The Long Shadow of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Nonstate Actor Violence
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10071686 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Dawn Brancati (0000-0003-0392-7154, Thomas J. Watson Jr. School for Public and International Affairs, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Publication date | 2025-07-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00220027251353078 |
| OpenAlex | W4411994348 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 29 |
Early studies of the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on nonstate actor violence presented competing hypotheses and yielded mixed results. Economic arguments primarily claimed that lockdowns would increase violence and implied that their effects would last after lockdowns were lifted. Conversely, logistical arguments claimed that lockdowns would decrease violence and that their effects would endure only as long as lockdowns were in place. Using new, more precise, and comprehensive data and measures, this study directly compares these competing arguments globally. The study finds that both economic and logistical factors affected violence and that violence was lower overall in the short and long term. Logistical factors potentially outweighed economic ones due to the inability of nonstate actors to capitalize fully on the negative economic effects of lockdowns when population movements were disrupted. The study also disaggregates the economic effects of lockdowns, finding the strongest support for state capacity-based arguments
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Criminology · Economics · Outbreak · Political economy · Political science · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · Shadow (psychology · Sociology · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence · Virology
Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects
On economic causes of civil war
A general approach to causal mediation analysis.
Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods
Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects
Covid-19, state capacity, and political violence by non-state actors
Revisiting Event-Study Designs
Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide
The Potential for Violent Extremist Organizations in Africa to Take Advantage of the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis in Ungoverned Spaces
How to prevent the next pandemic
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Lockdown and Unrest
Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines
Reintegrating Rebels into Civilian Life
Resisting Lockdown
A Practical Guide to Counterfactual Estimators for Causal Inference with Time‐Series Cross‐Sectional Data
Fixed-Effects Negative Binomial Regression Models
Measuring state capacity
Locking Down Violence
Can Employment Reduce Lawlessness and Rebellion? A Field Experiment with High-Risk Men in a Fragile State
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |