Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending

Dados Bibliográficos

ID4029183
AutoresJoanne Mueller (0000-0002-7119-9227, Cato Institute), John Mueller (0000-0002-8569-8414, Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center for International Security Studies and Adjunct Professor of Political Science, both at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. Senior Fellow, Cato Institute, Washington, DC.), Mark G Stewart (0000-0001-6887-6533, Australian Research Council Professorial Fellow and Professor and Director, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, both at the University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia.)
Ano2014
Volume28
Fascículo3
Páginas237-248
Data de publicação2014-08-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoThe Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965
EditoraAmerican Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1257/jep.28.3.237
OpenAlexW2092211011
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas15
Referências citadas9

In this article, we present a simple back-of-the-envelope approach for evaluating whether counterterrorism security measures reduce risk sufficiently to justify their costs. The approach uses only four variables: the consequences of a successful attack, the likelihood of a successful attack, the degree to which the security measure reduces risk, and the cost of the security measure. After measuring the cost of a counterterrorism measure, we explore a range of outcomes for the costs of terrorist attacks and a range of possible estimates for how much risk might be reduced by the measure. Then working from this mix of information and assumptions, we can calculate how many terrorist attacks (and of what size) would need to be averted to justify the cost of the counterterrorism measure in narrow cost-benefit terms. To illustrate this approach, we first apply it to the overall increases in domestic counterterrorism expenditures that have taken place since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and alternatively we apply it to just the FBI's counterterrorism efforts. We then evaluate evidence on the number and size of terrorist attacks that have actually been averted or might have been averted since 9/11

Actuarial science · Business · Computer security · Economics · Estimation · Political science · Terrorism · Computer Science · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence