and (b) this relation is invariant across contexts, and (c) —originally fo…
Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act
Dominance analysis
Whenever multiple regression is used to test and compare theoretically motivated models, it is of interest to determine the relative importance of the predictors. Specifically, researchers seek to rank order and scale variables in terms of their importance and to express global statistics of the model as a function of these measures. This article reviews the many meanings of importance of predictors in multiple regression, highlights their weakne…
Cooperation in Intergroup, N-Person, and Two-Person Games of Chicken
The authors introduce a new team game, the intergroup chicken game, to model intergroup conflicts involving bilateral threats (e.g., military conflicts, industrial disputes). The group that wins the game is the one that competes while the other group yields, and the benefits associated with winning (e.g., territory, higher wages) are public goods for the members of that group. However, a failure to yield on the part of both groups leads to an out…
Resource dilemmas with environmental uncertainty and asymmetric players
Groups of subjects participated in a series of 30 noncooperative independent single‐trial resource dilemmas. On each trial the subjects in each group requested privately a number of points from a common pool. Individual requests were granted if and only if the total group request was equal to or smaller than the pool size. The pool size on each trial was sampled randomly from a uniform distribution that was common knowledge. Asymmetry in payoff w…
A model of sequential effects in common pool resource dilemmas
Experimental games are often used as models of social dilemmas in which small groups of players have unrestricted access to, and share, a common and finite resource of desirable goods in the absence of any binding coordination mechanism. Examples are fishing, hunting, and use of computational facilities. Experimental studies of social dilemmas employ different protocols of play that differ from each other in terms of the information available to …
Aggregation of opinions based on correlated cues and advisors
We study the process by which decision makers (DMs) aggregate probabilistic opinions from multiple, correlated sources with a special emphasis on the determinants of the DM's confidence, which is a predictor of the DM's willingness to accept the implications of the aggregation process. Our model assumes that (a) DM combines the advisors' opinions by weighting them according to the amount of information underlying them, and (b) the DM's confidence…
Preference for human or algorithmic forecasting advice does not predict if and how it is used
Past research has found that people treat advice differently depending on its source. In many cases, people seem to prefer human advice to algorithms, but in others, there is a reversal, and people seem to prefer algorithmic advice. Across two studies, we examine the persuasiveness of, and judges' preferences for, advice from different sources when forecasting geopolitical events. We find that judges report domain‐specific preferences, preferring…
Predicting the directionality of probability words from their membership functions
Teigen and Brun have suggested that distinct from their numerical implications, most probability phrases are either positive or negative , in that they encourage one to think of reasons why the target event will or will not occur. We report two experiments testing our hypotheses that (a) the direction of a phrase can be predicted from properties of its membership function, and (b) this relation is invariant across contexts, and (c) —originally fo…
Averaging probability judgments
Wallsten et al. (1997) developed a general framework for assessing the quality of aggregated probability judgments. Within this framework they presented a theorem regarding the effects of pooling multiple probability judgments regarding unique binary events. The theorem states that under reasonable conditions, and assuming conditional pairwise independence of the judgments, the average probability estimate is asymptotically perfectly diagnostic o…
Advice from Experience
People utilize advice often with limited knowledge of their advisers' expertise. We examine the effects of learning mode on giving and receiving advice in two separate but linked studies. Advisers learned about a choice between two lotteries from either description or experience before writing advice. The decision makers only read this advice before choosing between the options. Advisers who learned from description provided better summarized inf…
Collective induction without cooperation? Learning and knowledge transfer in cooperative groups and competitive auctions
There is strong evidence that groups perform better than individuals do on intellective tasks with demonstrably correct solutions. Typically, these studies assume that group members share common goals. The authors extend this line of research by replacing standard face-to-face group interactions with competitive auctions, allowing for conflicting individual incentives. In a series of studies involving the well-known Wason selection task, they dem…
The relationship between the illusion of control and the desirability bias
