Uncertainty, Information, and Risk in International Technology Races
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 10071583 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Nicholas Emery-Xu (0000-0003-3650-9717, UCLA, autor correspondente), Andrew Park (0000-0003-4080-7274, Uber, San Francisco, CA, USA), Robert Trager (0000-0002-6201-2811, UCLA) |
| Ano | 2023 |
| Volume | 68 |
| Fascículo | 10 |
| Páginas | 2019-2047 |
| Data de publicação | 2023-11-17 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Editora | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00220027231214996 |
| OpenAlex | W7110865419 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 1 |
| Referências citadas | 46 |
A formal model reveals how the information environment affects international races to implement a powerful, dangerous new military technology, which may cause a “disaster” affecting all states. States implementing the technology face a tradeoff between the safety of the technology and performance in the race. States face unknown, private, and public information about capabilities. More decisive races, in which small performance leads produce larger probabilities of victory, are usually more dangerous. In addition, revealing information about rivals’ capabilities has two opposing effects on risk: states discover either that they are far apart in capability and compete less or that they are close in capability and drastically reduce safety to win. Therefore, the public information scenario is less risky than the private information scenario except under high decisiveness. Finally, regardless of information, the larger the eventual loser’s impact on safety relative to the eventual winner’s, the more dangerous is the race
Face (sociological concept · Information system · Information technology · Private information retrieval · Public information · Public opinion · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Game Theory and Applications · International Relations and Foreign Policy
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Sheep in Sheep's clothing
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| Obras citantes distintas | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 1 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 1 |