Spatial analysis of synthetic clusters of risk and resilience in the wake of the Flint water crisis

Dados Bibliográficos

ID7163134
AutoresCaitlin Canfield (New York University), Caitlin F Canfield (0000-0001-8323-6948, New York University), Richard C Sadler (0000-0002-5130-8561, University of Michigan–Flint, autor correspondente), Lauren O’connell (0000-0001-8116-6886, University of Michigan), Lauren A O’connell (0000-0002-2706-4077, University of Michigan), Mary Alice Scott (0000-0002-1537-0894, New York University), Marc Scott (New York University), D J Kruger (0000-0002-2757-7016, Jacobs (United States)), Daniel Kruger (0000-0002-9238-3285, University at Buffalo), Alan L Mendelsohn (0000-0001-9876-8496, New York University), Alan Mendelsohn (New York University)
Ano2025
Volume30
Fascículo12
Páginas1512-1529
Data de publicação2025-12-02
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoLocal Environment (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1354-9839 • E-ISSN: 1469-6711
EditoraInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/13549839.2025.2471002
PMID41019355
OpenAlexW4408361062
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas1
Referências citadas69

Natural and anthropogenic disasters often have greater impact on marginalized communities because of structural disinvestment and racism. Impacts may not be uniform across communities; it is important to identify characteristics related to individual- and neighborhood-level resilience in the context of disaster. The Flint Water Crisis (FWC), given its varying, widespread impacts, provides an opportunity to examine these characteristics. Using Speak to Your Health! (STYH) survey data prior to (2013), during (2015), and after (2017) the FWC's onset, a synthetic longitudinal cohort was created, resulting in a cohort of 885 observations (295 per timepoint). Model-based clustering identified trajectory patterns of 4 factors (individual mental health, institutional trust, neighborhood satisfaction, social support). Each individual's cluster membership was mapped, and Getis-Ord Gi* Hot Spot Analysis identified geospatial patterns of cluster concentration. Five clusters were identified with distinct patterns of disaster impact and resilience: stressed; recovery; resilient; resilient-plus; and growth. Hot Spot analysis demonstrated patterns the cluster membership related to neighborhood sociodemographics, including race, SES, and vacancy rates; of note, the growth cluster was concentrated in the poorest and most heavily vacant neighborhoods. These findings have important implications for efforts to reduce the burden of natural and anthropogenic disasters and other community-level traumas. The results highlight the heterogeneity of outcomes within the same community. Mental health factors are particularly vulnerable. This study indicates that with appropriate response and investment, marginalized communities may demonstrate resilience and even growth following community-level trauma

Economic geography · Geography · Physics · Political science · Wake · Disaster Management and Resilience · Engineering · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Risk Perception and Management