Desirability bias is the tendency to overpredict desirable outcomes and under‐predict unwanted results. The illusion of control is the tendency to believe that, or act as if, one can skillfully influence and control outcomes of chance events. These two related phenomena cause people to paint a ‘rosy picture’ of current reality or the future (McKenna, 1993). The circumstances under which the two biases operate and the nature of the relationship be…
Meta‐informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy
Meta‐information is information about information that can be used as cues to guide judgments and decisions. Three types of meta‐information that are routinely used in intelligence analysis are source reliability, information credibility, and classification level. The first two cues are intended to speak to information quality (in particular, the probability that the information is accurate), and classification level is intended to describe the i…
The value of being precise
Random error reduction in analytic hierarchies
The principle of ‘divide and conquer’ (DAC) suggests that complex decision problems should be decomposed into smaller, more manageable parts, and that these parts should be logically aggregated to derive an overall value for each alternative. Decompositional procedures have been contrasted with holistic evaluations that require decision makers to simultaneously consider all the relevant attributes of the alternatives under consideration (Fischer,…
The same but different
According to classical utility theory the valuation of any lottery should depend only on its outcomes and their respective probabilities, and should not be affected by the nature, complexity and structure of the chance mechanism. Previous research has documented systematic violations of this principle. For example, most subjects prefer lotteries in which the payoffs are contingent on the joint occurrence of multiple (high probability) events to s…
Subjective randomization in one‐and two‐person games
Following the study by Rapoport and Budescu (1992), two experiments are reported whose main purpose is to compare the generation of random sequences in one‐ and two‐person games. The first experiment addresses the generation of trinary series in two‐person zerosum games with asymmetric players. The second examines the generation of binary series using a between‐subjects design, and compares the cognitive processes operating in one‐ and two‐person…
Analysis of dichotomous variables in the presence of serial dependence
Tests of lagged dominance in sequential dyadic interaction
The Power of the F Test in Normal Populations with Heterogeneous Variances
An empirical study of the power of the F test in normal populations with variances proportional to the cell means is reported. The results indicate that the power of the test can be approximated by the noncentral F distribution with a modified parameter of noncentrality
The Estimation of Factor Indeterminacy
The degree of indeterminacy of the factor score estimates is usually measured by R 2 , the sample multiple correlation between the factor scores and the original variables. However, this value, and any of its linear transformations, is biased and, thus, can lead to erroneous conclusion regarding the nature of the results. The magnitude of this bias is illustrated, and the use of an adjusted version of R 2 is recommended. Finally, some guidelines …
Tests of lagged dominance in sequential dyadic interaction
Tests of lagged dominance in sequential dyadic interaction
Analysis of dichotomous variables in the presence of serial dependence
Analysis of dichotomous variables in the presence of serial dependence
Resource dilemmas with environmental uncertainty and asymmetric players
Groups of subjects participated in a series of 30 noncooperative independent single‐trial resource dilemmas. On each trial the subjects in each group requested privately a number of points from a common pool. Individual requests were granted if and only if the total group request was equal to or smaller than the pool size. The pool size on each trial was sampled randomly from a uniform distribution that was common knowledge. Asymmetry in payoff w…
Dominance analysis
Whenever multiple regression is used to test and compare theoretically motivated models, it is of interest to determine the relative importance of the predictors. Specifically, researchers seek to rank order and scale variables in terms of their importance and to express global statistics of the model as a function of these measures. This article reviews the many meanings of importance of predictors in multiple regression, highlights their weakne…
Simultaneous over- and underconfidence
Subjective randomization in one‐and two‐person games
Following the study by Rapoport and Budescu (1992), two experiments are reported whose main purpose is to compare the generation of random sequences in one‐ and two‐person games. The first experiment addresses the generation of trinary series in two‐person zerosum games with asymmetric players. The second examines the generation of binary series using a between‐subjects design, and compares the cognitive processes operating in one‐ and two‐person…
Processing Linguistic Probabilities
The relationship between the illusion of control and the desirability bias
Desirability bias is the tendency to overpredict desirable outcomes and under‐predict unwanted results. The illusion of control is the tendency to believe that, or act as if, one can skillfully influence and control outcomes of chance events. These two related phenomena cause people to paint a ‘rosy picture’ of current reality or the future (McKenna, 1993). The circumstances under which the two biases operate and the nature of the relationship be…
Introduction to this Special Issue on Stochastic and Cognitive Models of Confidence
Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities
On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part II
Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994) and Budescu, Erev, and Wallsten (1997) demonstrated that over- and underconfidence often observed in judgment studies may be due, in part, to the presence of random error and its effects on the analysis of the judgments. To illustrate this fact they showed that a general model that assumes that overt responses representing (perfectly calibrated) true judgments perturbed by random error can replicate typical patt…
Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities
We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecis…
On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part I
Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994) demonstrated that over- and underconfidence can be observed simultaneously in judgment studies, as a function of the method used to analyze the data. They proposed a general model to account for this apparent paradox, which assumes that overt responses represent true judgments perturbed by random error. To illustrate that the model reproduces the pattern of results, they assumed perfectly calibrated true opinion…
Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates
This paper concerns the evaluation and combination of subjective probability estimates for categorical events. We argue that the appropriate criterion for evaluating individual and combined estimates depends on the type of uncertainty the decision maker seeks to represent, which in turn depends on his or her model of the event space. Decision makers require accurate estimates in the presence of aleatory uncertainty about exchangeable events, diag…
Introduction to this Special Issue on Stochastic and Cognitive Models of Confidence
Cooperation in Intergroup, N-Person, and Two-Person Games of Chicken
The authors introduce a new team game, the intergroup chicken game, to model intergroup conflicts involving bilateral threats (e.g., military conflicts, industrial disputes). The group that wins the game is the one that competes while the other group yields, and the benefits associated with winning (e.g., territory, higher wages) are public goods for the members of that group. However, a failure to yield on the part of both groups leads to an out…
Averaging probability judgments
Wallsten et al. (1997) developed a general framework for assessing the quality of aggregated probability judgments. Within this framework they presented a theorem regarding the effects of pooling multiple probability judgments regarding unique binary events. The theorem states that under reasonable conditions, and assuming conditional pairwise independence of the judgments, the average probability estimate is asymptotically perfectly diagnostic o…
Random error reduction in analytic hierarchies
The principle of ‘divide and conquer’ (DAC) suggests that complex decision problems should be decomposed into smaller, more manageable parts, and that these parts should be logically aggregated to derive an overall value for each alternative. Decompositional procedures have been contrasted with holistic evaluations that require decision makers to simultaneously consider all the relevant attributes of the alternatives under consideration (Fischer,…
The same but different
According to classical utility theory the valuation of any lottery should depend only on its outcomes and their respective probabilities, and should not be affected by the nature, complexity and structure of the chance mechanism. Previous research has documented systematic violations of this principle. For example, most subjects prefer lotteries in which the payoffs are contingent on the joint occurrence of multiple (high probability) events to s…
A model of sequential effects in common pool resource dilemmas
Experimental games are often used as models of social dilemmas in which small groups of players have unrestricted access to, and share, a common and finite resource of desirable goods in the absence of any binding coordination mechanism. Examples are fishing, hunting, and use of computational facilities. Experimental studies of social dilemmas employ different protocols of play that differ from each other in terms of the information available to …
The dominance analysis approach for comparing predictors in multiple regression.
A general method is presented for comparing the relative importance of predictors in multiple regression. Dominance analysis (D. V. Budescu, 1993), a procedure that is based on an examination of the R2 values for all possible subset models, is refined and extended by introducing several quantitative measures of dominance that differ in the strictness of the dominance definition. These are shown to be intuitive, meaningful, and informative measure…
Psychology (40 obras) · Computer Science (37 obras) · Mathematics (33 obras) · Statistics (29 obras) · Econometrics (23 obras) · Social Psychology (21 obras) · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics (19 obras) · Artificial Intelligence (16 obras) · Social Psychology (15 obras) · Economics (13 obras)